Impeachment hearings

[_moksha]

Moscow Mitch could make quick work of the Senate trial. Right after the reading of the House bill of impeachment, he could call for a vote on the impeachment. After quelling the objections from the Democrats, the best the Democrats could hope for is guilty on the charges presented but innocent by reason of Republican partisanship.

What will actually happen is a simple finding of not guilty.

[_EAllusion]

What will actually happen is a simple finding of not guilty.

I think you are underselling the possibility of what will happen is the Senate trial being turned into an opportunity to inject a lot of propaganda regarding Biden and the 2016 election into the electorate. If the trial was concerning the full-scope of Trump's impeachable offenses, that'd be harder to do, but it is what it is.

Republicans will still have to cast their votes for posterity.

[_Gunnar]

I am still holding out and hoping for the possibility that enough Republican Senators will come to the realization that voting in favor of Trump will hurt them and the Republican Party more than it will help them in the next election, to result in a 2/3 majority for impeachment and removal from office.

[_EAllusion]

I am still holding out and hoping for the possibility that enough Republican Senators will come to the realization that voting in favor of Trump will hurt them and the Republican Party more than it will help them in the next election, to result in a 2/3 majority for impeachment and removal from office.

I think hoping Trump dies of a heart attack is more realistic at this point Gunnar.

[_EAllusion]

Re: Mikwut's argument regarding partisanship, there are two general schools of thought on Republican solidarity here. One, which I lean towards, is that Republicans (minus maybe Romney) appear to back Trump here because they want Trump in power and don't particularly care about what he's doing as an impeachable offense. They're with the President because they think the President's actions are fine, or if not fine, not all that bad. Some of them, I personally suspect a large number of them, may simply believe that undermining democracy to advance Republican interests is no vice because they are full-on right-wing authoritarians.

This school of thought is consistent with Mikwut's position. The other school of thought, which Gunnar clings to, is that there are a not insignificant number of Republicans who secretly believe Trump's actions deserve impeachment, but are afraid to cross the party due to fear of retribution from party leaders or voters. In defense of Gunnar, this is buttressed by a genre of stories where reporters say Republican politicians have anonymously told them just that. I don't doubt those conversations have occurred. I personally think they're lying to those reporters rather than the public on this point, but Gunnar's mileage varies.

This school of thought is not consistent with thin branch Mikwut is hanging out on.

[_honorentheos]

Why don't you address that head on?

In my view, the issue with the Bidens and Ukraine is comparable to seeing something from a distance that looks like one thing only to be unmistakably something else entirely when one approaches it. To claim it IS the thing it looks like from a distance is admitting one is only looking at it from a distance.

So, if I have to post it again, here is a link to one of a few times it's been posted on this board in response to people who seem to see, "Hunter Biden was hired by Burisma! The president of Burisma was under investigation for corruption by the Ukraine prosecutor general's office! Joe Biden told the President of Ukraine if he didn't get rid of the PG they wouldn't get aid money! JOE BIDEN COVERED UP FOR HIS SON'S CLIENT! CORRUPTION!"

viewtopic.php?p=1197648#p1197648

Once one gets past that first glance OMG! to the details, it is not viewable as Joe Biden having engaged in improper activity to benefit his son's client. The facts simply don't leave the option on the table once known.

And, that also applies to Trump's behavior. It says something about his competence even if we were to agree he was sincere in viewing Joe Biden's actions as a representative of the Obama administration were actually corrupt nepotism protecting Hunter's client from investigation. He can't be both competent as a judge of information while also being informed. And to be uninformed and also putting conditions on the release of aid approved by Congress is not just incompetent.

If you prefer conspiracies, may I suggest... viewtopic.php?p=1179373#p1179373

It's worth looking at for background as well.

[Guest]

I am still holding out and hoping for the possibility that enough Republican Senators will come to the realization that voting in favor of Trump will hurt them and the Republican Party more than it will help them in the next election, to result in a 2/3 majority for impeachment and removal from office.

I think hoping Trump dies of a heart attack is more realistic at this point Gunnar.

This raises the questions, what if Trump does die of a heart attack before the election? How will that affect the probability that some other Republican candidate winds up being elected to President? And who would most likely be that candidate--Mike Pence, or someone else? And how would the proximity of that death to the time of the election affect the eventual outcome?

And I still think it probable that 2/3 majority or not, there will be an actual majority of Senators who vote for removal. Will that make things worse or better, if that majority falls short of the 2/3 majority, vs a majority for acquittal?

[_DoubtingThomas]

The worse thing the Democrats can do is remove Trump from office. Pence would be dangerous.

[_EAllusion]

It's worse than simply misleading about or misunderstanding the Biden story. Biden was acting in accord with an international consensus on acting against corruption in Ukraine when pressuring for removal of Shokin. Some of that corruption specifically included soliciting bribes in exchange for removing prosecutorial heat on Burisma. It's because he wouldn't adequately prosecute the company that Biden's son later got a vanity seat on that he was forced to step down. Trumpworld is seeking to invert the entire story wherein the actually corrupt actors in Ukraine are the good guys and the people trying to fight corruption in Ukraine are their persecutors. Ukraine is weak democracy that was trying to root out corruption in the face of enormous military, diplomatic, and psyops pressure from Russia, and in moves the Trump-led US to not only pressure it to behave in a corrupt fashion, but does its best to rescue the reputation and standing of corrupt actors that Ukraine had been trying to cast off.

This exactly coincides with advancing Russian goals in Ukraine, is an example of Trump's favorite "I know you are, but what am I" tactic of defending his unethical behavior, and makes a mockery of the notion that the interest here is in fighting, rather than promoting, corrupt behavior.

[_EAllusion]

This raises the questions, what if Trump does die of a heart attack before the election? How will that affect the probability that some other Republican candidate winds up being elected to President? And who would most likely be that candidate--Mike Pence, or someone else? And how would the proximity of that death to the time of the election affect the eventual outcome?

The party can nominate whomever it wants at its convention, but it likely would be Mike Pence.

Then people who think the Republican slide into authoritarianism is a specifically tied to Trump's behavior get a rude wake-up call.

Trump is fairly old, does not look to be in very good shape, and has famously had a poor diet for a long time. It's hard to know how stressful his current job is to him as he spends an awful lot of it vacationing and watching TV, but also seems constantly enraged, but I doubt it helps his health. Him dying in office would not be a huge shocker. Say it is a 1 in 50 chance he dies before the next election. I think that's much higher than Republicans impeach him in the next few months.