Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[MeDotOrg]

Putin has authorized a draft of 134,500 conscripts. When Putin began the war, he said conscripts were not involved, but five weeks into a 3-day war he needs another 134,500 conscripts? Let's hope the Russian people can put 2 and 2 together. Just on the basis of the massive callup, if I were Russian I would be looking with great suspicion at the low casualty numbers that are being reported.

It also would appear to cast a lot of shade on Russian talk about withdrawals.

[Gadianton]

No chance of scaling back at this point. Probably will regroup not just to advance on the east, but to shell and take areas closer to Kiev so they can get their artillery in closer range to Kiev and attack it properly.

[Res Ipsa]

I found this interesting thread that puts Putin’s denazification rationale in context. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510 ... 71232.html Note the disturbing similarities between the logic he uses and the situation in the us.

[Kishkumen]

I found this interesting thread that puts Putin’s denazification rationale in context. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510 ... 71232.html Note the disturbing similarities between the logic he uses and the situation in the us.

Yeah, too bad about all of those radical Islamic people in Afghanistan and Iraq. Especially surprising in Iraq, eh?

[Gunnar]

An embarrassing, ironic dilemma for Putin: Putin 'running out of missiles' because all the parts are made in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin is said to be running out of missiles, tanks and aircraft, because the parts they rely on are made in Ukraine.

The engines of Russian military helicopters and key components for warships, cruise missiles and the majority of the nation’s fighter jets are all made in Ukrainian factories, the Telegraph reports.

The factories, which also produce parts for tanks and ground to air missiles, no longer supply Mr Putin’s army.

Earlier this week Moscow said it would reduce military activity near the Ukrainian capital and the northern city of Chernihiv.

Russia said the withdrawal would help increase trust at peace talks, however, the claims have been met with scepticism.

Ukraine and its allies have warned that the Kremlin is not de-escalating to promote trust but instead plans to regroup and restock as it shifts its focus to Ukraine’s Donbas region.

It is also feared that the fresh assault will target the already heavily attacked port city of Mariupol, which could be used by Mr Putin to bring fresh arms into the country.

However, sources who spoke to the Telegraph said the Russian miliary’s current stock levels were ‘pretty bad’, following Mr Putin’s failure to capture Ukraine as quickly as he had expected.

The army is also understood to be running low on arms following five weeks of sustained bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

As Russian troops have withdrawn from Kyiv they have left behind dozens of abandoned tanks.

The T-72 battle tank is one of the Russian army’s main armoured vehicles but, parts for it are understood to be manufactured in Izyum, an eastern Ukrainian city that Mr Putin’s forces have failed to capture.

Throughout the conflict, reports have circulated of Ukrainians capturing Russian tanks or taking out the armoured vehicles with drones.

Open-source intelligence estimates suggest that Russia has lost at least 2,000 tanks and armoured vehicles, although true figures are suspected to be higher.

It is also believed that Russia will be unable to restock its Kh-55 cruise missiles, which are launched from the air and have the ability to carry nuclear warheads, because they too rely on imported components.

The Kh-55 is used by Russia, China and Iran, and uses an engine manufactured in Kharkiv, senior defence sources told The Telegraph.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia mean Mr Putin is also unable to buy arms from France, which has supplied millions of pounds worth of equipment to Russia since the invasion of Crimea in 2014.

On the other hand:

While reports suggest Russia is running low on arms, Ukraine’s resources are being bolstered by its allies.

To date, the UK has supplied almost 4,000 next-generation anti-tank weapons (NLAWs) and Javelin anti-tank systems, alongside anti-aircraft missiles.

It has also been reported that the British designed Starstreak missile has been used by Ukrainian forces to shoot down a Russian helicopter.

Starstreak is an advanced high-velocity missile that destroys targets using three laser-guided darts and was supplied to Ukraine by Britain in March.

[Chap]

I need to explain what I am about to say as a follow-up to Gunnar with greater subtlety and major qualifications, but just to save time:

When the Soviet Union fell, the thought formed in my head that to a major extent the Russian Revolution of 1917, with its immense promises of social and economic progress, powered by the untrammelled advance of science, had ended up producing an almost opposite result. Russia and the other parts of the Tsarist empire that composed the USSR did not end up advancing further and faster than other countries, as had been expected by the revolutionaries: in effect, they missed the 20th century, and ended up far behind where they might have been otherwise had the Bolsheviks not seized power, overthrown the beginnings of a 'bourgeois' government and exercised a dictatorship on behalf of the proletariat.

And all Putin and his gang have done since then is to reduce Russia to a country where the only real source of wealth is the extraction and export of oil, gas, grain and minerals. They can't even make their own armaments.

What a waste of a wonderful country.

[Gadianton]

Thanks for the information on the missile shortage, Gunnar, that's not one I'd come across.

In general though, I'm encountering far more information lately that both Russia and China have serious supply chain vulnerabilities due to their reliance on imports, and mass imports in the case of China. This is not a good position for expansionists.

Russia is not self-sufficient like the Soviet Union was.

[honorentheos]

Russia is not self-sufficient like the Soviet Union was.

Some while back we discussed a short book called, The Jungle Grows Back, that examined both the mechanisms of investment made to order post-WWII Europe and prevent global war from reoccurring. And the threats to that order emerging as western nations were retreating into nationalism such as seen in the US and Great Britain.

This very fact that the world is too interconnected for any nation to be self-sufficient is an intentional war deterent. If one wishes to be part of the wonder of 21st Century achievement, one cannot engage in expansionist conflict and succeed.

ETA: a short video worth watching.
https://youtu.be/e_mOQzmOSck

[Jersey Girl]

Today's 30-ish minute interview with President Zelensky.

Full interview: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on “Face the Nation”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbSeNGi ... WL&index=2

[Jersey Girl]

Lighten up for a minute and 15 seconds. This is real. I had to watch it a couple or three times to be sure. I don't think I have any further comment to make.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Dancing to Beyonce's All the Single Ladies | In women's heels | WW3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKHGp1XPv48