Biden's Economy?

[Binger]

You seem angry. This response is full of deflections, accusations, derails and nonsense.

Let's go back to your other BS. Do you still think that the information I copied was a prediction of the number you are gasmatically celebrating?

You seem disingenuous. I'm "gasmatically celebrating" by merely posting the monthly jobs numbers? I posted the jobs report which is released every first Friday of the month. You apparently read the less reliable ADP numbers from two days ago and thought you'd use that to "poo poo" on the fact that the economy produced jobs well above expectations. The ADP's numbers turned out to be very wrong, which isn't all that uncommon. And now after being served a plate of crow, you're trying to deflect from your predicament by pretending your point this whole entire time wasn't to negate the numbers I presented. No, now you're trying to hang your entire argument on whether or not the ADP is technically a "prediction." No, it isn't, but the ADP report is used for economic forecasts which is why so many economists had predicted a net jobs loss in the report today. Something Right wingers had been "gasmatically celebrating" since yesterday.

I made that word up, I have not yet decided what it means, but I think it has a lot of potential. What makes the ADP number wrong? What is the standard you are using to say it is wrong? Frankly, I get the impression you would think Billy the Kid wore his gun all wrong, if you did not like the way Billy buckled his belt and you and he never got along.

[Res Ipsa]

And an even smarter man would recognize that it takes a month or two before the government's numbers are finalized.

As if it was a prediction or estimation?

I wouldn't think of it as a prediction, as it doesn't predict future job growth. I wouldn't call it an estimation, as it is designed to be a complete count rather than based on statistical samples. But I think it's within the general meaning of "estimate" that we commonly use. It is based on data that is subject to updating for any of a number of reasons. I'd just call it a preliminary figure.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/bdm/calculation.htm

I didn't look at ADP's methodology.

[K Graham]

As if it was a prediction or estimation?

I wouldn't think of it as a prediction, as it doesn't predict future job growth. I wouldn't call it an estimation, as it is designed to be a complete count rather than based on statistical samples. But I think it's within the general meaning of "estimate" that we commonly use. It is based on data that is subject to updating for any of a number of reasons. I'd just call it a preliminary figure.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/bdm/calculation.htm

I didn't look at ADP's methodology.

From what I remember, ADP's database includes only about 20% of all private sector payroll. Which means the other 80% is accounted for using other means than simply counting.

[Res Ipsa]

I wouldn't think of it as a prediction, as it doesn't predict future job growth. I wouldn't call it an estimation, as it is designed to be a complete count rather than based on statistical samples. But I think it's within the general meaning of "estimate" that we commonly use. It is based on data that is subject to updating for any of a number of reasons. I'd just call it a preliminary figure.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/bdm/calculation.htm

I didn't look at ADP's methodology.

From what I remember, ADP's database includes only about 20% of all private sector payroll. Which means the other 80% is accounted for using other means than simply counting.

Personally, I'd describe that as an estimate because it's based on some kind of sampling. It should come with error bars.

[K Graham]

From what I remember, ADP's database includes only about 20% of all private sector payroll. Which means the other 80% is accounted for using other means than simply counting.

Personally, I'd describe that as an estimate because it's based on some kind of sampling. It should come with error bars.

Estimate is probably the best word to use.

Incidentally, here is the methodology by the ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/common/ ... Detail.pdf

[Res Ipsa]

Personally, I'd describe that as an estimate because it's based on some kind of sampling. It should come with error bars.

Estimate is probably the best word to use.

Incidentally, here is the methodology by the ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/common/ ... Detail.pdf

Thanks for the link. Given this description by ADP, I think estimate is a good word choice:

Given ADP’s payroll database, which includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment, it is possible for us to estimate the employment change in the US prior to the release of the by the BLS employment report.

[Emphasis added.]

[Hawkeye]

Nolte: Elizabeth Warren Launches Another Fact-Free Attack on Grocery Stores

Proving she’s equal parts dishonest and stupid, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) once again attempted to blame evil grocery store chains for inflation.

During an appearance this week on far-left MSNBC, Warren argued in favor of using anti-trust laws against grocery store chains.

Now what you got is a handful of giant [grocery store] chains, and then what happens…? Kroger, their profits just in the third quarter of 2021 were almost $900 million. That was more than three times what their profits were during the same time period in 2019. Now, if they are able to expand profits, not expand prices, but to expand profit, that’s because they have a lot of market dominance. If we move in with an anti-trust law, break up these giant corporations, then we get real competition.

It’s obvious what she’s up to here… The same thing she was up to the last time she floated this deranged conspiracy theory… She’s hoping to let His Fraudulency Joe Biden off the hook for the record inflation that is solely his fault. First, Biden’s lunatic spending cheapened the dollar and increased prices.

Second, Biden’s supply chain mismanagement ensured that more demand than supply increased prices.

