Church statistics don't add up...

[_subgenius]

I think you are, in answer to my question, saying 'yes'...oh wait...make that a 'no'...no, hang on...yes...wait...no...yes...no...

as is obvious by your OP, you "think" whatever you want to think, regardless of actual facts, regardless of common sense, and with little regard for reason.

[_Drifting]

I think you are, in answer to my question, saying 'yes'...oh wait...make that a 'no'...no, hang on...yes...wait...no...yes...no...

as is obvious by your OP, you "think" whatever you want to think, regardless of actual facts, regardless of common sense, and with little regard for reason.

Can you point to whether your response to the question was a 'yes' or a 'no'?

The question:

Do you believe that when a member resigns their membership they are deducted from the Church published membership numbers?

Your response:

my "belief" on the numbers is irrelevant. Only by what is known and is a reasonable conclusion matters.
You also disregard excommunications...or people who were "re-communicated" or "re-activated"(not converts)...it also disregards a host of other influences on either number. Such as duplicate records....
not to mention your assumption and application of 8.5% death rate as somehow applying to the whole of church membership....you would have to weigh the death rates for each known region and membership in order to get the deviation you are hoping for...your broad stroke is fundamentally flawed, pure and simple.
If you wanted the "difference" to be closer to 120k, then how close is "reasonable" to you?
If it had been 119k? 110k?, 100k?....what about if it had been 160k?
you have no justification for what is "close enough" except some testimony you surely must receive via the HG....right?....or do you have something else to hang your hat on?

Because I can't tell.

[_subgenius]

http://www.statehealthfacts.org/profile ... =17&rgn=46
Utah 6.6 per 1k yields a number more like 93,176
whereas your 8.5 yielded 120,000....hmmmm

http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=26
so ,the top three countries for church membership are USA, Mexico, and Brazil
with death rates at 8.4, 4.86, and 6.36 respectively....yet in Utah where obviously a majority of USA members reside, there death rate is at best 6.6, and maybe at worst 7.5...just that one point value itself can represent 15k...or 50% of your so-called discrepancy...or "rat smell".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church ... statistics
so
if we consider the USA at a realistic weighted average of 7.0 (see http://www.statehealthfacts.org/compare ... d=58&cat=2 for death rates in the states where the majority of LDS membership resides) and then Mexico with 4.86, followed by Brazil at 6.36...we can get a "better estimate" than is provided by your WAG of 8.5

USA 6.144 million members at 7/1k = 43,008
Brazil 1.38 million at 6.36/1k = 8,777
Mexico 1.23 million at 4.86/1k = 5,978

57,763 for 8,754,000 of the church's membership thus far....but when using your broad stroke of 8.5, this number, at this point, should have been 74,409.....a difference of 16,646...which is more than half of the "rat smell" discrepancy you try to conclude above...so here we see a very simple example of how your OP is dramatically incorrect.

As you mentioned, with unwarranted arrogance, above.....maybe you will learn something by all this.






yet even more evidence that your "voodoo" stats and conclusions are bunk
again...check your upper lip

[_subgenius]

..Because I can't tell.

which is understandable when one reads the OP and realizes that simple concepts, basic math, and fundamental reasoning may be more elusive to you than most.

[_Drifting]

Woah there subby.

I hadn't realised just how far and how fast the point had travelled above your head.
We are talking stratospheric and Mach 3 aren't we...

The difference between the new members and overall Church member growth is 91,000.
Which, if the numbers were accurate would have to equate to the number of members who have died and the number of members who have resigned their membership.

The fact is that it doesn't come close to seeming accurate no matter which organizations death rates that you decide you want to believe in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_so ... death_rate

So.... *deep breath now because the question's coming*

Do you think (I realise this is a difficult question in and of itself) these figures include all member deaths (including deaths of in actives) and all member resignations?

*pause for a minute whilst I give you the multiple choice answer options*

[ ] Yes
[ ] No

Okay....GO!

[_subgenius]

Woah there subby.

I hadn't realised just how far and how fast the point had travelled above your head.
We are talking stratospheric and Mach 3 aren't we...

the only point seems to be between your ears

The difference between the new members and overall Church member growth is 91,000.

the only thing you have gotten correct so far.

Which, if the numbers were accurate would have to equate to the number of members who have died and the number of members who have resigned their membership.

and any errors in "accounting"

The fact is that it doesn't come close to seeming accurate no matter which organizations death rates that you decide you want to believe in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_so ... death_rate

but the "fact" is that it does...as was previously demonstrated...the more one expresses the numbers with confidence the more accurate they become and bear more resemblance to 91k than 120k...however, if you have actual data on the rate of resignation and membership removal then you too could be more accurate....rather than bloated with supposition.

Do you think (I realise this is a difficult question in and of itself) these figures include all member deaths (including deaths of in actives) and all member resignations?

based on the facts that are at hand, "i think" these figures represent the net change in reported membership last year with the reported membership this year.

[_subgenius]

just saying

[_Drifting]

[ ] Yes
[ ] No

Or are you frightened of giving the answer...