What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[_Chap]

The House Democrats will be investigating:

...

► Trump’s tax returns.

...

That should certainly be interesting.

[_Chap]

The Economist considers Trump at mid-term

The Trump Show, season two

Some highlights:

"What marks out Mr Trump’s first two years is his irrepressible instinct to act as a wrecker. His destructive tactics were supposed to topple a self-serving Washington elite, but the president’s bullying, lying and sleaze have filled the swamp faster than it has drained."

"Moreover, when Mr Trump acts, he does not recognise boundaries, legal or ethical."

"Confusion, chaos and norm-breaking are how Mr Trump operates. If the federal government really were a business, the turnover of senior jobs in the White House would have investors dumping the stock."


Here's the article:

A calm assessment of the Trump era requires those who admire America to unplug themselves from the news cycle for a minute. As the next phase of the president’s four-year term begins, three questions need answering. How bad is it really? How bad could it get? And how should Americans, and foreign governments, prepare for the Trump Show’s second season?

Mr Trump is so polarising that his critics brush off anything that might count as an achievement. Shortly before Christmas he signed a useful, bipartisan criminal-justice reform into law. Some of the regulatory changes to schools and companies have been helpful. In foreign affairs the attempt to change the terms of America’s economic relations with China is welcome, too. But any orthodox Republican president enjoying the backing of both houses of Congress might have achieved as much—or more.

What marks out Mr Trump’s first two years is his irrepressible instinct to act as a wrecker. His destructive tactics were supposed to topple a self-serving Washington elite, but the president’s bullying, lying and sleaze have filled the swamp faster than it has drained. Where he has been at his most Trumpish—on immigration, North Korea, nato—the knocking down has yet to lead to much renewal. Mr Trump came to office with a mandate to rewrite America’s immigration rules and make them merit-based, as in Canada. Yet because he and his staff are ham-fisted with Congress, that chance is now gone. Kim Jong Un still has his weapons programme and, having conceded nothing, now demands a reward from America. Europeans may pay more into their defence budgets at the president’s urging. But America has spent half a century and billions of dollars building its relations with Europe. In just two years Mr Trump has taken a sledgehammer to them.

The next two years could be worse. For a start, Mr Trump’s luck may be about to turn. In the first half of his term he has been fortunate. He was not faced by any shock of the sort his two predecessors had to deal with: 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the financial crisis, Syria. Electoral triumph, a roaring economy and surging financial markets gave him an air of invulnerability.

Even without a shock, the weather has changed. Although the economy is still fairly strong, the sugar-high from the tax cut is fading and growth is slowing in China and Europe. Markets, which Mr Trump heralds as a proxy for economic success, are volatile (see article). Republicans were trounced in the House in the mid-terms. The new Democratic majority will investigate the president’s conduct, and at some point Robert Mueller, the special counsel, will complete his report on links between Russia and the Trump campaign.

Over the past two years, Mr Trump has shown that he reacts to any adversity by lashing out without regard to the consequences. Neither the magnitude nor target of his response need bear on the provocation. In the past few weeks he has announced troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan. Seemingly, this was partly because he was being criticised by pundits for failing to build a southern border-wall. The Afghanistan withdrawal was later walked back and the Syrian one blurred, with the result that nobody can say what America’s policy is (though the harm will remain). Now that his cabinet has lost its steadying generals, expect even more such destructive ambiguity.

Moreover, when Mr Trump acts, he does not recognise boundaries, legal or ethical. He has already been implicated in two felonies and several of his former advisers are in or heading for prison. As his troubles mount, he will become less bound by institutional machinery. If Mr Mueller indicts a member of Mr Trump’s family, the president may instruct his attorney-general to end the whole thing and then make egregious use of his pardon powers. House Democrats might unearth documents suggesting that the Trump Organisation was used to launder Russian money. What then?

Confusion, chaos and norm-breaking are how Mr Trump operates. If the federal government really were a business, the turnover of senior jobs in the White House would have investors dumping the stock. Mr Trump’s interventions often accomplish the opposite of what he intends. His criticism of the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, for being too hawkish will, if anything, only make an independent-minded Fed more hawkish still. His own negotiators fear that he might undermine them if the mood takes him. Most of the senior staff who have left the administration have said that he is selfabsorbed, distracted and ill-informed. He demands absolute loyalty and, when he gets it, offers none in return.

How should Congress and the world prepare for what is coming? Foreign allies should engage and hedge; work with Mr Trump when they can, but have a plan B in case he lets them down. Democrats in control of the House have a fine line to tread. Some are calling for Mr Trump to be impeached but, as of now, the Republican-controlled Senate will not convict him. As things stand, it would be better if the verdict comes at the ballot box. Instead, they must hold him to account, but not play into his desire that they serve as props in his permanent campaign.

Many Republicans in the Senate find themselves in a now familiar dilemma. Speak out and risk losing their seats in a primary; stay silent and risk losing their party and their consciences. More should follow Mitt Romney, who marked his arrival in the Senate this week by criticising Mr Trump’s conduct. His return to politics is welcome, as is the vibrant opposition to Mr Trump by activists and civil society evident in the mid-terms. Assailed by his presidency, American democracy is fighting back.

