Clinton Holds an 11 point Lead Nationally

[_EAllusion]

Here's a map of the 2018 Senate. Notice how many blue seats are up in red-leaning states:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ap.svg.png

Democrats won big in 2006. They benefited from being the anti-incumbent party in a mid-term, a slowing economy, intense dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, and the Foley scandal. Then, they mostly held onto that edge in 2012 because it was a decent year for them. The result of this is that Democrats have a 25 seats up for election compared to the Republicans 8. There are 8 Democrat seats up for reelection in red states. There are a few more that are in swing or light blue states. Democrats could be blown out of the water in the Senate in two years and are likely to take a bad defeat even if it isn't a doomsday election for them.

In order to counteract this, Democrats need to do well in the cycle that produced the Republican landslide in 2010. It just so happens that year is 2016. Problem is, at least of right now, Republicans are going to lose seats, but don't look like they're going to get blown out of the water. This was the year for Democrats to run up a high total of Senate seats. They're probably going to get 6ish. Going in, 11ish was realistically possible. While Trump has been a nightmare candidate for Republicans, other underlying conditions haven't been so bad for them. Republicans that could be vulnerable in places like Florida, Arizona, Ohio, etc. are doing well. So, barring a collapse that is still possible (if unlikely), things are looking up for the party in the near future in the Senate.

[_honorentheos]

Here's a map of the 2018 Senate. Notice how many blue seats are up in red-leaning states:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ap.svg.png

Democrats won big in 2006. They benefited from being the anti-incumbent party in a mid-term, a slowing economy, intense dissatisfaction with the Iraq war, and the Foley scandal. Then, they mostly held onto that edge in 2012 because it was a decent year for them. The result of this is that Democrats have a 25 seats up for election compared to the Republicans 8. There are 8 Democrat seats up for reelection in red states. There are a few more that are in swing or light blue states. Democrats could be blown out of the water in the Senate in two years and are likely to take a bad defeat even if it isn't a doomsday election for them.

In order to counteract this, Democrats need to do well in the cycle that produced the Republican landslide in 2010. It just so happens that year is 2016. Problem is, at least of right now, Republicans are going to lose seats, but don't look like they're going to get blown out of the water. This was the year for Democrats to run up a high total of Senate seats. They're probably going to get 6ish. Going in, 11ish was realistically possible. While Trump has been a nightmare candidate for Republicans, other underlying conditions haven't been so bad for them. Republicans that could be vulnerable in places like Florida, Arizona, Ohio, etc. are doing well. So, barring a collapse that is still possible (if unlikely), things are looking up for the party in the near future in the Senate.

Speaking only for Arizona, Anne Kirkpatrick is doing a poor job making a case she should be elected over an aging John McCain. McCain seems to be getting points among the unlikely Republican supporters of Trump despite his backing away from supporting Trump last week. Possibly because he let the entire "not a hero" fiasco wash on by. He knows his base is old and anti-Clinton, and he's not disliked by the hispanic community to the degree Trump is, who are likely to be more influential in making the Presidential race closer than it would normally be here. I suspect Kirkpatrick being out spent and lacking the incumbant name recognition was too much to overcome even as the McCain name has become less meaningful for non-senior voters. She couldn't rely on a democratic upset due to anti-Trump sentiment, either. I doubt we'll see change in that seat in Arizona. Mormon Jeff Flake will be part of the 2018 Republican retrenchment, almost guaranteed.

[Guest]

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[_Gunnar]

I predict that no matter by how big a margin Trump loses, he will insist that the election was rigged. In fact, if he loses by a huge margin, he will only double down and claim that as proof that the election was, in fact, rigged -- especially if there was widespread voting by mail.

[_Some Schmo]

I predict that no matter by how big a margin Trump loses, he will insist that the election was rigged. In fact, if he loses by a huge margin, he will only double down and claim that as proof that the election was, in fact, rigged -- especially if there was widespread voting by mail.

Yes, and hopefully we treat that the way it deserves to be treated: just nod, smile, put him in a straight jacket and lead him to his padded room.

[_DarkHelmet]

I predict that no matter by how big a margin Trump loses, he will insist that the election was rigged. In fact, if he loses by a huge margin, he will only double down and claim that as proof that the election was, in fact, rigged -- especially if there was widespread voting by mail.

Just like in 2016, the Democrats need to focus on actually winning the election first. I'm really worried that there's not much enthusiasm for Biden.

[_Gunnar]

Just like in 2016, the Democrats need to focus on actually winning the election first. I'm really worried that there's not much enthusiasm for Biden.

I'm worried about that too!

[_Some Schmo]

Just like in 2016, the Democrats need to focus on actually winning the election first. I'm really worried that there's not much enthusiasm for Biden.

I'm worried about that too!

The lack of enthusiasm I feel for Biden is overwhelmed by the anti-Trump enthusiasm I feel, and from which Biden will benefit.

[_ajax18]

The lack of enthusiasm I feel for Biden is overwhelmed by the anti-Trump enthusiasm I feel, and from which Biden will benefit.

Be a good little latino and vote for Joe, your white liberal master especially if you prefer living on $1500/month SSI as opposed to $100k/year at full time job.

[_ajax18]

The lack of enthusiasm I feel for Biden is overwhelmed by the anti-Trump enthusiasm I feel, and from which Biden will benefit.

Be a good little latino and vote for Joe, your white liberal master especially if you prefer living on $1500/month SSI as opposed to $100k/year at full time job that you might enjoy under a Trump economy.