Impeachment hearings

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_EAllusion
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _EAllusion »

Jersey Girl wrote:EAllusion if you have a moment please. Trump tried to smear Biden via the Ukraine's announcement of an investigation. On the bargaining (extortion) table was aide to the Ukraine and a meeting at the White House.

If I have got this right.

Do you think it's been proven now? If congress were actually able to impeach Trump (I understand the Republican Senators vote problem), but if congress were actually able to impeach him, would there be a way to actually remove Trump from office?
I think most of this was proven for a little while now. We are just getting more detail. The biggest deal for Sondland’s testimony in my opinion was providing some additional evidence showing how much of Trump’s senior people are implicated.

Trump is only removed if 20 Republican Senators agree to do it. Watching Republicans in this hearing doesn’t give me any sort of confidence that will happen.

Pence is also implicated here. There is zero chance he is going down.
_mikwut
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _mikwut »

Hi E,

It should make everyone wonder what other things careerists have seen they have begrudgingly not blown the whistle on.


If that's the way the rabbit hole goes sure, but that would be true then all members of congress, the judiciary, and the executive into every aspect of the military and intelligence. And that incompetence could go to the President's intent itself as well, not necessarily sinister or intending actual bribery just dumb and thinking its fighting corruption. When you give human nature for such a large swath a pass like you just did you have give the same to the gander don't you?

I'm not pushing back that hard, I just believe if your going all the way with impeachment of all things it should be crystal, it should be at least a little bipartisan to show a break through of dissonance and group think. Otherwise if it can be made ambiguous it is a bad precedent for the future. That's my 15% doubt anyway.

mikwut
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_Jersey Girl
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _Jersey Girl »

EAllusion wrote:
Jersey Girl wrote:EAllusion if you have a moment please. Trump tried to smear Biden via the Ukraine's announcement of an investigation. On the bargaining (extortion) table was aide to the Ukraine and a meeting at the White House.

If I have got this right.

Do you think it's been proven now? If congress were actually able to impeach Trump (I understand the Republican Senators vote problem), but if congress were actually able to impeach him, would there be a way to actually remove Trump from office?
I think most of this was proven for a little while now. We are just getting more detail. The biggest deal for Sondland’s testimony in my opinion was providing some additional evidence showing how much of Trump’s senior people are implicated.

Trump is only removed if 20 Republican Senators agree to do it. Watching Republicans in this hearing doesn’t give me any sort of confidence that will happen.

Pence is also implicated here. There is zero chance he is going down.


I haven't been able to watch any of it. Thanks I appreciate it!
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
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_mikwut
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _mikwut »

Jersey,

The precedent for criminal charges after his presidency or if he were (highly highly unlikely) removed has been set by Gerald Ford giving Richard Nixon a full and complete pardon of any criminal wrong doing. In that highly unlikely scenario Mike Pence would certainly do the same.

mikwut
All communication relies, to a noticeable extent on evoking knowledge that we cannot tell, all our knowledge of mental processes, like feelings or conscious intellectual activities, is based on a knowledge which we cannot tell.
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"Why are you afraid, have you still no faith?" Mark 4:40
_honorentheos
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _honorentheos »

I think the witnesses are bipartisan, which fact alone should count for something.

The reason I believe we have the witness pool we do here is because the harm was being done to Ukraine rather than the political foe behind the demands.

In that sense, incompetent or otherwise the consequences were considered serious enough by multiple witnesses to testify such was the case even if through supoenas rather than coming forward as whistleblowers themselves.
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_Gunnar
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _Gunnar »

The impression I have so far of the likely outcome is that just enough Republican Senators will have enough integrity to vote for conviction to give a slim majority of the senate in favor of conviction, but not the necessary 2/3 majority required for ousting Trump. I also think it very likely that most of the Senators who fail to vote for conviction will live to regret it. I hope I am wrong about that and that enough Senators will have the backbone to do the right thing and rid our government of this pathologically dishonest conman.
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_honorentheos
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _honorentheos »

Res Ipsa wrote:
EAllusion wrote:The media seems to be treating Sondland’s testimony as especially damning as best I can tell. He’s one of the co-conspirators and still quite obviously lying about certain things, but what he’s willing to admit to apparently has sufficient pizazz to not go after his credibility.


