Predictions - 2024 Election

[Kishkumen]

I can't predict, except perhaps predict that there will be many millions of very frightened people the day after the election. They will be frightened because they have been made to believe, accurately or not, that they are headed into a dystopian nightmare. In the case of Trump, that belief could be justified. In the case of Harris, that belief is, well, dumb. Harris is a former prosecutor and gun owner. Her own sexuality is clearly hetero. Why anyone would be afraid of her is beyond me. I mean, heck, she doesn't go around talking about the "good things" Hitler did, right?

[Some Schmo]

With about two weeks left, what are your predictions?

Mine: Trump wins the electoral college fairly easily (300 plus) and Trump, for the first time in a long time, wins the national majority vote (by a fairly slim margin)

I hope most Republicans believe this and that it depresses Trump's vote.

I have no idea who's going to win between American grift and our better angels. I know the American people are not the most sophisticated voters, so it's very hard to say. We've already gone through that hell once, and people have forgotten how bad it was.

I'd like to join Trump and recommend all his followers ingest bleach to cure their sniffles before they vote. If it's good enough for Trump, it's obviously good enough for you, right?

[Sliding ceeboo's fainting couch underneath him for his inevitable fall]

[canpakes]

[Sliding ceeboo's fainting couch underneath him for his inevitable fall]

You’ll have to wrestle it away from J. D. Vance, first.

[Some Schmo]

[Sliding ceeboo's fainting couch underneath him for his inevitable fall]

You’ll have to wrestle it away from J. D. Vance, first.

Good point.

Hopefully, ceeboo's wearing a hazmat suit to avoid getting his clothes dirty. I doubt he wants his own version of a Monica Lewinski dress.

[honorentheos]

It's a tough one to call. My sense of where the swing states could go is as follows:

For Trump:
Georgia
North Carolina

For Harris:
Wisconsin
Michigan

Lean to Trump:
Nevada
Arizona

Lean to Harris:
Pennsylvania

That would be a 270-268 win for Harris. Pennsylvania really seems like the deciding state as a couple of the others could go to the other way but Pennsylvania will outweigh them.

I don't think Harris will lose the popular vote.

I'd also like to be pleasantly surprised by Arizona at least.

[Brack]

Harris will likely win the national popular vote. But she might not win the EC.

Trump is probably going to win Arizona this time around. Arizona Republicans have embraced early voting during this election cycle. And there are a few Arizona people who are voting for both Trump and Democrat Senate candidate Gallego.

CBS News Trump-Harris poll finds Trump with slight edge in close race in Arizona

It’s a somewhat different picture in the race for U.S. Senate: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points. Gallego is helped by some Republicans and independents who are splitting their ticket by voting for Trump for president and against Lake for Senate, who most Arizona voters say is extreme.

Trump is also probably going to win Nevada this time around. Clark County, NV has become less Democrat-leaning over the last several years. It could mainly be due to the Harry Reid machine not being as powerful there as it was several years ago.

As for the 3 battleground rustbelt states, I think that Harris will win two of these states with Trump winning one of them.

And as for GA and NC, Trump will likely win at least one of these states.

[Moksha]

Murphy's law will kick in and Trump will be elected. True to his promise, on the first day he will imprison political opponents. A few days later, the Night of Broken Glass will begin. Within a month Project 2025 will almost be complete and the United States government will be no more.

The Tabernacle Choir on Temple Square, Kid Rock, and a video of the January 6th Patriots will be featured at the Trump inauguration. Also, letters of congratulations from Viktor Orban, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un will be read.

[dantana]

Luckily for our side, (the good guys) much of Trump's base don't get out and actually vote. I'd say that a common personality characteristic of that type of person - the Jordan Klepper interviewee type is https://youtu.be/-9ggGv17wSc - heavy on bravado and light on action.

And it's Camelhair by a nose at the wire.

[Dr. Sunstoned]

Harris to win the Electoral College and the popular vote, both by significant margins.

I agree. The press and the polls predicted a red wave for the midterm elections in 2022, but that didn’t happen. Trump, despite being the incumbent, lost in 2020. As a result, I believe Harris will win both the Electoral College and the popular vote by significant margins.

[honorentheos]

Harris to win the Electoral College and the popular vote, both by significant margins.

I agree. The press and the polls predicted a red wave for the midterm elections in 2022, but that didn’t happen. Trump, despite being the incumbent, lost in 2020. As a result, I believe Harris will win both the Electoral College and the popular vote by significant margins.

Could be. But the polls continue to learn and adjust. The majority of results for national polls seem to have the differences between Harris and Trump within the margins of error for the poll making most claims about who is leading suspect. I don't feel confident.

In 2016 most polls missed a few demographic nuances that turned out to matter to the result. For example, states who went for Bernie in the Democratic primary such as Michigan didn't turn out for Clinton despite her showing being up there. Nationally a noticable chunk of men who had voted for Obama just didn't vote. I suspect that Harris has unfortunate gender bias headwinds among Democrat voters that don't show in polls but could show up in voting behavior and will matter in swing states.

There are plenty of folks who don't think the election matters. I'm sure folks on the board know presidential elections have the highest turn out of the electorate but even then barely get into the 60% participation rate of eligible voters. 2020 set a record at 66% and current expectations are we won't have that high a rate this election. That apathy is concerning as it reflects the lack of attention folks pay to matters that deeply effect them. And so many who do participate do so with minimal decision making involved. Large amounts of money are being spent now with a winking nod to the fact the best hoped for outcomes are to fatigue opposition voters to the point they don't vote.

That's all to say, I'm concerned but not hopeless.