Romney loses in Florida to McCain...

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_Sethbag
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Post by _Sethbag »

guy sajer wrote:I think that none of us really have a clue how this'll play out in the end.

I see a lot of certainty expressed here over something that appears to me still highly uncertain at this point.

I tried, and probably failed, to express some surprise in a previous post last night in this thread, over just how uncertain this race still is. At one time I would have predicted that Romney didn't have a snowball's chance in hell, and now he absolutely does. It's still a toss-up, and Super Tuesday is probably going to be the tie breaker.

I'm only mildly surprised that Giuliani is out of it after Florida - I always thought he was way, way over-rated. I've liked McCain for a very long time. I used to live in New Hampshire, and voted for McCain in the 2000 primary that he won against GWB. I'm still hoping that McCain will get the nod, but it's absolutely up in the air right now who will actually get it.

I'd actually very much like for Mike Huckabee to stay in the race as long as possible. It's my hunch that Huckabee supporters would probably vote for Romney before they'd vote for McCain. I'm not sure I would have said that a few months ago, but now I'm inclined to believe it. I have no idea what McCain did to piss in the EVs' Wheaties as he apparently has, but it seems the EVs would rather hold their collective nose and vote for a Mormon before John McCain. Go figure.
Mormonism ceased being a compelling topic for me when I finally came to terms with its transformation from a personality cult into a combination of a real estate company, a SuperPac, and Westboro Baptist Church. - Kishkumen
_beastie
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Post by _beastie »

Is McCain an episcopalian or a baptist?

Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who has long identified himself as an Episcopalian, said this weekend that he is a Baptist and has been for years.

Campaigning in this conservative, predominantly Baptist state, McCain called himself a Baptist when speaking to reporters Sunday and noted that he and his family have been members of the North Phoenix Baptist Church in his home state of Arizona for more than 15 years.

"It's well known because I'm an active member of the church," the Arizona senator said.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/09/1 ... 64646.html

While I did not agree with his politics, I used to respect McCain as someone who stood up for his own beliefs. I lost that respect for him as soon as he start (sometimes literally) kissing up to Bush, after Bush's campaign engaged in dirty tactics against him with their push poll insinuating he'd had an illegitimate black child.
We hate to seem like we don’t trust every nut with a story, but there’s evidence we can point to, and dance while shouting taunting phrases.

Penn & Teller

http://www.mormonmesoamerica.com
_why me
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Post by _why me »

McCain took New Hampshire and Florida. Both states are rather liberal in outlook and that would also include the Republican voters. I think that the surprise is that Romney did so well in Florida.

Also, the more conservative Republicans now see the writing on the wall. And support for Romney or Hucklebee will grow. McCain should have a tough time winning the south and the more traditional Republican voters in other areas of the country.

If the race is between McCain and Obama or Hillary the republican party will take a breather for fours years. And it would be a nightmare election for the traditional republican base. And they know it.
_Sethbag
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Post by _Sethbag »

I can't see a race with Romney against either Obama or Clinton being any easier - on the contrary, it would be even harder for the reasons I gave earlier about moderate voters willing to vote for either party. McCain's got more draw with these moderates than Romney has. I think with McCain the Republicans have a chance at winning the election, with Romney they really don't. I have a feeling we'll be seeing President Obama or a President Clinton again.

And to be honest, I probably wouldn't mind either of those. I used to be much more politically dogmatic than I am now. I recall feeling like the sky was falling when Bill Clinton first got elected, and when he got re-elected, because he was the Arch Enemy. But we got through that time, and in retrospect, he wasn't all that bad. I've heard Obama in interviews before and really quite liked him. And I don't hate Hillary anymore like I used to.
Mormonism ceased being a compelling topic for me when I finally came to terms with its transformation from a personality cult into a combination of a real estate company, a SuperPac, and Westboro Baptist Church. - Kishkumen
_Jason Bourne
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Post by _Jason Bourne »

richardMdBorn wrote:Yes. If McCain wins I probably won't vote in the presidental race in November.


Why? That seems dramatic. I would take McCain over Hillary or Obama. But as Dick Morris noted last night on Fox, the republican party is moving left. Maybe a third party candidate is in the offing even though it would put a Democrat int the White house.
_richardMdBorn
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Post by _richardMdBorn »

CaliforniaKid wrote:
richardMdBorn wrote:McCain-Feingold shows that he doesn't believe in the First Amendment.


Rather, it shows that he interprets it differently than you do. Believe it or not, Campaign finance reform is designed to protect political speech in this country by preventing it from becoming the domain exclusively of monied interests.
I feel like being John McEnroe here. You can't be serious.

The problems with McCain Feingold are lengthy. Of course, when you call something a reform, politicians are afraid to oppose it even if it's a bad law and is probably unconstitutional. The Supreme Court with its history of bad decisions, Dred Scott etc., cannot be depended on to overrule unconstitutional laws. Here's one example about MF
When it comes to the law of unintended consequences, the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance "reform" is rapidly becoming a legal phenomenon. The latest example comes courtesy of the Federal Election Commission, where officials are being asked to extend the law to the very people it is supposed to empower: individual citizens.