And then, Biden’s gobsmacking mismanagement of the China Flu resulted in personnel shortages that further damaged the supply chain, which again created more demand than supply and increased prices even more.

The facts are this… Grocery stores operate on some of the smallest profit margins of any business out there. Theirs is a volume business, not a profit-margin business.

Additionally, once you understand that grocery stores are a volume business, you understand why their profits exploded during the third quarter of 2021. That’s when omicron hit. That’s when people started stockpiling groceries again. Also, Because of the virus, fewer people are going out to eat, which means they are eating at home, which means they are buying more groceries.

More people than ever are working out of their homes, which means they are eating at home rather than going out.

As far as competition in my small town, there are six different grocery stores competing for my business within about two square miles. So the idea that there’s some sort of price gouging going on is absurd.

What does this fake Indian believe? That ALL OF A SUDDEN, after decades and decades, the grocery stores all got together to gouge their customers during a pandemic? That ALL OF A SUDDEN, after decades and decades, they decided to risk prison by fixing their prices during the third quarter of 2021?

When’s the last time Lieawatha went grocery shopping? Honestly, a stroll through almost any grocery store will give you an idea of the supply and demand issues by way of all the empty shelves.

Here’s an excellent rebuttal to Warren’s lies…

That Is THE key question: “[D]o you believe plunges in inflation & profits in early 2020 were driven by companies becoming more altruistic, less concentrated?”

Riddle me this Pocahontas… If Democrats are so concerned with Big Grocery Chains, why did Democrats close small businesses and allow Big Grocery Chains to remain open during their anti-science lockdowns?

There are only two reasons grocery store prices are so high: JOE and BIDEN.

If Warren were genuinely concerned about monopolies and anti-trust issues, she would go after Big Tech and teachers’ unions.

If the high grocery prices working families are seeing is due to the greed of the CEOs of grocery store chains and not inflation due to Democrat economic policies, why did these CEOs wait until these Democrat policies were implemented to become greedy? Are you telling me they went from being altruistic in 2019 under President Trump only to become greedy only after Democrat policies on COVID, BLM looting and grocery store destruction in 2020, and stimulus money were enacted?

[canpakes]

… inflation due to Democrat economic policies, …

You should expand on that a bit more.

[K Graham]

Warren is dead on accurate and the only thing that's "stupid and dishonest" here is this Brietfart article.

[K Graham]

Proving she’s equal parts dishonest and stupid, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) once again attempted to blame evil grocery store chains for inflation.

Proving yet again that it is a fake news site, Brietbart lies about what Senator Warren actually said. She never said inflation is caused by corporate greed alone. She said the extent to which we are experiencing inflation is partially to do with corporate greed, and she is correct. CEO's are getting record high bonuses, paying dividends to shareholders as stock prices skyrocket every time they annouce another price increase. Even the investors understand that the price increases are not done just to cover inflation related expenses.

It’s obvious what she’s up to here…

Yes as a highly educated woman who knows what she's talking about, she is up to something the idiots at Brietbart aren't able to wrap their heads around.

The same thing she was up to the last time she floated this deranged conspiracy theory… She’s hoping to let His Fraudulency Joe Biden off the hook for the record inflation that is solely his fault. First, Biden’s lunatic spending cheapened the dollar and increased prices.

The value of the dollar is exactly where it was in 2018. Prices increase because of supply and demand, not because Joe next door suddenly has more money. A whopping $8.2 trillion was added to the federal debt under Trump, and inflation has been on the rise since Trump's last year in office.

Second, Biden’s supply chain mismanagement ensured that more demand than supply increased prices.

Supply chain issues have been a global issue and America has recovered far faster than most other countries as our port are hitting record levels of imports. Blaming Biden is just something the know-nothings will say.

And then, Biden’s gobsmacking mismanagement of the China Flu resulted in personnel shortages that further damaged the supply chain, which again created more demand than supply and increased prices even more.

HFS, they're actually blaming Biden, not Trump, for mismanaging the pandemic?

The facts are this… Grocery stores operate on some of the smallest profit margins of any business out there. Theirs is a volume business, not a profit-margin business.

What a remarkably stupid comment. Grocery stores are supplied by larger profit driven corporations. If the corporations are charging Kroger, 40% more for a gallon of water, then Kroger is going to increase their prices by at least 40%. But Kroger isn't to blame if the water supplier increases his price by 40% when it only needed to increase it 15% to cover the increased costs due to pandemic.

Additionally, once you understand that grocery stores are a volume business, you understand why their profits exploded during the third quarter of 2021. That’s when omicron hit.

So people started buying two year supply of food? More BS.

That’s when people started stockpiling groceries again.

Not me. And not anyone else I know. The Kroger and Publix I frequent have been out of only one item during the pandemic, and that was paper towels and toilet paper. But the shortage only lasted a few days. As far as everything else, bread, milk, eggs, meat, rice, beans, etc that has always been available.

