FOX News Blaming Democrats already for Economic Downturn

[_Chap]

I do think this represents the most substantial threat to democrats going into 2020 and they need to be messaging the bejeezus out of a coherent counter starting yesterday.

http://www.mormondiscussions.com/phpBB3 ... 7#p1133937

Um, in that same thread you also predicted this would hurt them in the 2018 midterms.

Ooops?

It's fairly clear that whatever the effects of Trump's tax cuts may have been, they have not succeeded in outweighing the strong sense on the part of many people that they just don't want this man as President anymore.

As the Democrats make use of their new power in the House, I suspect we are going to see a more and more irrational and angry Trump as he feels the walls closing in on himself, his family and his associates. That is unlikely to make the people who dislike him now decide that he is really the President they want after all.

[_subgenius]

just let us know when it is Obama's economy again, ok?

Let us know when it’s no longer ‘Trump’s stock market’. : D

Sure, its easy if you use this handy guide provided by KG:
market doing well = Obama's stock market.
market not doing well = Trump's stock market.

economy doing well = because Obama's policies.
economy doing not-well = because Republicans are old white racists.

unemployment down = because so many people have more than 1 job.
unemployment up = because not enough women and non-whites elected.

interest rates = doesn't matter because rich racist white bankers don't lend money to coloreds.

consumer confidence = again, too many white people are consumers.

Gross National Product = ewww, gross.

Trade Deficit low = ugh, we don't need to be in the collection business.
Trade Deficit high = ugh, we don't need to be in the payment business.

Currency value = only follow Big Mac index and all else will fall in to place.

[_canpakes]

Let me know when it’s no longer ‘Trump’s stock market’. ; )

[_honorentheos]

I do think this represents the most substantial threat to democrats going into 2020 and they need to be messaging the bejeezus out of a coherent counter starting yesterday.

http://www.mormondiscussions.com/phpBB3 ... 7#p1133937

Um, in that same thread you also predicted this would hurt them in the 2018 midterms.

Ooops?

I recall commenting that the economy and the high GDP numbers would be favorable for the Republicans since the 4% growth number from spring was the last meaningful report before the election since the next one wouldn't come out until the week before the election. Specifically in that thread I said,

Most importantly, when the economy is looking up and voters believe Trump deserves credit for it (and many do, what is both accurate and shortsighted, in my opinion) then those politicians running for House and Senate seats will be positioning themselves to take on some of that glow while those who are focused on the Russia investigation or how Trump businesses are getting rich off his Presidency, or bemoaning the deficit increase, or criticizing his immigration actions will simply not be getting through to voters who only care that it seems like they can finally stop holding their breath when it comes to their own precarious finances.

When asked in exit polls, those who voted Republican cited the economy as evidence Trump was doing a good job and Republicans should maintain control. But many voters cited opposition to Trump as a motivating factor who voted Democrat. I certainly didn't see Democrats making healthcare such a major issue in their final push which apparently helped but on the whole with 20% of voters coming to the polls for the first time voter sentiment about Trump one way or the other was certainly at the root of ones voting decision despite him not being on the ballot.

I don't think one can say the economy didn't work in Republican's favor in the same way doubters can't say Russian interference didn't lose the 2016 election for Clinton because some many other things were also in play. At the time I think it made sense, and still does, that a strong economy works in the favor of Republicans and against Democrats. I haven't read a single reasonable economist who thought Trump's economic activities would lead to sustainable growth so the surge we were seeing was artificial and destined to retract. The move Fox News made to start sowing seeds that any drag one feels on the economy is due to Democrat opposition is the obvious play for them.

[_Xenophon]

I'd second that it is just pretty intuitive that a strong economy certainly didn't help Democrats, even if they did do well despite it. How big that impact is is of course up for debate.

You spoke to exit polling Honor and I think it strengthens your point further when you drill into States with close races. Georgia was an excellent example of this where the overwhelming majority (86%) of those that stated their family's financial situation was better than it was two years ago went to Kemp. There are similar breakdowns in the other financial exit poll questions. In a race with a gap of only ~55,000 votes it isn't difficult to imagine a different outcome if a major factor like "The Economy" (23% polled rated it as the most important issue) was in even just a slightly different place.

Don't get me wrong, there are obviously still a ton of other levers but it is definitely something worth considering. For me it is one of the biggest testaments to Trump's unpopularity that he is still so unfavorable despite the current economic situation, as ginned up as it may be.

[_Kevin Graham]

Sure, its easy if you use this handy guide provided by Kevin Graham:
market doing well = Obama's stock market.
market not doing well = Trump's stock market.

Let me draw you a picture since you're too stupid to follow the market over the past decade:



The market has been flat lining for basically the past year now, ever since the tax cuts passed and investors are already realizing what a scam it was.

economy doing well = because Obama's policies.
economy doing not-well = because Republicans are old white racists.

I've never said either.

Gross National Product = ewww, gross.

It got a boost in the 2nd quarter to just 4.1% and economists attribute much of it to farmers trying to export as much of their crops out of the country before Trump's tariffs hit them.

Trade Deficit low = ugh, we don't need to be in the collection business.
Trade Deficit high = ugh, we don't need to be in the payment business.

I've never once brought up the trade deficit as it is basically something only economic illiterates whine about. But it still cute that you think Trump has done anything to make a meaningful difference.



In other news, GM just announced it is laying off more than 14,000 American workers and shutting down 7 factories, despite receiving more than a half billion in tax cuts. Tax payer money well spent huh? Hows that trickle down working out in Mayberry?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... btFwy23XVQ

[_Kevin Graham]

I'd second that it is just pretty intuitive that a strong economy certainly didn't help Democrats, even if they did do well despite it. How big that impact is is of course up for debate.

You spoke to exit polling Honor and I think it strengthens your point further when you drill into States with close races. Georgia was an excellent example of this where the overwhelming majority (86%) of those that stated their family's financial situation was better than it was two years ago went to Kemp. There are similar breakdowns in the other financial exit poll questions. In a race with a gap of only ~55,000 votes it isn't difficult to imagine a different outcome if a major factor like "The Economy" (23% polled rated it as the most important issue) was in even just a slightly different place.

Don't get me wrong, there are obviously still a ton of other levers but it is definitely something worth considering. For me it is one of the biggest testaments to Trump's unpopularity that he is still so unfavorable despite the current economic situation, as ginned up as it may be.

I think people more and more are beginning to understand that the President really has little to do with an economy. If the economy can still be on cruise control with an orange moron golfing, tweeting and watching FOX News 8 hours of every day since elected, then it really begs the question, how important is the President in the first place?

[_Xenophon]

I think people more and more are beginning to understand that the President really has little to do with an economy. If the economy can still be on cruise control with an orange moron golfing, tweeting and watching FOX News 8 hours of every day since elected, then it really begs the question, how important is the President in the first place?

I agree that the role is less impactful than how we generally percieve it. I'm less inclined to believe that the general public is picking up on that but I can admit that is mostly based on anecdotal evidence. I think partisanship is still more than strong enough to override the logic. When people can assign credit or blame for their team or against the other team they're generally going to do that.

[_Doctor Steuss]

A bit off topic on my part, but...

One thing that stands out to me in this graph is how effective T.A.R.P., and other aspects of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 were at putting a halt to the freefall, and starting to inch towards recovery.

Bush/Paulsen deserve a lot of credit for being willing to take such drastic actions, and showing that they are highly effective, should the need arise again. Unfortunately, the "bailout" has become so politically toxic that a similar action will likely be unattainable to any future administration, and completely off the table as an option -- at least for the foreseeable future.