200 year fad

[_capt jack]

The Church still nets almost a million members every three years. That is growth.

Jason, they aren't netting a million members every three years. There are a million adult baptisms or baby blessings, but there aren't a million new, active, productive members joining the church every three years.

They can't even get 25% self-id rates in census counts in the "Big 3" in Latin America: Mexico, Chile, and Brazil. If they ever get serious about eliminating from the rolls Mormons who don't even know they're Mormons, they'll lose over a million in those three countries alone. If similar self-id rates exist across Latin America--and I think they do--a purge of church rolls in the rest of hemisphere would wipe another million from the books.

[_Sethbag]

The Church still nets almost a million members every three years. That is growth.

An apt description indeed, if unintentional in the sense I read into that. But as was said, there's no million new active, believing members every three years. For heaven's sake, I think it's been fairly convincingly shown that there probably aren't more than 4 million believing members out of the total membership as it is, much less that 1 million of those joined in the last three years.

I wish reason would hold sway and the LDS growth would decline, but given Scientology and all the other whacky churches out there are still growing, not to mention the JWs, Assemblies of God, and some others, I wouldn't say I could agree with the OP. Remember what PT Barnum said...

[_Jason Bourne]

Jason, they aren't netting a million members every three years. There are a million adult baptisms or baby blessings, but there aren't a million new, active, productive members joining the church every three years.

Yes they are. The NET number goes up by about a million every 3-3.5 years. Take the past 6 year or so and do the pluses and the minuses of convert baptisms, child of records and net increases which does account for death and departure. And I did not say productive member either. but even if it is 30-40% there is still net growth albeit slow.

[_Mercury]

Jason, they aren't netting a million members every three years. There are a million adult baptisms or baby blessings, but there aren't a million new, active, productive members joining the church every three years.

Yes they are. The NET number goes up by about a million every 3-3.5 years. Take the past 6 year or so and do the pluses and the minuses of convert baptisms, child of records and net increases which does account for death and departure. And I did not say productive member either. but even if it is 30-40% there is still net growth albeit slow.

Jason, your skewed opinion in this matter is once again wrong, clouded by what you want to see and your wishful thinking.

[_capt jack]

Yes they are. The NET number goes up by about a million every 3-3.5 years. Take the past 6 year or so and do the pluses and the minuses of convert baptisms, child of records and net increases which does account for death and departure. And I did not say productive member either. but even if it is 30-40% there is still net growth albeit slow.

Others have run those numbers, and there are serious problems with them.

30-40% retention of new "converts" is a fantastic pipe dream in the part of the developing world I'm familiar with. In fact, I'd wager that if they get 10% retention they'd be ecstatic. And most of that 10% are baptisms that are related by blood or marriage to Mormons; people missionaries find tracting or doing questions on the street that have no other connection to Mormonism probably have a 1% retention rate.

The result of all that: wards with thousands on the books and less than 100 in attendance. Wards, like my in-laws' in Chile where every adult has three callings. Where my sister-in-law, as part of the terms for getting her PEF loan, had to teach seminary and was expected to visit all the inactive kids in her ward weekly. All 100 of them. Same thing holds true in Argentina, where other relatives of mine regularly tell me about the latest nuts the missionaries baptize and who manage to disappear before their clothes dry. Adding insult to injury, my people on both sides of the Andes have to listen to "Area Authorities" berate them for their low home teaching rates and how few of their young men make it to the Melchizedek Priesthood.

The result? Many of the long-term members in these countries are leaving, tired of trying to make dwarf wards and stakes work.

With net growth like that, Mercury's prediction will come true.

[_Mercury]

Yes they are. The NET number goes up by about a million every 3-3.5 years. Take the past 6 year or so and do the pluses and the minuses of convert baptisms, child of records and net increases which does account for death and departure. And I did not say productive member either. but even if it is 30-40% there is still net growth albeit slow.

Others have run those numbers, and there are serious problems with them.

30-40% retention of new "converts" is a fantastic pipe dream in the part of the developing world I'm familiar with. In fact, I'd wager that if they get 10% retention they'd be ecstatic. And most of that 10% are baptisms that are related by blood or marriage to Mormons; people missionaries find tracting or doing questions on the street that have no other connection to Mormonism probably have a 1% retention rate.

The result of all that: wards with thousands on the books and less than 100 in attendance. Wards, like my in-laws' in Chile where every adult has three callings. Where my sister-in-law, as part of the terms for getting her PEF loan, had to teach seminary and was expected to visit all the inactive kids in her ward weekly. [you]All 100 of them[/you]. Same thing holds true in Argentina, where other relatives of mine regularly tell me about the latest nuts the missionaries baptize and who manage to disappear before their clothes dry. Adding insult to injury, my people on both sides of the Andes have to listen to "Area Authorities" berate them for their low home teaching rates and how few of their young men make it to the Melchizedek Priesthood.

The result? Many of the long-term members in these countries are leaving, tired of trying to make dwarf wards and stakes work.

With net growth like that, Mercury's prediction will come true.

