The Real Reason why Trump won

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canpakes
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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yellowstone123 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:26 pm
Please correct me if I’m wrong but if inflation slows that means the price of certain products don’t increase significantly, but it doesn’t mean that the price of those items reverse to what they were years ago.
You’ve got it right, Yellowstone. No guarantees that anything comes back down in cost.

There are always exceptions for unusual conditions, like what we saw during and after the pandemic, for commodities pricing. Check out the spikes in lumber futures:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/123 ... price-usa/

Groceries seem a lot more resilient to price reductions, though. And manufacturers of branded foodstuffs can always employ shrinkflation to give the appearance of a stable or lowered cost after a general increase, but this is illusory. At that point, a manufacturer is unlikely to go back to a 32-oz. jar after downsizing to a 28-oz jar, as example.
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Re: ~

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Gunnar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:14 pm
Moksha wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:25 am
So why did the Democrats fail to rig the voting this time?
Like they did last time you mean? :roll: :roll: I realize, of course, that your implication that they did last time was "tongue in cheek." I think we both know that if Kamala had won (especially had she won by a large margin), Trump and his sycophants would be screaming endlessly about the election being stolen - again!
And herein lies the rub: If Kamela had won, we would be hearing about the stolen election from Ajax for the next four years, and Trump would be swaying to the YMCA song from a walker.
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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Canpakes wrote:Groceries seem a lot more resilient to price reductions, though.
Groceries are apparently the number 1 problem with the economy people have. Yellowstone's observation is a great one. His very point has been on my mind; it's going to come up with my right-wing friend here eventually.

I guarantee you that the average vote for Trump "the inflation fixer" means deflation -- prices lowering back to what they were before the pandemic. We're usually speaking of inflation in terms of the rate of inflation, and a low rate of inflation means prices continue to go up, but more slowly. If Trump somehow achieves a perfect target inflation rate of 2%, it's going to be tough to explain that to the average Trumper who was expecting prices to fall by 50%. Prices will still be higher than they are now, even if inflation gets fixed. Fixed means +2% per year.
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canpakes
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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Gadianton wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 3:16 am
Canpakes wrote:Groceries seem a lot more resilient to price reductions, though.
Groceries are apparently the number 1 problem with the economy people have. Yellowstone's observation is a great one. His very point has been on my mind; it's going to come up with my right-wing friend here eventually.

I guarantee you that the average vote for Trump "the inflation fixer" means deflation -- prices lowering back to what they were before the pandemic. We're usually speaking of inflation in terms of the rate of inflation, and a low rate of inflation means prices continue to go up, but more slowly. If Trump somehow achieves a perfect target inflation rate of 2%, it's going to be tough to explain that to the average Trumper who was expecting prices to fall by 50%. Prices will still be higher than they are now, even if inflation gets fixed. Fixed means +2% per year.
And shrinkflation will help to conceal actual inflation and attempt to fool consumers into thinking that prices are stabilizing, when they actually are not, based on reduced weight/quantity:

”General Mills made headlines when its Cocoa Puffs family-size box shrank from 19.3oz to 18.1oz, with no price reduction. Similarly, PepsiCo came under fire for reducing its Gatorade bottles from 32oz to 28oz, amounting to a 14% price increase per ounce. Even Frito-Lay's family-size Lay's chips dropped from 10.5oz to 9.75oz, while Doritos now contain about five fewer chips per bag than just a few years ago.

But these aren't isolated cases - shrinkflation is widespread. Mondelez International downsized Ritz Crackers and Oreo packs by 10-15%, with no corresponding price cut. Hostess Brands has quietly reduced Twinkies portions, while Pringles saw a 14g reduction per can under Kellanova, driving up the cost for each hyperbolic paraboloid chip for consumers. Additionally, Walkers, a Uk-centric savory snack brand owned by PepsiCo, reduced the size of its crisps bags from 32.5g to 30g, while maintaining prices. General Mills also reduced the size of Nature Valley granola bars, cutting down the weight per bar but keeping the cost the same.”


https://www.bakeryandsnacks.com/Article ... on-tactics

Producers have also counted on ‘inelastic consumer demand’ to allow keeping higher prices in place on their items long after raw material prices dropped. PepsiCo tried this with its soft drinks until folks began to tire of paying nearly twice as much for their sugar water as they had been 3 years earlier. The company finally had a ‘Come to Jesus’ moment when revenue fell and they saw the writing on the wall. But soft drink prices remain oddly inflated because producers realize that most consumers will eventually need their fix, and with that being the established behavior, just what would motivate them to lower prices further?

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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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Brack wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:13 pm
Turnout isn't the reason why Trump won with Harris having lost. Out of the seven battleground states, turnout was higher in at least three of these states from 2020. And Harris received more votes than Biden in the states of Wisconsin and Georgia.
Update on this point. Out of the seven battleground states, turnout was higher in six of these states from 2020. And Harris received more votes than Biden in the states of Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.
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ceeboo wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2024 4:33 pm
My understanding is that they are still counting votes from a few Western states and the projected final totals will look something approaching this: Trump 76-77 million and Harris 74-75 million - Totaling approximately 150-152 million votes (2020's total was 155 million) - So I'm not sure how much "low voter turnout" is in play here.

Anyway, that's my understanding.
Yeah, thanks, ceeboo. It was not as low as I had at first thought.
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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Vēritās wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:04 pm
In a nutshell, low voter turnout.

...
Which is the result of how bad the Harris campaign was conducted and the overtly unappealing DNC platform.
The nutshell is the symptom.
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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Subgenius, welcome back.
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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As of today, the official count of votes indicates that Trump got slightly fewer than 50% of the votes. Not that this really matters, other than to throw cold water on their "we got a mandate" nonsense.

Of the 244 million eligible voters only 154 million actually voted, and only 31% voted for the guy who ended up winning the electoral college.

The difference in the election boiled down to a measly 220 thousand votes between the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada.

Kamala received 7 million fewer votes than Biden got in 2020.

I think people jot got overwhelmed and burnt out on politics because to some, it just seemed like nothing really matters anymore. I think that is the winning right wing strategy and the only real genius behind Trump's method. He has been doing this all his life, manipulating public perception by lying. Just pummel the people with an onslaught barrage of never-ending BS and gaslighting.

We literally just elected a guy who was pretending to perform a blowjob on a microphone and accused Haitians (legally present) of eating our pets, just prior to the election. A guy who was indicted on dozens of felony counts and was awaiting sentencing, and was only running for President to avoid going to jail. A guy who was able to exercise the worst form of corruption only seen in Banana Republic style governments. I mean, he literally had his hand picked judges - who were only picked because they were going to be loyal to him over the Constitution - grant him immunity for all his crimes, and now he is rewarding all of his sycophantic bootlickers like with high paid government positions in his cabinet for no other reason than he knows they will be loyal to him, and not the Constitution. We've gone off the rails fast and hard as a country.

And now these idiots are suddenly going to be talking about how awesome the economy is as Trump once again takes credit for all of the accomplishments created by a Democrat administration.
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Re: ~

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the immigration problem would have been substantially improved had Trump not ordered craven Republicans to stop already agreed upon improvements to the border security situation solely for the selfish reason that he didn't want anything good to happen that he could not take sole or primary credit for.
What exactly is the immigration problem in your view?
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