The Economy At Mid-1983
Recovery started in December 1982 from the deepest postwar recession, the second of two since 1980. Both recessions were brought on by monetary restriction aimed at bringing inflation under control. Lower interest rates after mid-1982 permitted the recovery to begin. Real GNP grew at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter and at an 8.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 1983 ... A dramatic decline in inflation, a fall in interest rates from levels that were extraordinarily high to levels that are merely high, and the stock market boom have contributed to the improvement in economic conditions.
Even Ronald Reagan's economic advisor, Michael Mussa, wrote in 1995 that the Fed's decision to dramatically cut interest rates, "signal[ed] the beginning of what would become a four-and-a-half-year period of quite rapid monetary expansion. During this period, interest rates, both short and long term, would be driven significantly lower, and the U.S. economy would substantially recover from the devastation of both inflation and recession."
You see this myth about Reaganomics using tax cuts to save the economy was developed quite recently. Even Reagan's own economists wouldn't argue such nonsense. But nonsense is precisely what Right Wingers love to swallow, and nonsense is precisely the thing FOX News and the Right Wing media (talk radio) loves to shove down the throats of the ignorant. Hence, Drropy's allergic reaction to truthful facts and his nability to support his own idiocy with evidence.
Bruce Bartlett, is another former adviser to Reagan and he was also the Treasury Department economist under George H.W. Bush. He argued that "federal taxes are very considerably lower by every measure since Obama became president. And given the economic circumstances, it's hard to imagine that a tax increase would have been enacted last year."
Of course, what do these men know. They were only economists working for Republican Presidents. I'm sure we're all eager to accept the premise that some self-educated (fancy way of saying uneducated) guy from Kershaw S. Carolina knows more than they do.
The fact is Droopy provides no evidence to support his assertions which have been exposed as myth by a number of economists, including those who hail from the Right.
Here is another interesting article written by someone who decided to check the numbers for himself (you see Droopy merely accepts uncritically whatever it is the folks at Mises tell him to believe - he never does any fact-checking on his own).
http://paladin.hubpages.com/hub/Tax-Myth-Number-One
What I discovered was that, except for a brief six-year period in the late 1980s to early 1990s when the two rates mostly moved up and down together, the unemployment rate and highest tax rate usually moved in OPPOSITE directions. When the tax rate remained steady, the unemployment rates usually fluctuated, with two notable exceptions:
The first was from 1982 to 1986 (50%), where unemployment declined from 9.7% to 7.0%. The second was from 1993 to 2000 (39.6%), where unemployment declined from 6.9% to 4.0%. The first occured after the tax rate has been lowered (by less than 1%), the second after it had been raised (by more than 8%). It's impossible to draw a direct correlation from one without negating it with the example of the other.
In the data offered below, the first number is the year, the second is the top marginal income tax rate and the third is the annual unemployment rate.
First, from 1948 to 1952, the top tax rate grew from 82.12% to 92%, yet from 1949 to 1953 the unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 2.9%:
1948_____82.13_____3.8
1949_____82.13_____5.9
1950_____91.00_____5.3
1951_____91.00_____3.3
1952_____92.00_____3.0
1953_____92.00_____2.9
The next year, the upper tax rate dropped a percentage point, and the unemployment rate nearly doubled, to 5.5%. Then, as the tax rate remained steady for ten years, the unemployment rate went up and down, ranging from 4.1% to 6.7%:
1954_____91.00_____5.5
1955_____91.00_____4.4
1956_____91.00_____4.1
1957_____91.00_____4.3
1958_____91.00_____6.8
1959_____91.00_____5.5
1960_____91.00_____5.5
1961_____91.00_____6.7
1962_____91.00_____5.5
1963_____91.00_____5.7
Then, in 1964 the top tax rate dropped dramatically, from 91% to 77%. Yet, the unemployment rate dipped only one half of a percent, from 5.7% to 5.2%:
1964_____77.00_____5.2
For the next 15 years, with the exception of a brief three year bubble, the top tax rate remained at 70%, while the unemployment rate fluctuated up and down. Of the entire 15 years, the middle of that bubble, 1969, recorded the highest tax rate at 77%. It also recorded the lowest rate of unemployment at 3.5%:
1965_____70.00_____4.5
1966_____70.00_____3.8
1967_____70.00_____3.8
1968_____75.25_____3.6
1969_____77.00_____3.5
1970_____71.75_____4.9
1971_____70.00_____5.9
1972_____70.00_____5.6
1973_____70.00_____4.9
1974_____70.00_____5.6
1975_____70.00_____8.5
1976_____70.00_____7.7
1977_____70.00_____7.1
1978_____70.00_____6.1
1979_____70.00_____5.8
1980_____70.00_____7.1
Next, in 1982 the tax rates began to drop dramatically, from 69.13% to 50%, and the unemployment rate immediately peaked to 9.7%, then steadily dropped as the tax rate remained steady:
1981_____69.13_____7.6
1982_____50.00_____9.7
1983_____50.00_____9.6
1984_____50.00_____7.5
1985_____50.00_____7.2
1986_____50.00_____7.0
The only time period when unemployment rates and the upper tax rates were largely in synch was from 1987 until 1992, where both fell, then rose together:
1987_____38.50_____6.2
1988_____28.00_____5.5
1989_____28.00_____5.3
1990_____31.00_____5.6
1991_____31.00_____6.8
1992_____31.00_____7.5
In 1993 the upper tax rate again rose to 39.6%, and the unemployment rate immediately dropped to 6.9%. Then, as the tax rate remained steady until 2000, the unemployment rate declined steadily to a low of 4.0%:
1993_____39.60_____6.9
1994_____39.60_____6.1
1995_____39.60_____5.6
1996_____39.60_____5.4
1997_____39.60_____4.9
1998_____39.60_____4.5
1999_____39.60_____4.2
2000_____39.60_____4.0
The next year, the tax rate dropped a percentage point to 38.6%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.7%, continuing to rise to a peak of 6% in 2003:
2001_____38.60_____4.7
2002_____38.60_____5.8
Since then the top tax rate has remained at 35% and, after dipping at 4.6% in 2006 the unemployment rate has once again climbed, to 9.3% in 2009.
2003_____35.00_____6.0
2004_____35.00_____5.5
2005_____35.00_____5.1
2006_____35.00_____4.6
2007_____35.00_____4.6
2008_____35.00_____5.8
2009_____35.00_____9.3
In the end, I must state for the record that I'm not claiming a direct cause-and-affect historical correlation between the top tax rates and unemployment rates. I fully realize there were myriad other economic factors affecting the rate of employment. Still, the next time someone tries to tell you that lower income taxes on the rich mean lower unemployment, you can demonstrate to them that the historical data actually suggests the opposite!