In its entirety the "growth" the members believe exists is a product of wishful thinking and grossly doctored statistics. The census data alone spells cooked books. The LDS corporation will retreat once again to utah where they will slowly pawn off their holdings to fund projects outside the scope of the "religion", further distancing the business from the religion. The Mormon elite will prosper, take the equity they have and continue to piss all over those who buy into the Mormon elites financing system also known as the Mormon "church".

Jason, this is a reality. Accept it or fall further into the continual self deception you seem to enjoy.

[_Runtu]

Others have run those numbers, and there are serious problems with them.

30-40% retention of new "converts" is a fantastic pipe dream in the part of the developing world I'm familiar with. In fact, I'd wager that if they get 10% retention they'd be ecstatic. And most of that 10% are baptisms that are related by blood or marriage to Mormons; people missionaries find tracting or doing questions on the street that have no other connection to Mormonism probably have a 1% retention rate.

The result of all that: wards with thousands on the books and less than 100 in attendance. Wards, like my in-laws' in Chile where every adult has three callings. Where my sister-in-law, as part of the terms for getting her PEF loan, had to teach seminary and was expected to visit all the inactive kids in her ward weekly. [you]All 100 of them[/you]. Same thing holds true in Argentina, where other relatives of mine regularly tell me about the latest nuts the missionaries baptize and who manage to disappear before their clothes dry. Adding insult to injury, my people on both sides of the Andes have to listen to "Area Authorities" berate them for their low home teaching rates and how few of their young men make it to the Melchizedek Priesthood.

The result? Many of the long-term members in these countries are leaving, tired of trying to make dwarf wards and stakes work.

With net growth like that, Mercury's prediction will come true.

That's been my experience as well. In the developing world, there are a lot of members on paper, but very few active. My friend recently returned from Bolivia, where he said that almost none of the people he knew were still active and the buildings are as empty as they were when we were missionaries. The temple relies on North American missionaries to run, and few members attend it.

The problem for the church is that convert growth is a mirage. It's happening in the developing world, and the retention rate is, as you said, abysmal. You really can't grasp how bad it is until you've been in a stake that has 8 wards and 4 buildings, but each ward has around 15-20 people attending regularly.

In Europe and North America, I think we're all familiar with the kinds of people the church is baptizing. Very few families, very few people with education. Mostly they are getting single people with financial and emotional problems. The church has always had its greatest success with people at a vulnerable state, such as a move or a death in the family, and now the church is getting the people who are chronically vulnerable.

As I said, the birthrate among the committed will keep the church going, but it is long since past its prime. It will gradually begin to shrink eventually, but probably not in my lifetime.

[_Doctor Steuss]

I think it is too much of a social construct to ever completely go away. Beliefs might meld, some of the dogmas may be abandoned, and maybe even belief in G-d could go out the window... but, in the end, the social construct would remain.

Being a "Mormon" has become almost like being a "Jew." It is as much a cultural/social identification as a religious one. Even in my days of bar-hopping, pot-smoking, acid-dropping, shroom-tripping, hippie-flipping, ecstasy-loving, heathenish ways, I always identified myself as a “Mormon.”

[_Runtu]

I think it is too much of a social construct to ever completely go away. Beliefs might meld, some of the dogmas may be abandoned, and maybe even belief in G-d could go out the window... but, in the end, the social construct would remain.

Being a "Mormon" has become almost like being a "Jew." It is as much a cultural/social identification as a religious one. Even in my days of bar-hopping, pot-smoking, acid-dropping, shroom-tripping, hippie-flipping, ecstasy-loving, heathenish ways, I always identified myself as a “Mormon.”

I disagree, but not entirely. I think you're right that it will never entirely go away, for exactly the reason you mention. However, being a Mormon requires levels of commitment that most self-identified Jews could never relate to. Paradoxically, however, it's the commitment that keeps the church going because people are so heavily invested. You may have self-identified as a Mormon, but you weren't exactly a Mormon in any meaningful sense. And that's what I see happening: Mormonism being more of a quasi-ethnic identity but with little meaning as to belief and behavior.

[_Mercury]

I think it is too much of a social construct to ever completely go away. Beliefs might meld, some of the dogmas may be abandoned, and maybe even belief in G-d could go out the window... but, in the end, the social construct would remain.

Being a "Mormon" has become almost like being a "Jew." It is as much a cultural/social identification as a religious one. Even in my days of bar-hopping, pot-smoking, acid-dropping, shroom-tripping, hippie-flipping, ecstasy-loving, heathenish ways, I always identified myself as a “Mormon.”

I disagree, but not entirely. I think you're right that it will never entirely go away, for exactly the reason you mention. However, being a Mormon requires levels of commitment that most self-identified Jews could never relate to. Paradoxically, however, it's the commitment that keeps the church going because people are so heavily invested. You may have self-identified as a Mormon, but you weren't exactly a Mormon in any meaningful sense. And that's what I see happening: Mormonism being more of a quasi-ethnic identity but with little meaning as to belief and behavior.

Secular Mormonism?