I watched the testimony live up until the round of five minute questions. I also watched the CNN panel during the break between before the round of five. I think the panel overhyped Sonderland's testimony. His story is that he never understood that investigating Burisma had anything to do with the Bidens until after the call transcript was made public in September. That means he contradicts the testimony of the two witnesses who heard the restaurant call. Under cross examination, he also agreed that the conclusion that the military aid was tied to an announcement of an investigation into the 2016 election and Burisma was "speculation" on his part. He also disputed the testimony that Bolton abruptly ended a meeting and stormed out, testifying that the meeting wrapped up in a friendly manner, and that they all gathered outside immediately afterward to take a group photo.

I thought the Republican attorney did a very good job of getting Sonderland to clarify his statements in ways that insulated the President. He made Sonderland be very explicit in terms of what he'd said, what he'd actually been told and by whom, and which parts were conclusions on his part.

As with Volker, I find it hard to swallow that the guy who has Ukraine as part of his diplomatic portfolio and is taking foreign policy direction from Rudy Giuliani didn't understand the politically significant connection between Burisma and the Bidens.

I think he strengthened the case that there was a quid pro quo: Zelensky would get the meeting with Trump that he wanted only if Zelensky would publicly announce an investigation into Burisma and the 2016 Ukraine election interference conspiracy theory. When the diplomats wanted Trump to meet with Zelensky to show his support, he told them to talk to Rudy. In typical Trump fashion, he delegate the dirty work to a fixer -- Rudy. It was Rudy who communicated the terms of the quid pro quo. And something I'm not sure the Republicans caught during the testimony -- Sonderland was careful to emphasize over and over that the quid pro quo was not an actual investigation, but a public announcement of an investigation into the 2016 election and Burisma. If you go back and watch clips of Trump from the 2016 election, you can see how one of he themes was that someone under criminal investigation should not even be eligible to run for president. Just the announcement of a criminal investigation involving Joe Biden would allow Trump to kneecap him with that same line of attack -- "you should be in jail," etc. It didn't matter at all whether an actual investigation occurred.

I don't think he added anything to the case that the military aid was also part of the quid pro quo. He did not testify that either Rudy or the President told him that the announcement was a precondition to getting the aid. Based on the totality of the events, he concluded that in order to get any action at all on Ukraine, he had to get Zelensky to make the announcement. One can argue that, based on all the facts, it was a very reasonable conclusion. But he's not a witness to anyone telling him that the aid was part of the deal.

I think that's a fair summary, though I felt it left Guilliani much more exposed than previous witnesses have such that it seems problematic to not push for his appearance before Congress as part of the proceedings. But the lawyer did a good job putting buffers around Trump that mitigated his exposure
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_mikwut
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _mikwut »

Hi honor,

I think the witnesses are bipartisan, which fact alone should count for something.

The reason I believe we have the witness pool we do here is because the harm was being done to Ukraine rather than the political foe behind the demands.

In that sense, incompetent or otherwise the consequences were considered serious enough by multiple witnesses to testify such was the case even if through supoenas rather than coming forward as whistleblowers themselves.


