Prediction: Bye, Bye, Biden

[honorentheos]

BREAD MAKES YOU FAT???!!!!!

Just kidding. I'm in a mood tonight I guess.

ETA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9aTMrjactg

LOL! I hope good moods are contagious. (My spell checker in its infinite wisdom produced “god mods.” I hope that’s an omen.

Well, I AM working on session preparation for my D&D game. So kinda spooky

[Dr. Sunstoned]

Sorry to interrupt this pity party. But I thought I would inject a little bit of reality into this gloom fest. I remember hearing once, probably in GC, that it ain't over until the fat lady sings, and she ain't singing 'till November.

Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining

onald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-Trump-p ... ht-1926226

[Jersey Girl]

In an odd turn of events, Biden has been quoted as saying that the only way he'd drop out of the race was if a doctor diagnosed him with an illness that would prevent him from running for office.

Biden has just been diagnosed with Covid 19.

Hang on to that cliff, folks!

My spouse let me know about an hour after I posted that. For a moment, I felt psychic. Then I remembered that he is in his 80s.

I don't know, Kish. My BS detector is pinging a little about the diagnosis.

[Kishkumen]

As far as I know, there is no process that says that if a sitting President withdraws from the race, the sitting Vice President takes his place. If Biden stays in the race, there is no process that requires him to pick Harris as a running mate.

I believe the process is this: If Biden withdraws, he releases his delegates. He can ask them to vote for Harris, but they have no obligation to do so.

Because Ohio has refused to give the customary waiver to its ballot deadline, the nominee must be selected before the convention. So, no floor fight unless Democrats choose to concede Ohio in August.

There have been too many black swans for me to make any sort of prediction, but I think Schumer’s call for Biden to step down is the most significant signal yet.

My Harris prediction is not in reference to an established procedure. It is based on the prevalence of her name in the media conversation, the tendency of VP’s to run after the end of their president’s final term, and her connection to the Biden-Harris successes.

I agree with you on Schumer. I think Pelosi and Schiff are also important. Schiff because of his public role pursuing Trump for J6.

[Kishkumen]

I don't know, Kish. My BS detector is pinging a little about the diagnosis.

I think it is a cover to allow him to bow out with some dignity.

[Kishkumen]

Sorry to interrupt this pity party. But I thought I would inject a little bit of reality into this gloom fest. I remember hearing once, probably in GC, that it ain't over until the fat lady sings, and she ain't singing 'till November.

Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining

onald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-Trump-p ... ht-1926226

Numbers? Polling? Statistics? My gut!!! My gut!!!

[Jersey Girl]

I don't know, Kish. My BS detector is pinging a little about the diagnosis.

I think it is a cover to allow him to bow out with some dignity.

Then I can only conclude that he or his advisors think the American public is dumb. To put the statement that he would only bow out if diagnosed with an illness, etc., and a diagnosis immediately thereafter? That would be an insult to the intelligence of Biden voters.

I guess it doesn't matter.

[Kishkumen]

Then I can only conclude that he or his advisors think the American public is dumb. To put the statement that he would only bow out if diagnosed with an illness, etc., and a diagnosis immediately thereafter? That would be an insult to the intelligence of Biden voters.

I guess it doesn't matter.

I think they are desperate.

[Morley]

I predict that Biden exits the race, and that Harris is the nominee. Then, my final prediction: Trump 47.

That is all.

Yeah, me too. As you know, I posted this prediction after I'd come to this conclusion a week ago. I don't know about the part where Harris becomes the nominee, however. I think Harris is the likely successor, but it's still a little up the air. The convention could bring anything.

I don't believe that a Trump 47 outcome is inevitable. There's going to be an interesting dynamic generated between now and the election. I don't think that Trump gets much of a bump from either the attempted assassination or taking on Vance. Vance brings no value to the ticket for those who weren't already with Trump.



Edit: I don't know that the transfer of campaign funds to another candidate is a problem--as I understand it, campaign finance law allows Biden to release his funds to another Democrat candidate. I also doubt that Ohio is going to end up being much of a barrier.

[Some Schmo]

If the Democrats try to replace Biden, it will be like Clinton taking the rust belt for granted in 2016. Political malpractice.

I think they should calm the “F” down and focus on better messaging for Biden and against Trump. Why are they drawing negative attention to their own guy? It's dumb as crap.