Impeachment hearings

[_honorentheos]

This is a little dated but the graphic regarding likely voters gets the point across -

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upsh ... polls.html

Democrats need to wise up to the fact Trump has a path to victory that has nothing to do with his national popularity numbers. It's going to be a contest of a handful of counties in swing states to win the electoral college. And that path looks better for not only Trump but Senate and House Republicans when Trump can run against a supposed socialist.

ETA: it seems like a good time to revive this discussion, too.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=51212

[_EAllusion]

The numbers still aren't working in a generic Democrats favor right now. Strong economy, incumbent President even if unpopular generally...until the Democrat nominee emerges from the field of hopefuls there aren't good reasons to assume any of them have the better shot right now while each have issues in winning voters from their own party. I think the odds of a brokered convention are too high to imagine the person who ends up with the nomination automatically carries the anti-Trump momentum regardless of who it is. Bernie is a candidate I think Republican strategists hope wins, really.

Arizona polls of likely voters show Trump in a tough race against Biden and Buttigieg while Sanders polls in the mid30% with the best chance of Trump taking the state, behind Warren. Arizona isn't going that far left in 2020.

Head-to-head polling has all sorts of confounds this far out. If it didn't, this post would be in self-contradiction as the polls show Trump almost certainly losing in 2020. Trump's chances are better than those polls indicate even before you get over the fact that he probably is going to cheat. Polling evidence is weakish.

One of these confounds is when a primary is on-going, people responding to pollsters tend to be less favorable to the candidates they are opposing within the primary. So on a state-by-state level, this distorts how well a candidate does against Trump based on their standing against their fellow Democrats.

[_EAllusion]

Trump but Senate and House Republicans when Trump can run against a supposed socialist.

Most people's concerns about "socialism" aren't motivated out of ideological consistency.

Like, this isn't a five-alarm fire among Arizona voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-are-made

The upshot of this for someone like Sanders is he's probably ideologically safe, even if labeling is an issue.

[_moksha]

Is Fox responsible for keeping many people unaware of Trump's crimes or is there that many people hepped up on villainy?

[_EAllusion]

Is Fox responsible for keeping many people unaware of Trump's crimes or is there that many people hepped up on villainy?

Column A, Column B.

[_honorentheos]

The numbers still aren't working in a generic Democrats favor right now. Strong economy, incumbent President even if unpopular generally...until the Democrat nominee emerges from the field of hopefuls there aren't good reasons to assume any of them have the better shot right now while each have issues in winning voters from their own party. I think the odds of a brokered convention are too high to imagine the person who ends up with the nomination automatically carries the anti-Trump momentum regardless of who it is. Bernie is a candidate I think Republican strategists hope wins, really.

Arizona polls of likely voters show Trump in a tough race against Biden and Buttigieg while Sanders polls in the mid30% with the best chance of Trump taking the state, behind Warren. Arizona isn't going that far left in 2020.

Head-to-head polling has all sorts of confounds this far out. If it didn't, this post would be in self-contradiction as the polls show Trump almost certainly losing in 2020. Trump's chances are better than those polls indicate even before you get over the fact that he probably is going to cheat. Polling evidence is weakish.

One of these confounds is when a primary is on-going, people responding to pollsters tend to be less favorable to the candidates they are opposing within the primary. So on a state-by-state level, this distorts how well a candidate does against Trump based on their standing against their fellow Democrats.

All certainly true. I don't recall with whom I had the same argument...whatever. But exiled talked of a left turn for the party being it's real hope for victory. The numbers say he should hold his horses.

I wanted to see his argument and it looks like it isn't based on much more than his personal feeling that the party should choose a candidate closer to his own values. Eh. That's not an informed argument.

[_honorentheos]

Trump but Senate and House Republicans when Trump can run against a supposed socialist.

Most people's concerns about "socialism" aren't motivated out of ideological consistency.

Like, this isn't a five-alarm fire among Arizona voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-are-made

The upshot of this for someone like Sanders is he's probably ideologically safe, even if labeling is an issue.

It would be hard to believe you aren't aware voters on all sides poll one way when asked about their views on capitalism and socialism that don't align with their responses about how they feel towards specific government actions. Trump or a PAC is already putting out ads here describing him as a champion against socialism. I don't think the polls are too far off in pointing out the candidates relative standing when it comes to Arizonians and their views of the Democrat candidates. But we'll see. I'm not willing to take a hard position on anything before the convention.

The broader point for folks like exiled is this election is detached from the popular vote and how a handful of swing voters in purple states are likely to decide it. Trump has a path to a 2nd term through those states and the electoral college. If the argument were that Bernie would fire up progressives to turn out generally, I would still think it's premature to make even that claim but ok, sure. Trump might lose the popular vote by more in that scenario while winning a couple more of the light red States and a wider margin win in the electoral college.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Trump’s campaign just made him into a supervillain, and I can’t tell if this is irony or not:

https://mobile.Twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom ... gr%5Etweet



- Doc

[_EAllusion]

It would be hard to believe you aren't aware voters on all sides poll one way when asked about their views on capitalism and socialism that don't align with their responses about how they feel towards specific government actions. Trump or a PAC is already putting out ads here describing him as a champion against socialism. I don't think the polls are too far off in pointing out the candidates relative standing when it comes to Arizonians and their views of the Democrat candidates. But we'll see. I'm not willing to take a hard position on anything before the convention.

The broader point for folks like exiled is this election is detached from the popular vote and how a handful of swing voters in purple states are likely to decide it. Trump has a path to a 2nd term through those states and the electoral college. If the argument were that Bernie would fire up progressives to turn out generally, I would still think it's premature to make even that claim but ok, sure. Trump might lose the popular vote by more in that scenario while winning a couple more of the light red States and a wider margin win in the electoral college.

My point is people’s opposition to socialism largely isn’t ideological in nature, so Bernie’s socialism isn’t as intractable of an issue as their top line opinions might tell you. If they can be persuaded to support Sanders, they’ll mostly bend in the same way so-called family values voters support Donald Trump. Sanders, like Warren, probably has an issue with being branded vaguely as too far left, but it isn’t at all obvious that this is a major roadblock to being elected.

[_honorentheos]

The Arizona poll followed the ideological line pretty closely. Biden and Sanders have the best name recognition but sat on opposite ends of the results. Moderate Democrats polled better than progressives. Bloomburg was in the middle. Buttigieg arguably has the least name recognition advantage among the five included in the poll yet polled as being able to beat Trump.

Put simply, states where the election could go either way aren't safely a toss up depending on which Democrat gets the nomination. Sure, there are voters who say they view other candidates less favorably and tell pollsters they might sit the election out, but who would vote D come November. But that's probably more of an issue with Sanders voters than it is Biden voters.