After two chaotic years, it is clear that the Trump Show is something to be endured. Perhaps the luck will hold and America and the world will muddle through. But luck is a slender hope on which to build prosperity and peace.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Just a reminder to the Republicans that, when you're waiting for your tax returns this year and you can't get them, it's because Trump is willing to make you a pawn. Don't forget vets who are going to school on the GI Bill won't get their notes paid, the TSA isn't getting paid, federal parks are shuttered, and, probably the most worrying, air traffic controllers will be going without

Immigration courts have also closed, forcing judges to indefinitely postpone hearings scheduled months in advance. There is already a backlog of over 800,000 cases. E-very is down.

If this goes past September the VA will be unfunded, and you'll have millions of vets turned away, which, you know, is probably a terrifying prospect considering most of them are big on the 2nd Amendment and expecting the government to live up to its promises.

There's more, but what's the point of pointing anything out to Trumpers?

- Doc

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Hrm...



- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

Just a reminder to the Republicans that, when you're waiting for your tax returns this year and you can't get them, it's because Trump is willing to make you a pawn. Don't forget vets who are going to school on the GI Bill won't get their notes paid, the TSA isn't getting paid, federal parks are shuttered, and, probably the most worrying, air traffic controllers will be going without

Immigration courts have also closed, forcing judges to indefinitely postpone hearings scheduled months in advance. There is already a backlog of over 800,000 cases. E-very is down.

If this goes past September the VA will be unfunded, and you'll have millions of vets turned away, which, you know, is probably a terrifying prospect considering most of them are big on the 2nd Amendment and expecting the government to live up to its promises.

There's more, but what's the point of pointing anything out to Trumpers?

- Doc

Cam if you addressed this in subsequent posts I haven't seen it yet. I re-entered right at this post.

These wouldn't be affected would they?

VA disability income
VA stipends to widows

Am I wrong to assume that dependents educational benefits WOULD be affected?

ETA: I see that the above was your most recent commentary.

[_subgenius]

Just a reminder to the Republicans that, when you're waiting for your tax returns this year and you can't get them, it's because Trump is willing to make you a pawn. Don't forget vets who are going to school on the GI Bill won't get their notes paid, the TSA isn't getting paid, federal parks are shuttered, and, probably the most worrying, air traffic controllers will be going without

Immigration courts have also closed, forcing judges to indefinitely postpone hearings scheduled months in advance. There is already a backlog of over 800,000 cases. E-very is down.

If this goes past September the VA will be unfunded, and you'll have millions of vets turned away, which, you know, is probably a terrifying prospect considering most of them are big on the 2nd Amendment and expecting the government to live up to its promises.

There's more, but what's the point of pointing anything out to Trumpers?

- Doc

Pelosi and Schumer are also in the "making you a pawn" business ya dolt....but hey, that .01 percent of the budget means everything to a DNC that literally can't agree on any issue other than "orange guy mean".
Only a Democrat couldn't make a deal with a guy that literally lives to make deals.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Jersey Girl,

All I know from poking around is the VA is funded through September, 2019.

https://www.blogs.va.gov/VAntage/55126/ ... -shutdown/

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Secretary Robert Wilkie released the following statement:

“Thanks to the leadership of President Trump and Congress, VA is fully funded for fiscal year 2019, and in the event of a partial government shutdown, all VA operations will continue unimpeded.

“We thank the president and Congress for their commitment to our nation’s heroes in funding VA, and stand ready to provide all of the VA benefits and services our Veterans have earned.”

Payments will stop if Congress and President Trump continue to have their, uh, Mexican Standoff into the new fiscal year.

- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

Thank you. I hadn't come across (or really looked for To be honest) anything about the shutdown and VA operations.

[_grindael]

By: Leo Shane III   September 21, 2018

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump signed the Department of Veterans Affairs fiscal 2019 budget into law on Friday, giving the department a funding boost of more than 6 percent and pushing the agency’s total spending over $200 billion for the first time.

The president finalized the bill at a ceremony held in the North Las Vegas VA Medical Center, surrounded by federal officials and local veterans. He praised the massive spending measure as another promise kept by his administration.

“With this funding bill we have increased the VA’s budget to the largest ever,” he said. “We are delivering the resources to implement crucial VA reforms.”

The bill includes $1.1 billion for the start of a VA electronic health records overhaul and $400 million for opioid abuse prevention within the department, both efforts touted by Trump in the past.

Thursday's House vote marks only the second time in the last nine years that Congress has finished its VA budget work on time.

The final deal also includes a $1.75 billion increase in money tied to the VA Mission Act, passed at the start of the summer. The legislation will rewrite the department’s community care programs, expanding veterans ability to access private health care at taxpayer expense.

That money had stalled negotiations on the budget bill for months, and Democrats said they still are not satisfied with the short-term spending plug to cover what is expected to be an even bigger financial hole next year.

“The bill the president signed today leaves a funding gap in May of 2019, expected to grow to more than $8 billion in fiscal year 2020,” Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement after the signing.

The VA funding legislation also includes $10.3 billion in military construction funding for fiscal 2019 as well as the full-year budgets for the legislative branch and federal energy programs.

Trump’s signature came just a day after he blasted a similar sprawling budget package focused on the Department of Defense as a “ridiculous spending bill” because it omitted border wall funding he has demanded from Congress.

The House is expected to finalize that legislation next week. If the president chooses to veto it, most federal departments would face a partial government shutdown. VA would be exempted from those problems, however, since their fiscal 2019 funding is now in place.

[_subgenius]