Predictions - 2024 Election

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Based on the recent polls in Kansas and Iowa, Harris gets a larger share of the popular and electoral votes than Biden in 2020.

They definitely look very positive but I'm trying not to huff too much copium here. My gut still says a close race but maybe not as tight as I previously thought. My hope is that I'm just being overly pessimistic and we're looking at 350 plus.

Ditto. I hope Lichtman is right, because he’s sticking with his prediction.

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

Based on the recent polls in Kansas and Iowa, Harris gets a larger share of the popular and electoral votes than Biden in 2020.

They definitely look very positive but I'm trying not to huff too much copium here. My gut still says a close race but maybe not as tight as I previously thought. My hope is that I'm just being overly pessimistic and we're looking at 350 plus.

I’d say hopium instead of copium. It’s the hope that people have been paying attention to Trump’s mental and physical disintegration over the last couple of months and decided “this isn’t acceptable.” The lying isn’t acceptable. The dehumanizing isn’t acceptable. The violent rhetoric isn’t acceptable. The sexual crudeness isn’t acceptable. Donald Trump isn’t acceptable as a presidential candidate.

In the Iowa poll, Trump was losing white, independent women by 28%. Those are votes he’s relying on in the swing states. My hope is that this election is a turning point where Americans finally get it through our thick heads that a woman’s role in our society is whatever she damn well wants it to be.

Here’s hoping.

[Marcus]

They definitely look very positive but I'm trying not to huff too much copium here. My gut still says a close race but maybe not as tight as I previously thought. My hope is that I'm just being overly pessimistic and we're looking at 350 plus.

Ditto. I hope Lichtman is right, because he’s sticking with his prediction.

- Doc

Same here. He has a well established track record.

[Marcus]

I'm going to make another run at your comment, Ceebs, and you're not gonna like it. Fair warning.



The posters in question are not an intolerant ideological mob, relentless board bullies who assualt specific members of this board. They are posters who are wearing themselves out trying to get you to engage and you refuse to do so. In that regard, they see you as disingenuous of them and in turn, their respect for you has eroded over time.

How do I know? You're essentially me 25 years ago.

When I was repeatedly called disingenuous (among other things!) I didn't even know what the word meant. I didn't know how much I was frustrating them. Not these guys (though some of them are here for sure) but the posters you were thinking about when you wrote those comments above. I didn't know what the hell they were talking about half the time anyway. It was all new to me and so was a board new to me, and ZERO moderation thanks very much. And so was really thinking new to me.

The next day after my first post (I had to look around and try to figure out what a threaded view was and how to read it) some guy commented "Just another Fundie, she'll be gone in a week."

I stayed 8+ years until we killed the board. Long story.

One guy regularly attacked me (that's putting it mildly) and attacked me for weeks. I was one of very few believers on that board and completely outnumbered by male posters. I don't know what got into me but I decided I wanted to continue posting and so I turned the tables and started to attack him back. People left that board because of our wars. I wouldn't stop and neither would he. I guess I established myself as something or other, or they just thought I was teachable because one by one...my adversaries started to email me to get to know me, advise me, or teach me how to do something. Heck one poster who just about wore me out on a regular basis trying to keep up with his Part 1, Part 1a, b, Part 2 style of replies (who posted here but stopped) actually taught me how to copy/paste in real time right on that board. I answered all his replies by the way.

So that one person who relentlessly attacked me (You think what you're getting is relentless? I laugh in your face, Ceebs!) kept at it but I noticed he had the respect of other posters on account of his intelligence. No denying that. So I started printing out his posts to me and (this is God's honest truth) took a Sharpie to block out his attacks and insults...then I tried my best to reply to his actual comments. It worked. Those were my FIRST attempts ever at actually engaging. It worked and there developed the actual exchange of ideas and some long term e-friendships with people I trust implicitly. Some of them are growing old with me right here on MDB. Stay in the trenches long enough and you get to know who people really are.

I never threw up my hands.
I never complained that I was being attacked.
I never called them bullies.
I never described them as a mob.

They called the board an intellectual meat grinder. I got my ass handed to me on a regular basis. But the more I studied what he and others posted about the more I realized I could learn from them and I did. They knew about things I never even knew existed and some were legit professors. Kind of like that recent post I made here when I said I didn't know anything about politics and how the guys here supported my learning and never called me stupid for asking questions about what I didn't know.

The posters you had in mind when you made those comments have been knocking themselves out trying to get you to engage and you're not. What I see in a lot of your responses is deflection. Another word I wasn't familiar with all those years ago. I did the very same thing.

This here that you wrote when I said the thread was becoming ugly:



That's deflection. How do I know? Because you point the finger outward, set up a hyperbolic strawman, but nowhere in that comment do you acknowledge your part in the situation that you took part in creating. There's no YOU in your remarks. The guys aren't just flat out looking for your blood in the water, Ceeboo. They're looking for discussion and you aren't meeting them half way.

And the "specific" members you think they're targeting? They're posters (I can name them, they're on my ignore list) who haven't fact checked and keep repeating falsehoods, who deflect and refuse to engage.

