Clinton Holds an 11 point Lead Nationally

[_Kevin Graham]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r ... sj-n666986

[_EAllusion]

That's from her most favorable polling firm. Realistically, it's probably around 6-7 points.

Though with the campaign infrastructure in a dire state for Republicans, she might over-perform that by a few points depending on how much of an impact Republican voter suppression has this time around.

[_DoubtingThomas]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986

just 11 points? she should be leading by like 30+ points.
In other polls she is just leading by 4+ points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Guest]

Clinton holds a 20-point lead among female voters (55 percent to 35 percent)

Just think if Trump would stop going out of his way to insult women and just shut up for a few minutes. He might actually be ahead, as crazy as that seems.

[_The CCC]

We don't have 30 point spread elections in this country.

[_DoubtingThomas]

Just think if Trump would stop going out of his way to insult women and just shut up for a few minutes. He might actually be ahead, as crazy as that seems.

Yes! I don't know what the f*** is she going to do in 2020 to get re-elected. I predict 2018 will be a bad year for democrats, and even worst in 2020. The year 2020 (not 2016) is going to be very important for the future of the Supreme Court.

[_The CCC]

Not much she can do about 2020 herself. Demographics, and the census, will do it for her.

[_EAllusion]

Barring some serious good economic news, Democrats are probably going to lose 8ish seats in the Senate next year. 12 is realistically on the table. Suppose they get to 52 this year. That's currently an optimistic number that Democrats would be happy to have. Subtract 9 from that in 2018. A 57-43 Republican majority is formidable. The house is virtually untouchable.

If Trump were to win, that wouldn't happen. Of course, if Trump were to win then all the awful things that entails are guaranteed to happen.

You can't assume Clinton will be as weak in 2020 as she is now. Political memories are short and Clinton is being badly harmed by virtue of being in an election with Donald Trump and getting a lot of "a pox upon both their houses" false equivalence thrown her way. Unless economic news is bad, which is totally possible, Democrats will be in a better position come 2020 than they were in 2018. But, all things being equal, they still would be favored to take a loss.

There are gerrymandering cases snaking their way through the court system. It's possible the Supreme Court finally delivers a blow against modern partisan gerrymandering. That's what Democrats need.

[_EAllusion]

There's zero reason to think 2020 is going to be worse for Democrats than 2018. There will be two major factors that will help Republicans in 2018. The first is that the party not in the white-house tends to make gains in mid-term elections. This effect is especially strong in first term presidents. The second is that Democratic voters turnout less in mid-term elections. Combine the two and that's some major headwind against them. Neither of these factors will be in play in 2020.

[_Res Ipsa]

I look at polling averages rather than specific polls. 538 has Clinton with a 6.5% popular vote lead and an 86% chance of winning in it's "polls only" forecast.