Predictions - 2024 Election

[ceeboo]

With about two weeks left, what are your predictions?

Mine: Trump wins the electoral college fairly easily (300 plus) and Trump, for the first time in a long time, wins the national majority vote (by a fairly slim margin)

Your predictions?

[Xenophon]

I suspect the race will be significantly tighter than that, and I think the odds of Trump winning the popular vote is about 1,000 to 1.

I honestly don't know if I could say beyond a literal coinflip at this time. Gun to head if you make me pick, I'd say Harris will win with Pennsylvania being the critical state.

[I Have Questions]

Trump loses, Trump declares victory, Trump incites a mob to ransack the senate. So pretty much the same as last time.

If, as a country, you vote that abomination of a human into office for a second time, there is no hope for you.

[Manetho]

Trump loses, Trump declares victory, Trump incites a mob to ransack the senate.

It's a bit more difficult when you don't control the military. I guarantee there will be far more security in place this January 6 than there were four years earlier. The Trumpist forces would be very stupid to target the January 6 ballot count again, though of course that doesn't mean they won't try.

I think the odds of Trump winning the popular vote is about 1,000 to 1.

That seems a bit extreme, but I agree that it's highly improbable. Ceeboo's prediction reinforces my argument that conservatives don't know how weird they are in the eyes of most of the country. That said, while Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote, I hesitate to predict anything else.

[Everybody Wang Chung]

Mormons overwhelming support a convicted criminal and sexual predator.

Wait…..Sorry, wrong thread. I was trying to post on the thread about Joseph Smith. My bad.

[Xenophon]

I think the odds of Trump winning the popular vote is about 1,000 to 1.

That seems a bit extreme, but I agree that it's highly improbable. Ceeboo's prediction reinforces my argument that conservatives don't know how weird they are in the eyes of most of the country. That said, while Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote, I hesitate to predict anything else.

I may have been a bit hyperbolic, fair enough. In ceeboo's defense, were Trump to win the popular vote it would likely result in the describe huge electoral win. But I think it is tight enough that just a minor shift in a few percentage points either direction creates a much more likely large electoral win for either candidate. I do agree with you that it is likely too close to call, if I was a betting man I'd probably take Harris just because the odds are good.

To my friends and family that are sweating the polls/predictions/betting markets (for both sides), I've just offered the advice to "go and vote, nothing else to do at this point".

[Morley]

Harris to win the Electoral College and the popular vote, both by significant margins.

[Res Ipsa]

Harris to win the Electoral College and the popular vote, both by significant margins.

Even after disregarding all elements of hopium, that’s where I’m at, too.

[Bond]

Yeah I don't know. Voting Harris and might watch the entire LoTR trilogy extended edition with phone turned off, wifi off, and head phones on. Harris to win popular vote probably and who knows on the EC.

[Dwight]

Under Trump’s own guidelines Harris has more donors, more money, and more people at her rallies, so she should win. She will win EC and popular vote. Media and partisan polls are poisoning the well to make it look closer, but at the end of the day you can’t fake votes.

We will also see Trump and Republicans try to subvert democracy, but it will be squashed by a competent administration. Election boards and possibly as high as a state will refuse to certify Trump losing, but in the end it won’t affect the outcome. In the months following voter fraud by Republicans will be uncovered, insignificant to state or federal races. The Harris campaign has already hired competent legal help, Marc Elias is leading a team of 7000 lawyers, ten times the number Biden at this point, so they won’t be caught flat footed in the courts either. None of those lawyers will be sanctioned and/or disbarred unlike the Trump team of 2020.

I’ll also add that Trump is definitely not getting the popular vote cause my cousin and others in red states that RFK Jr. is still on the ballot are all talking about how they don’t have to worry about “throwing away” their vote by voting for RFK Jr. since Trump is a lock to win the state anyway.