Church statistics don't add up...

[_Drifting]

In the April conference it was announced that there was a membership of 14,441,346 (0.2% of the worlds population). That's an increase of 309,879 from the previous year.

In terms of new members (converts and births) the report states that there have been 401,229.

Hmmm...

Net growth 309,879
New members 401,229

The difference of 91,350 must be down to people resigning or dying.
Assuming nobody resigned last year that would mean at the most only 91,350 Mormons died last year.

Really?

Roughly, the worlds population has had a death rate over recent years of about 8.5 deaths per 1000 people. Using that rate, at least 120,000 Mormons should have died last year. 30% more than the Church statistics are suggesting.

I smell a rat.

I would suggest that the difference of 91,350 represents the number of Mormons that are known to have died. If you were inactive and died you will not have been deducted from the membership number.

It is also blatantly clear from these numbers, that resignations are NOT removed from the membership tally.


http://www.LDS.org/ensign/2011/05/stati ... 0?lang=eng

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2 ... conference

[_subgenius]

Really?

yes, really...this is by far the most desperate thread you have ever conceived. To save further embarrassment you should ask the mods to remove it.

Roughly, the worlds population has had a death rate over recent years of about 8.5 deaths per 1000 people. Using that rate, at least 120,000 Mormons should have died last year. 30% more than the Church statistics are suggesting.

you are misusing the stats here...for one, you neglect that Mormons have statistically higher longevity rates...and your 8.5% "rough" death rate is inadequate for use in the context of your post.
+91k deaths is reasonable when one considers actual information that is not bias or has been applied with some degree of competency.
For example - Utah has ranked second for the lowest overall death rate, with only 5.6 deaths per 1,000.

James E. Enstrom (epidemiologist at UCLA)- "...Middle-aged Mormon men had only 34 percent of the normal cancer death rate and only 14 percent of the normal cardiovascular-disease death rate."
Also from the American Journal of Epidemiology "Active Latter-day Saints Seven Times Less Likely to Commit Suicide"

that rat smell is obviously coming from your upper lip

[_Drifting]

that rat smell is obviously coming from your upper lip

Anyhow.

Are you really saying that there were no resignations last year, or do you accept that members who resign are still counted as members?

[_Analytics]

In the April conference it was announced that there was a membership of 14,441,346 (0.2% of the worlds population). That's an increase of 309,879 from the previous year.

In terms of new members (converts and births) the report states that there have been 401,229.

Hmmm...

Net growth 309,879
New members 401,229

The difference of 91,350 must be down to people resigning or dying.
Assuming nobody resigned last year that would mean at the most only 91,350 Mormons died last year.

Really?

Roughly, the worlds population has had a death rate over recent years of about 8.5 deaths per 1000 people. Using that rate, at least 120,000 Mormons should have died last year. 30% more than the Church statistics are suggesting.

I smell a rat.

I would suggest that the difference of 91,350 represents the number of Mormons that are known to have died. If you were inactive and died you will not have been deducted from the membership number.

It is also blatantly clear from these numbers, that resignations are NOT removed from the membership tally.


http://www.LDS.org/ensign/2011/05/stati ... 0?lang=eng

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2 ... conference

The age distribution of Mormons is probabably lower than the world population as a whole, so it seems quite plausible to this actuary that less than 91,000 actually died last year. You do have a fair point about the statistics being misleading--the church's policy of keeping its hundreds of thousands of "address unknown" members on the rolls until they are 110 causes there to be a growing number of dead members who are still being counted as members.

Clearly, the purpose of the membership stat isn't to acurately indicate how many living followers the church actually has.

[_Fifth Columnist]

According to this website, the Utah death rate in 2000 was 7.9 deaths/1000 population. http://www.utahtravelcenter.com/utahfacts.htm

That seems pretty close to the number used in the OP and is probably close to what the number is for church members.

[_schreech]

you are misusing the stats here...

