Maxine Waters wrote:The Jeb Bush wing of the Republican party might be dying off. But there is a wave of rural middle class working voters of all races who are a part of the economic nationalist movement. This is what won the election in 2016.
No worries. Those guys are busy trying to kill themselves off with opioids, so, same difference.
Didn't Rush Limbaugh have an opioid addiction? I believe he did...
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
The exits show an effectively tied election. Exits historically have a slight Democrat lean, so this implies a slight Moore victory. However exits also have a couple point margin of error on the best of days, so the implication here is that anyone can win, but Moore should be looked at as a modest favorite. In other words, the exits have clarified nothing.
Gun to head, at this point I'm saying Moore won. I'm not laying any money down on that outcome unless I get some decent odds to make it worth my time.
EAllusion wrote:The exits show an effectively tied election. Exits historically have a slight Democrat lean, so this implies a slight Moore victory. However exits also have a couple point margin of error on the best of days, so the implication here is that anyone can win, but Moore should be looked at as a modest favorite. In other words, the exits have clarified nothing.
Gun to head, at this point I'm saying Moore won. I'm not laying any money down on that outcome unless I get some decent odds to make it worth my time.
The gender and minority gaps are extreme too. The biggest tell that I think points to Moore is that voters who decided last minute went to him by a margin of 56-37. GOP give him that last minute backing and it looks like the voters did in kind.
There's extensive reports of voter suppression and intimidation against minorities, which is par for the course for Alabama, but normally inconsequential in a major election. If it does get in the zone of an effective tie, that's going to be a major story.
NYT's estimator, which I enjoy following, has been flip-flopping on the odds repeatedly. It's currently 52% Moore win probability. A near tie is a real possibility.
Heh. So Moore's odds of winning had been gradually creeping up for the past 15 min or so, like that scene in Saving Private Ryan as a solider has a knife slowly plunged into his chest as he tries to fight it off.
Then Jones gets one surprisingly good precinct result and all of a sudden Jones is again a tiny, tiny favorite.
It seems given the wide divisions on precincts the huge swings are the norm, not the exception. Both candidates are actually doing pretty well compared to their benchmarks but Jones looks rock solid in Jefferson County. The swing from 2000 to now in the county is also something worthy of its own analysis.
Eta: 538 is reporting some pretty bad turnout numbers for Moore favored counties. Doesn't matter how good you do compared to the benchmark on margin if the bodies aren't showing up
"If you consider what are called the virtues in mankind, you will find their growth is assisted by education and cultivation." -Xenophon of Athens
The 95% confidence interval on Nate Cohn's model still has barely moved at all. It's still predicting that it is plausible for for anything from Moore +7 to Jones +9. That's insane given previous performance of this modeling technique. The model trying to catch up with real-time voting data is creating a hilarious emotional rollercoaster. At one point it was up to 90% chance of Jones win, but it is back down to around a 60% chance of Jones win. The confidence interval attached to that is just a french smoking man laughing and saying in a heavy accent that life is full of mysteries.
I would switch my bet to Jones at this point if terrorists kidnapped me and forced me to do election prognostication at gun point.
In the alternative media-verse, Breitbart has been reporting for hours as if Moore winning has already happened. God it will be great to see Jones win given that situation. (Obviously there are much more important reasons why Moore going down is a desirable outcome, but that's just a cherry on top.)
Uh, Jones is now looking like a legit favorite. Betting markets have flipped hard from Moore to Jones. You can buy Moore victory for around 9-1 odds right now. Moore only wins if the outstanding vote from Democrat-heavy areas is the Republican enclaves.