The Fog of War

[_MeDotOrg]

We are at a fascinating point in the denouement of the Trump Presidency. We are seeing events that could be disconnected, but perhaps not.

• Mueller and Manafort scrap their plea deal. We know both sides agree the deal is gone. What exactly transpired is not known, but observers of past deal think that it must have been a fairly egregious lie.

• Today, The Guardian reported: "Sources have said Manafort went to see Assange in 2013, 2015 and in spring 2016 – during the period when he was made a key figure in Trump’s push for the White House."

The Guardian's story has not been confirmed by another news source at this time. Wikileaks has called the story a lie. It would be safe to assume that the Ecuadorian Embassy has been under British Intelligence surveillance since Assange became a resident. I would imagine that if there is surveillance evidence of Manafort entering the embassy, the exact nature of that surveillance may be something of an embarrassment to both the British and the Ecuadorians.

So drawing an admittedly squiggly line between the dropping of the plea agreement and the Guardian story, is it possible that Manafort's lack of truthfulness concerning his contacts with Assange is part of the reason the plea agreement fell apart? And with the plea deal kaput, would a chatty member of British Intelligence feel free to leak the information? Admittedly, this is all speculation. It's just interesting seeing part of the picture and try to imagine what the final picture will look like.

If (again, if) the Guardian story is true, you have Manafort visiting Julian Assange just before he becomes Trump's campaign chairman (for free, while in terrible financial arrears) followed Manafort lobbying to change the GOP Russian platform plank, and offering to give private briefings on the campaign to Russian Oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

Another element in the fog of war is Trump's intelligence on the Mueller investigation. I get the feeling that Whittaker is feeding him a lot more information than he used to get. You have Alan Dershowitz's announcement that the investigation would be 'politically devastating', and Trump's ramped up attacks on Mueller. But you definitely get the feeling that the other shoe is going to drop soon.

[_EAllusion]

I think the most plausible reading of all of this is Manafort is angling for and has some hope in a presidential pardon. That seems politically toxic in an environment where Mueller's investigation isn't crippled, but that seems increasingly likely as well. Given that his alternative is life in prison, it might be the rational choice even if it is a long-shot.

[_Dantana]

Well, when it comes to all things Trump, the term idiot is way under-utilized. I think a version of 'Hanlon's razor' could be called for here too. Never attribute to malice cleverness or thoughtful, considered strategy, that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Manafort is or was 100% Trump's mole with the Mueller team. There's reason to believe Mueller deliberately allowed Manafort to continue lying about specific events in his testimony until Trump had finished his questionnaire regarding collusion. He and Manafort continued to hold a Joint Defense Agreement, which means Manafort was free to share information with Trump. If Mueller allowed Manafort to believe he was duping them, and Manafort shared that with Trump, whatever lies Manafort told may well be reflected in the answers Trump filed last week., including about these encounters with WikiLeaks. <- Manafort repeatedly met with Wikileak/Assange which was being ran by Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (a.k.a. 'GRU').

Note from the Steele dossier in a memo he wrote:

The [hacking] operation had been conducted with the full knowledge and support of Trump and senior members of his campaign team.

If Mueller filed this with the judiciary Whitaker won't be able to touch it despite being the AG, and Trump is screwed hard if he did, indeed, lie. Nice trap by the Bureau if that's the case.

- Doc