Anyway enough of my war stories. There is opportunity for personal and intellectual growth here if you are willing to receive it by taking part in it and let others benefit from you as well.

I feel like we had this conversation before. I'm not doing this again. Take some time to self reflect. It could help.

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I wanted to say this too, since we're in the 11th hour of the election deal.

A while back in reply to my own comments, you said you wouldn't attempt to say what you think God is doing right now. I, personally, have no problem observing what I think I see going on spiritually and saying what I think God is doing in the world. Could I be wrong? Sure. I'm not afraid to be wrong. I do believe I'm allowed to say how God is moving in the world and toward what effort...because if I'm not familiar with some of the ways in which God has moved in the history of mankind then I think I'm not paying attention to what scripture describes or what is going on in the world. I mean if we're supposed to pay attention to signs of the End Times then I figure we're supposed to pay attention to everything, to try to see where God is working so we can join Him in that effort.

So let me say what I think God is doing right now. It doesn't matter to my ego if I'm right or wrong. It's simply what I think I see happening and why I think it is happening.

I think and believe that God allowed Trump to emerge to the forefront in order to test the American public in much the same way that we saw him repeatedly test Israel and individuals in scripture. I think that via his behavior and rhetoric, Trump opened the door to the what should I call it...similar behaviors on the part those who had an underlying predisposition for hatred, contempt, bigotry, racism, misogyny, etc. so that it became normalized to the point where our society now has a huge mess on it's hands.

There's a saying in my field of work regarding child development. A child has to experience what too much is to learn to know what enough is.

On Tuesday night...our test results will be in. Have we learned what too much is and are we willing to draw the line?

You know in scripture how God went hands off and left people to their own mess? That, Ceeboo, that. Exactly that.

And we'll just see how it goes...

You’re just another Fundie, Jersey Girl. You’ll be gone in a week.

: D

It's been a very, very long week!!!

...That's deflection. How do I know? Because you point the finger outward, set up a hyperbolic strawman, but nowhere in that comment do you acknowledge your part in the situation that you took part in creating. There's no YOU in your remarks. The guys aren't just flat out looking for your blood in the water, Ceeboo. They're looking for discussion and you aren't meeting them half way...

I can only hope he reads your post. On a lighter note, hopefully it would result in the word "moron" being retired. It's past time for that to leave his vocabulary.

[Xenophon]

I’d say hopium instead of copium. It’s the hope that people have been paying attention to Trump’s mental and physical disintegration over the last couple of months and decided “this isn’t acceptable.” The lying isn’t acceptable. The dehumanizing isn’t acceptable. The violent rhetoric isn’t acceptable. The sexual crudeness isn’t acceptable. Donald Trump isn’t acceptable as a presidential candidate.

In the Iowa poll, Trump was losing white, independent women by 28%. Those are votes he’s relying on in the swing states. My hope is that this election is a turning point where Americans finally get it through our thick heads that a woman’s role in our society is whatever she damn well wants it to be.

Here’s hoping.

Fair enough, I mostly just mean I hope I've had my brain open and am not deluding myself about the prospect.

As to the rest of your post, all I can say is "amen, brother".

[honorentheos]

So here's a less hopeful prediction. I thing the odds are if Arizona goes for Harris there will be violence in the streets here.

[canpakes]

So here's a less hopeful prediction. I thing the odds are if Arizona goes for Harris there will be violence in the streets here.

Make ready the cholla trebuchet!

[Bret Ripley]

So here's a less hopeful prediction. I thing the odds are if Arizona goes for Harris there will be violence in the streets here.

Washington State and Oregon will certainly go for Harris, and with ballot drop boxes already having been attacked both states have placed National Guard units on stand by. Weird times.

[dantana]

So here's a less hopeful prediction. I thing the odds are if Arizona goes for Harris there will be violence in the streets here.

Washington State and Oregon will certainly go for Harris, and with ballot drop boxes already having been attacked both states have placed National Guard units on stand by. Weird times.

Yeah, Oregon and Washington, like just about everywhere, the cities go blue and the counties are all on the idiot flyer.
Here in my little town outside of Eugene someone recently broke into the post office and stole the keys to the outside mail collection boxes. (Oregon has been vote by mail only since late 90's) The local talking heads are pretty sure it's people from the idiot flyer.

I have two boys who are in the Guard and also ride the flyer. What will they do when called up to put down an idiot uprising? Grab their gear and stow their swagger, I'm guessing.

[honorentheos]

Washington State and Oregon will certainly go for Harris, and with ballot drop boxes already having been attacked both states have placed National Guard units on stand by. Weird times.

Yeah, Oregon and Washington, like just about everywhere, the cities go blue and the counties are all on the idiot flyer.
Here in my little town outside of Eugene someone recently broke into the post office and stole the keys to the outside mail collection boxes. (Oregon has been vote by mail only since late 90's) The local talking heads are pretty sure it's people from the idiot flyer.

I have two boys who are in the Guard and also ride the flyer. What will they do when called up to put down an idiot uprising? Grab their gear and stow their swagger, I'm guessing.

Thanks for sharing, dantana, I wasn't aware of that incident in Eugene. Crazy times for sure.