Also from the American Journal of Epidemiology "Active Latter-day Saints Seven Times Less Likely to Commit Suicide"

Lol - you mean this study:

"Young Mormon men living in Utah who closely adhere to the dictates of their faith are less likely to commit suicide than their peers who are less active in the church, study findings show.

For example, the suicide rate among less active LDS church members aged 25 to 29 was seven times higher than among their active church peers. Nationally, the suicide rate among 20- to 34-year old males was 2.5 to 3 times higher than among active LDS church members of the same age. Suicide risk was also 3 to 6 times higher among nonmembers in comparison to active members of the LDS church.

In addition, the risk of suicide among males aged 15 to 19 was three times higher among the less active church members than among their active peers, but the rate among the active youth was comparable to the national suicide rate."

Either you didn't actually read the article, you purposely tried to "misuse" the data or simple statistics is among your many, many deficiencies...

[_subgenius]

Either you didn't actually read the article, you purposely tried to "misuse" the data or simple statistics is among your many, many deficiencies...

i simply quoted the title of the study, and pointed out the glaring fallacies in the OP... and your references have not diminished either point, rather, just your ability to discern simple things.

[_Drifting]

Either you didn't actually read the article, you purposely tried to "misuse" the data or simple statistics is among your many, many deficiencies...

i simply quoted the title of the study, and pointed out the glaring fallacies in the OP... and your references have not diminished either point, rather, just your ability to discern simple things.

Nice try sub, but we both know those are hairs you're splitting.

If we take the Utah deat rate (7.9 deaths per 1,000 population) the numbers still look Mickey Mouse.

Do you think they have removed the number of deaths of all Mormon members - active and inactive?
Do you think they have removed the number of people who handed in their resignations?

[_subgenius]

Nice try sub, but we both know those are hairs you're splitting....

splitting hairs? goodness man, you have yet to present anything more than a bald head.

Assuming nobody resigned last year....
It is also blatantly clear from these numbers, that resignations are NOT removed from the membership tally.

your logic is almost as weak as your use of the statistics. It is, quite honestly, absurd...

...For example, i could cite the CIA world factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/us.html) for the US Population being 313,847,465 persons...and they also list that Mormons comprise 1.7% of that population...thus meaning there are 5,335,407 Mormons - just in the US. Now clearly the church lists the US membership level at 6,144,582 (http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and ... ed-states/).
Now we have a discrepancy of 809,175 persons...which is not based on the voodoo style interpolation of death stats that you awkwardly try to pass off as actual reasoning or statistics in your OP.
So, should you not be more concerned with the +800k rather than the +90k?....or you could just admit that your post actually has no meaning, influence, bearing, or impact to anything or anyone at all.

[_Drifting]

Nice try sub, but we both know those are hairs you're splitting....

splitting hairs? goodness man, you have yet to present anything more than a bald head.

Assuming nobody resigned last year....
It is also blatantly clear from these numbers, that resignations are NOT removed from the membership tally.

your logic is almost as weak as your use of the statistics. It is, quite honestly, absurd...

...For example, i could cite the CIA world factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... os/us.html) for the US Population being 313,847,465 persons...and they also list that Mormons comprise 1.7% of that population...thus meaning there are 5,335,407 Mormons - just in the US. Now clearly the church lists the US membership level at 6,144,582 (http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and ... ed-states/).
Now we have a discrepancy of 809,175 persons...which is not based on the voodoo style interpolation of death stats that you awkwardly try to pass off as actual reasoning or statistics in your OP.
So, should you not be more concerned with the +800k rather than the +90k?....or you could just admit that your post actually has no meaning, influence, bearing, or impact to anything or anyone at all.

I can understand you wanting to avoid facing the actual Church published statistics but come on, join in. You may even learn something old boy....

The difference between membership growth and new members is 91,000. That's using Church published numbers.

Do you believe that to be all Mormon deaths, including those inactives off the radar who died?

Do you believe that when a member resigns their membership they are deducted from the Church published membership numbers?