The bipartisan ship bolsters my argument because it would lessen the strain not greater it to come forward in a blatantly criminal project that is as obvious as it supposedly is. My second concern is getting into the President's head. Bribery is a mens rea crime.

mikwut
All communication relies, to a noticeable extent on evoking knowledge that we cannot tell, all our knowledge of mental processes, like feelings or conscious intellectual activities, is based on a knowledge which we cannot tell.
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"Why are you afraid, have you still no faith?" Mark 4:40
_MeDotOrg
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _MeDotOrg »

mikwut wrote:Jersey,

The precedent for criminal charges after his presidency or if he were (highly highly unlikely) removed has been set by Gerald Ford giving Richard Nixon a full and complete pardon of any criminal wrong doing. In that highly unlikely scenario Mike Pence would certainly do the same.

mikwut

A "full and complete" Presidential Pardon is for federal crimes only. The President may no long consider the Empire State his domicile, but a trial there could result in alternate accommodations for Pence's boss.
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_Res Ipsa
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Re: Impeachment hearings

Post by _Res Ipsa »

mikwut wrote:Hi Res,

I am about 80% there. Maybe 85%. My last obstacle is getting into minds and intentions particularly of the President. Doesn't a paradox rise the more obvious the dastardly deed and bribery (the impeachable offense) is, shouldn't we have more than the whistleblower raising it as a actual criminal concern beyond just "inappropriate" that we consistently get from the witnesses?

And if the bribery is so clear doesn't it become ridiculous to do it through the channels that what ever was communicated was communicated, just right there out in the open a straight up unambiguous and obvious impeachable offense?

mikwut


Hi Mikwut,

Yeah, I don't think there is or will be any way to view this kind of complex fact situation in a way that makes those involved look rational. They're all people, and people don't act rational. That's why try to stick to my own standards of impeachable conduct and whether the facts we have meet those standards.

I think our brains have a "normalization" bias that tends to make us think that whatever situation we find our selves in is "normal" or, at least, "not that bad." Do you remember how the lawyers in the Rodney King beating trial got not guilty verdicts? They showed that horrible looking video about a million times during the trial. The jury got so used to the video that I think they're brains started to normalize the conduct they were seeing -- maybe it wasn't that bad. So, I think that people who are exposed to whatever the bad conduct we're looking at is are more likely to suffer from that normalization bias. I saw Rick Santorum defend Trump on CNN last night by basically saying: Yes, what Trump did was wrong. But we all know Trump's an ignorant windbag who talks about doing all kinds of crazy crap -- but it all works out in the end, and that's all that counts. Finally, for whatever reason, someone says "hey, that's just way over the line" and may become a whistleblower. If they aren't too intimidated to blow the whistle.

So, for me, the reactions of people who witness the bad conduct aren't a reliable metric. They've been subjected to the crazy antics of Trump for quite a while now. Who knows how much normalization bias has kicked in.

And I really don't see the whole scheme as a brazen attempt at bribery. It was set up to keep Trump's hands completely clean. Trump delegated the dirty work to his current fixer. The quid pro quo was communicated through back channels. All Trump had to do was stick to the script for one phone call. All he had to do was praise Zelensky and say that he'd been told that Zelensky was committed to combating the terrible corruption in Ukraine. Zelensky just had to answer that it was one of his top priorities. Then Sonderland and Volker would arrange for the public announcement that Trump wanted, which they did, and then Trump gets his political weapon, Ukraine gets war weapons, and Zelensky gets his meeting.

That was the script. It was so simple, the White House wrote the "read out" it gave to the press before the phone call was even made. But Trump couldn't control his mouth, as is typical, and ended up documenting the bribe, or extortion, or quid pro quo, or whatever you want to call it. He called from the residence, where he likely didn't have the briefing materials that he is always given for a call with a world leader and just shot from the hip, with no one present to even queue him to stop.

So, no, I don't find anything about the scheme paradoxical or contradictory. It fits Trump's long time style of doing dirty work and his more recent inability to control his mouth.

I think the founders gave Congress the impeachment power as the check on the abuse of executive power. So that's really my standard: abuse of power. And, based on what I've seen so far, there's no question in my mind that putting the squeeze on a very vulnerable ally to gain political advantage in the upcoming election is an abuse of that power and warrants both impeachment and removal. Nixon's abuse of power was for exactly the same reason. And if lying about a blow job warrants impeachment, there is no argument that Trump's conduct does not.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
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