Predictions - 2024 Election

[Everybody Wang Chung]

Classy Trump supporters near me

Drumdude, thanks for posting this. I'm always looking for investment opportunities and I think I will call that number.

[canpakes]

The campaign has other extra special titles for their extra special base.

Every night, Trump personally reviews the list of contributors and bestows upon those that are worthy enough titles that recognize their superior status amongst their lesser neighbors.

No, really. He does. That award is totally real, and he’s gonna send it to you if you send money to him. He’ll even sign your award with a Sharpie.

[canpakes]

Drumdude, thanks for posting this. I'm always looking for investment opportunities and I think I will call that number.

Everybody Wang Chung, have you considered investing in Trump Trading Cards?

[Everybody Wang Chung]

Drumdude, thanks for posting this. I'm always looking for investment opportunities and I think I will call that number.

Everybody Wang Chung, have you considered investing in Trump Trading Cards?

Only $99! What a bargain. My only regret in life is that I didn't go to Trump University when I had the chance.

[Jesse Pinkman]

It's a tough one to call. My sense of where the swing states could go is as follows:

For Trump:
Georgia
North Carolina

For Harris:
Wisconsin
Michigan

Lean to Trump:
Nevada
Arizona

Lean to Harris:
Pennsylvania

That would be a 270-268 win for Harris. Pennsylvania really seems like the deciding state as a couple of the others could go to the other way but Pennsylvania will outweigh them.

I don't think Harris will lose the popular vote.

I'd also like to be pleasantly surprised by Arizona at least.

I’m in NC voting for Harris! She has been campaigning hard here. I hope it makes a difference. I was shocked when I found out that my ex-husband is voting for Trump. All 3 of my kids, my current husband and I are all voting for Harris. Hopefully, our votes will cancel his out.

[ceeboo]

Hay JP - Long time. Hope all is well with you and yours.

I’m in NC voting for Harris! She has been campaigning hard here. I hope it makes a difference. I was shocked when I found out that my ex-husband is voting for Trump. All 3 of my kids, my current husband and I are all voting for Harris. Hopefully, our votes will cancel his out.

All 3 of your kids, your current husband, and you equal 5 votes. Your ex-husband equals 1 vote. So, rather than hoping that your 5 votes will cancel out his 1 vote, I can definitely assure you that your votes will more than cancel out his vote. Promise.

[Jesse Pinkman]

Hay JP - Long time. Hope all is well with you and yours.

I’m in NC voting for Harris! She has been campaigning hard here. I hope it makes a difference. I was shocked when I found out that my ex-husband is voting for Trump. All 3 of my kids, my current husband and I are all voting for Harris. Hopefully, our votes will cancel his out.

All 3 of your kids, your current husband, and you equal 5 votes. Your ex-husband equals 1 vote. So, rather than hoping that your 5 votes will cancel out his 1 vote, I can definitely assure you that your votes will more than cancel out his vote. Promise.

Good to see you, too, Ceeboo!

[honorentheos]

It's a tough one to call. My sense of where the swing states could go is as follows:

For Trump:
Georgia
North Carolina

For Harris:
Wisconsin
Michigan

Lean to Trump:
Nevada
Arizona

Lean to Harris:
Pennsylvania

That would be a 270-268 win for Harris. Pennsylvania really seems like the deciding state as a couple of the others could go to the other way but Pennsylvania will outweigh them.

I don't think Harris will lose the popular vote.

I'd also like to be pleasantly surprised by Arizona at least.

I’m in NC voting for Harris! She has been campaigning hard here. I hope it makes a difference. I was shocked when I found out that my ex-husband is voting for Trump. All 3 of my kids, my current husband and I are all voting for Harris. Hopefully, our votes will cancel his out.

Hey Jesse, good to hear from you!

It would be nice if NC goes to Harris so fingers crossed. But of the states that are too close to call I think NC is the least likely to go that way.

[Res Ipsa]

It’s really Hard election to predict, and I don’t envy either the non partisan polling outfit or the poll aggregators. Microtargeting has gotten crazy specific, and I’m not sure pollsters can tell whether or not their sampling adequately captures the markets that the campaigns are targeting. Likewise, how can a pollster construct a likely voter screen when they aren’t sure who the campaigns are targeting.

I saw an interview with Trump’s campaign managers a few months ago — before Biden dropped out. They aren’t stupid. They know that Trump has a pretty hard ceiling at 46-47% with his base motivated to vote. So they knew that had to get a chunk of votes from outside his base. in my opinion, that’s a tough job with such a polarizing candidate. So, in what will likely be praised as genius or combined as lunacy (depending on the result), the campaign microtargeted demographic groups of low propensity voters, particularly young, black men. Get enough of those people who don’t usually vote to vote for Trump, and you have the needed extra voters.

I think that Biden withdrawing from the race may have undercut the young black man part of the strategy. When Obama ran, blacks folks who didn’t usually vote turned up at the polls. Will Harris’s candidacy have a similar effect. Perhaps that reduces the pool of young, black male voters available for Trump to pick up.

Both candidates used non-traditional media sources to try and pick up voters. If that’s effective at reaching lower propensity voters, the pollsters will learn it when we do.

I’ve been looking for trends in late breaking voters. Harris seems to have a pretty big edge there. I’m also looking at the “closing arguments.” One campaign is upbeat, optimistic, and has more universalist messages. The other is highly negative and just can’t seem to avoid alienating voters that it likely needs to win. All in all, I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

[Dr. Sunstoned]

Trump's racist and vulgar Madison Square Garden rally was not well received by the press and by the Latino community. Not a good way to close out a campaign. My guess is this will have an impact on the next set of polls and hopefully the election.