As far as competition in my small town, there are six different grocery stores competing for my business within about two square miles. So the idea that there’s some sort of price gouging going on is absurd.

It isn't absurd at all when you have the data. From anecdotal experience, I've noticed that a gallon of distilled water was .89 cents pre-pandemic and was about that through the first year. Now that price went from a .10 cent increase to a whopping .40 cent increase which is nearly a 50% rise in the price of distilled water. Is there a shortage? No. I use it for my saltwater aquarium so I buy a few gallons per week, and have never had an issue with supply shortages at either grocery store. So why the dramatic hike in the price of water?

That ALL OF A SUDDEN, after decades and decades, the grocery stores all got together to gouge their customers during a pandemic? That ALL OF A SUDDEN, after decades and decades, they decided to risk prison by fixing their prices during the third quarter of 2021?

They risk nothing because there are no federal laws against it: "Currently, about 39 states have some kind of statute or regulation that defines price-gouging as illegal during a time of disaster or emergency, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. But the specifics of each state’s rules vary substantially, as do the consequences." This is why Warren and others are proposing legislation to better regulate this. The market won't regulate itself. https://energycommerce.house.gov/sites/ ... 22.2.2.pdf

When the media is fear mongering the nation about inflation the way FOX and Brietbart have been doing since Biden was inaugurated, it makes perfect sense for a corporation to tack on more to their increased prices because they know the people will only blame politicians. After all, they were told things would go up, but they were never told by how much. If a company raises the price of water 40% but the price of milk only 3%, who is questioning whether this is price gouging? Certainly not the consumer. We're just expected to trust that they're raising prices just enough to cover their added costs caused by the pandemic. But if this were true they wouldn't be handing out record high dividends to shareholders while CEO's get record bonuses. Senator Elizabeth Warren is looking out for the American consumer as she always has. This is her field of expertise, and she knows what she's talking about.

Honestly, a stroll through almost any grocery store will give you an idea of the supply and demand issues by way of all the empty shelves.

All the empty shelves? This is a right wing lie.

Fortune: Is inflation really this bad, or are greedy companies profiting off the pandemic?

Economist Rakeen Mabud tells Fortune what stands out to her as “deeply unfair” about the current situation is that CEOs and corporate executives are saying they’re able to jack up prices on consumers right now, and Americans don’t have a choice but to continue to pay the higher prices—all while these companies are paying bigger dividends to shareholders.

“There's no doubt that companies are profit-driven. I think there's a real question, in many ways, a moral question, about how much profits are appropriate,” Mabud continues. “What is just very clearly unfair is the fact that investors and shareholders are making money on the backs of consumers right now.”

And public companies are currently being rewarded for trumpeting those price hikes. During the latest earnings season, companies that have touted successful product price increases saw almost immediate gains in their share price, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

Company after company has announced price increases—and they're being egged on by their investors, Mabud argues. Companies are seeing their profit margins get ever fatter, and so they're hiking prices because it's working and investors are demanding that, she says.

“That's going to perpetuate this problem of profiteering long beyond inflation going away,” Mabud says.

prices.jpg

Businessinsider: It's not just inflation — corporate greed is also partially to blame for the rising prices you're paying

During the last quarter of 2021, for example, Starbucks reported an eye-popping 31% increase in profits, and revenue increased for the quarter by almost 20% to just over $8 billion. On the same call that Starbucks announced those terrific numbers, the corporation also announced that it would raise its prices over the next year — probably more than once.

The company blamed "supply-chain disruptions" and higher costs for labor for the price hikes, but Jake Johnson at media nonprofit Common Dreams said that they didn't mention one raise in particular: Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson's pay increased by almost 40% last year to more than $20 million.
It's not just Starbucks: Many American corporations see inflationary panic as an opportunity to boost their profits. The Wall Street Journal reported that Todd Kahn, the CEO of luxury fashion brand Coach, even admitted that his company's "rise in [prices] isn't really about inflation … it's about reducing discounting."

Journalist Matt Stoller estimated that 60% of the price increases that ordinary Americans are paying are going directly to corporate profits, not to compensate for global supply issues or compensate for higher-priced goods.

These inflationary stresses are a complicated global problem, and it's going to take a suite of policies — from using government muscle to help smooth out lingering supply-chain snags to combating shameless corporate price gouging and exploitative rent hikes — to push inflation back down to healthy levels.

But you shouldn't buy finger-pointing that tries to pin inflation solely on lockdowns, stimulus checks, or other policies that were passed to help keep Americans safe and supported through the worst of pandemic.

That's the worst kind of trickle-down fear-mongering — meant to keep workers angry with workers and everyone's eyes off the real profiteers.

The Hill: Corporate greed Trump's public need
Salon: Giant food producers are profiteering off inflation — and bragging about it too
Dr. Lindsay Owens"Economist Is Disgusted By These CEOs Who Brag About Their High Prices While Blaming Inflation, Exposes Them On Twitter"