Republicans in Disarray

[Res Ipsa]

Results of round 10: no substantive change. A few votes shifted from from Donalds to Hearn.

Rumors are flying that a deal is close. Not clear whether that's a deal to get a speaker elected or a vote to adjourn.

[Res Ipsa]

Why are there so many people sitting around taking down the numbers as they answer?

Those are the "tellers." The Clerk appoints a certain number of "tellers" from each party. The vote is not final until the tellers agree on the totals and report them to the Clerk. I'm not sure how many tellers are appointed.

[honorentheos]

So, big picture time.

It seems likely we will see one of two scenarios. One which is very unlikely, is the House votes to change the election rules to require only a plurality of votes to become the next speaker. I only see this happening if McCarthy absolutely refuses to give in, forcing the opposition to decide if they are willing to let Jefferies become Speaker rather than McCarthy take the gavel. I don't know what the odds are, but my instincts say he'd eventually cave to pressure if there is no chance he gets the votes...and I think that's the case.

The other, most likely scenario is bad. That being, the opposition to McCarthy ultimately succeed in forcing the rest of the party to accept their rule changes AND a Speaker who gives them the outsized influence on committee assignments, House rules and business, and defines their priorities in a way that tilts the boat further in the extremist MAGA direction. Slim but unlikely possibilities McCarthy stays in and manages to get holdouts to concede in this direction himself. But he'd have to be willing to be Speaker in name only and really, really denigrate himself to get there and I think he'd ultimately drop out or go nuclear with the plurality change first.

I think there is practically a zero percent chance a moderate Republicans becomes Speaker. The margin is too slim, the entrenched have no incentive to give in. Shamelessness has it's advantages...

I'm feeling dark about this the more I watch. I think the odds are this grabs the Overton window and yanks it hard. Plus, if they end up successful, expect the next Democrat majority to find itself in the same situation. This genie won't go back in the bottle easily.

So there are rumblings of a third unlikely option: Moderate Republicans and Democrats coming together to find a consensus candidate they would support in order to prevent the extremist takeover that seems about to boil over. Of course that hasn't been reported from anyone actually voting but rather comments made by mostly former Representatives expressing their views. Arm chair quarterbacking if you will. I wish it were more likely but ... I just don't see either side actually doing this at the National level. Commentators have pointed to recent similar surprises out of a few state legislatures where moderate coalitions broke extremist gridlock. So maybe. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Doctor Steuss]

If I had puppet strings, I'd make a few Democrats start voting for each person that Boebert et.al. put forth, just for added drama.

"They are the best option we have to advance the liberal agenda...."

[Res Ipsa]

Round 11 -- Fight!!!!!

(1) McCarthy, nominated by I don't care anymore.

(2) Jeffries, ditto.

(3) Donald Trump, nominated by Matt Gaetz

I will never ever ever ever vote for McCarthy. I want to know why the capital architect hasn't replied to my letter complaining about the fact that McCarthy moved his stuff into the Speaker's Office. Get right on that.

(4) Hearn, nominated by Bob Good (VA)

America is the world's greatest nation. There's never been a greater nation. And it's teetering on the brink. The horror!!!!!! We're in crisis!!!!!!!!!! Indoctrination!!!!!!!!! Trampled freedom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [pandemic restrictions] We've got to have a leader with true conservative convictions who is willing to take risks. Not an "establishment creature of the swamp cartel."

NOW, Trump has been nominated.

Vote!!!

ETA: Bob Good was so wound up that he forgot to say who he was nominating before launching into his tirade. I thought I'd just missed it, but found the goof reported in a live blog.

Also, nobody bothered to nominate Donalds. But he totally wasn't being used as a prop. (He's still getting votes.)

[Vēritās]

https://Twitter.com/PaulLeeDicks/status ... sVg79KXPdw

[Res Ipsa]

https://Twitter.com/PaulLeeDicks/status ... sVg79KXPdw

LOL! Looks about right.

[Vēritās]

Lorraine Boebert votes for "Kevin...." counts to three and then says "Hern."

They're not event pretending to be serious people anymore.

[Vēritās]

Trump is on track to lose the Speaker vote more times than he lost Arizona

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Can’t we get six Republicans with a conscience to vote for the Democrat? Why hand the SotH over to whackadoodles? This is .

- Doc