We'd like to say we're surprised, but this was always going to be the end result of a law that naïvely believed it could ban money from politics. Since 2003, when the Supreme Court upheld it, McCain-Feingold has failed spectacularly in its stated goal of reining in fat-cat donors. Yet its uncompromising language has helped to gag practically every other politically active entity--from advocacy groups to labor unions. Now the FEC is being asked to censor another segment of society, the millions of individuals who engage in political activity online.

The problem facing the FEC is that McCain-Feingold broadly restricts coordination with, and contributions to, political candidates. So what is the agency to do with all those people who use their Web sites to praise a candidate? Computers and Web access cost money, which could be construed as a financial contribution to a campaign. Ditto bloggers who link to politicians' Web sites, or any individual who forwards a candidate's press release to a list of buddies. All this is to say nothing of blogs that are affiliated with political campaigns and coordinate their activities.

To its credit, the FEC tried to avoid this headache in 2002 by exempting the Internet from campaign-finance rules. This proved far too sensible for the sponsors of the law, who sued the commission for allowing "loopholes" and got a federal judge to strike down the exemption. The FEC must now decide just how it intends to monitor and penalize all those attempting to corrupt the U.S. political system via modem.

An idea kicking around the FEC a few years ago would require government to calculate the percentage of individuals' electricity bills that went toward political advocacy (we aren't joking). Another alternative would be to classify all bloggers as journalists, seeing as how the press is about the only entity exempt from McCain-Feingold. As much we enjoy our profession, we think a nation of journalists is overkill.

One of the more exciting things about last year's elections was how the Internet galvanized voter interest and turnout--from the Howard Dean grassroots movement to the bloggers who kept Dan Rather on his toes. Some 75 million Americans are estimated to have used the Internet to get political information in 2004. Too bad the very law that was supposed to encourage this buzz may ultimately be its demise.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110006458

MF increases the power of the media, so of course they love it, and the power of incumbents since they already have the advantage. Restrictions hurt challengers more than incumbents since the incumbent has been running for reelection since the day they were elected.

More later
_Jason Bourne
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Post by _Jason Bourne »

Sethbag wrote:This is going to be really fascinating. I've gone on record here and at MAD as saying that Romney didn't stand a chance, due primarily to the EVs not being able to stomach voting for a Mormon. I don't think the EVs have played as much of a role in this primary election season so far as people had assumed. They really don't seem to like McCain. But I'm not sure at all now how it will turn out. It's entirely possible at this point that Romney will get the nod. I predict McCain will get it though, but I could be totally wrong.

I really wonder whether EVs will make a push now for Romney in order to stave off a McCain candidacy. It's very, very interesting. And I'm no longer sure at all that the EVs will really sway this primary season one way or the other. It may be that they turn out to be a paper dragon this time around.

As for me, I'm voting for McCain when the time comes here in Arizona. I wouldn't agree with some of the things he's said. But I've always liked and respected him, and I respect him more than I respect Romney.


According to Fox the EV vote in Florida was equally split between McCain, Romney and Huckabee with ROmney edging them out. If Huckabee were not in I think Mitt would get more of the EV vote. Look above. One of this boards EVs wants nothing to do with McCain.

Romeny ha done better then I really thought he would do. But I think McCain will get the nod.
_Jason Bourne
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Post by _Jason Bourne »

richardMdBorn wrote:McCain-Feingold shows that he doesn't believe in the First Amendment. He's weak on the border (pathetic may be the better word). He used class warfare terms in voting against the Bush tax cuts. Other than that, I like him. :)



Interesting Mitt gets beat for flip flopping. But what about McCain? He voted against the Bush tax cuts now wants to make them permenant. He pushed an immigration bill that was amanesty now he says it was not and says he is against amnesty. He has been pretty middle of the road and now he is a conservative????
_why me
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Post by _why me »

Jason Bourne wrote:
richardMdBorn wrote:McCain-Feingold shows that he doesn't believe in the First Amendment. He's weak on the border (pathetic may be the better word). He used class warfare terms in voting against the Bush tax cuts. Other than that, I like him. :)



Interesting Mitt gets beat for flip flopping. But what about McCain? He voted against the Bush tax cuts now wants to make them permenant. He pushed an immigration bill that was amanesty now he says it was not and says he is against amnesty. He has been pretty middle of the road and now he is a conservative????


Every politician does a flip flop and that is how it should be. Human beings are constantly in a state of change intellectually. I would be more concerned if a politician did not flip flop from time to time. Not to flip flop basically means not to learn.

McCain is getting a freebee from the media. Romney isn't.
_Jason Bourne
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Post by _Jason Bourne »

McCain supported the latest round of tax cuts. He is also decidedly against pork spending and has never earmarked a bill. He does, however, believe that tax cuts should aid the poor rather than the very rich. This is not "class warfare"; it's humanitarianism. In any case, the trickle-down approach to economics doesn't work, because the rich generally don't spend. If you give a tax cut to the poor, they buy stuff and that money gets infused into the economy rather than into Uncle Scrooge's money bin.


Trickle down does work. Savings stimulates the economy by providing money to put into business and infrastructure. The poor pay very little if any tax now. Income earners over $100k pay the bulk of the tax in the US already.
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