Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Chap]

The message is getting through.

If a Kremlin spokesman is saying it, Putin has cleared it.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 03c7bd7dd9

Kremlin spokesman admits 'significant losses of troops'
The Kremlin has admitted suffering “significant losses” of troops since Russia invaded Ukraine, in a rare admission of how badly the war has gone.

In an interview with Sky News, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, was asked whether the war had amounted to a humiliation for Russia given the number of troops lost.

Peskov replied:

We have significant losses of troops. And it’s a huge tragedy for us.
He did not specific a casualty toll. In late March, Russia said it had lost 1,351 soldiers, with another 3,825 wounded. By contrast, a senior Nato official estimated in late March that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers had been killed in four weeks of fighting in Ukraine.


Peskov said Russia was “sorry” about its suspension from the UN’s human rights council over its invasion of Ukraine, adding:

We’ll continue to defend our interests using every possible legal means.
He also insisted Russian forces were “never shelling civilian objects” since the beginning of the war, claiming:

They were just aiming and using high-precision missiles to attack military infrastructure in Ukraine.
The Kremlin spokesman also claimed that the horrifying images that have emerged from Bucha over the last week were “fabricated and fake”. When asked if he realised “how grotesque” that sounded, Peskov replied:

It’s a bold fake and we’ve been speaking about that for a couple of days but no one would listen to us.
The aggressive debunking of “fakes” has become a key component of Russia’s propaganda war in Ukraine.

[Analytics]

Wondering what people in Russia are thinking? The New York Times has been interviewing some of them via phone:

It was only with his brother’s death, Mr. Kononov, 32, said in a phone interview, that he started paying attention to the war raging just over 50 miles from his home. And he realized, he said, that his brother had died in a war that “no one needs.” “If everyone learns everything, there will be protests,” Mr. Kononov, who works in a freight business, said, referring to the awareness of the Russian public at large. “And I think that would be for the best. Because this war has to stop. There ought to be no wars at all.”

“If America didn’t supply weapons to the Ukrainian Nazis, then there would be no deaths of our young guys,” Aleksandr Chernykh, who lost his 22-year-old son, Luka Chernykh, a corporal in military intelligence, said in a phone interview. “My personal opinion is we should just whack America with a nuclear bomb and that’s it, so that they stop getting involved in other countries’ business.”

“I know the Russian spirit and I know that Russians do not shoot at civilians,” Mr. Chernykh, an engineer, said in a phone interview from the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. “Only Nazis could do that.”

In North Ossetia, Marina Kulumbegova, 25, has been avoiding watching the news. Her father, Robert Kulumbegov, 47, left for eastern Ukraine on the first day of the war to deliver supplies to Russian troops, then stayed to fight, she said, “because there were boys there who were my brother’s age” — 23. “The only people who know what’s really happening there are the guys who are fighting there,” she said in a phone interview from the city of Vladikavkaz. “To talk about it, to say your opinion on it, has absolutely no use.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/worl ... Position=1

[Gunnar]

Obama on Ukraine and Putin. Just over 11 minutes.

Obama says Putin has changed since he was in office
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4bDuFJuriw

Excellent interview. What Obama had to say about this situation was almost infinitely more inciteful than anything Trump or any of his loyal cronies could even attempt to say. I wish he, or someone more like him, were still president. Be that as it may, there can be no reasonable doubt that Biden also has a much better take and understanding about the situation than someone like Trump. I am not yet convinced that Trump is not still (at least secretly) siding with Putin over this. I fear that if Trump (God forbid!) manages to become President again in '24, he will at least try to give Putin everything he wants to end this situation (assuming, of course, that it is still going on).

[Gadianton]

I'm going to need to be a little contrarian here, because when I hear Obama saying "Putin has changed", that sounds a whole lot to me like asking for a free pass for not taking him seriously during his two terms.

There are two main theories about Putin from what I gather, listening to as many commentators as YouTube will recommend to me. The first is that Putin is reacting rationally against NATO expansion, and the second is that NATO expansion is his pretext for aggression. I don't see a party bias here, as both theories are firmly within libertarian / right-wing thinking. Well, 90% of what I've consumed is (old-school) right-leaning simply because that's what YouTube thinks I want to listen to, I guess. Either that or nobody of the left wing has an opinion except this rogue guy Beau of the Fifth Column.

Anyway, I'd say the center of gravity of the right-leaning commentary (on global politics) is that (and I can't fully tell you why): Bush Senior good, Clinton bad, Bush Junior bad, Obama bad, Trump bad, Biden -- not great, but he's a serious player.

I don't think I've seen anyone suggest that Putin has fundamentally changed. Perhaps he's more desperate, but Putin A has always feared NATO and warned us he has no choice if NATO continues to expand and Putin B has always been lying about his fears of NATO and building his justification for the day he pulls the trigger to reclaim his territories. Anybody is more unstable on the day they execute the robbery than on the day they planned it.

One of the points that gets made is that Western statespersons have this hopeless bias toward the democratic way. We think that giving anybody a seat at the table and enriching their empire through global capitalism will ultimately convert them to our way, and it's just not true. There's been too much good will toward authoritarian leaders. Putin's dislike and distrust of the West runs as deep as an Idaho-raised Mormon's feelings about the Great and Abominable Church.

One of the more humorous observations about Putin friendship came from Christopher Hitchens. He pointed to this quote from George W.:

I knew right away, when I saw that crucifix around his neck, Putin was a man I could work with

[Jersey Girl]

From 1420 again. Just over 7 minutes. The overall apathy in this is what stood out for me most. Or is it fear of voicing an opinion? Not everyone was reluctant to speak up.

Russians watch videos from Bucha
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFNMaDbJDTk

[Gunnar]

I'm going to need to be a little contrarian here, because when I hear Obama saying "Putin has changed", that sounds a whole lot to me like asking for a free pass for not taking him seriously during his two terms.

There are two main theories about Putin from what I gather, listening to as many commentators as YouTube will recommend to me. The first is that Putin is reacting rationally against NATO expansion, and the second is that NATO expansion is his pretext for aggression. I don't see a party bias here, as both theories are firmly within libertarian / right-wing thinking. Well, 90% of what I've consumed is (old-school) right-leaning simply because that's what YouTube thinks I want to listen to, I guess. Either that or nobody of the left wing has an opinion except this rogue guy Beau of the Fifth Column.

Anyway, I'd say the center of gravity of the right-leaning commentary (on global politics) is that (and I can't fully tell you why): Bush Senior good, Clinton bad, Bush Junior bad, Obama bad, Trump bad, Biden -- not great, but he's a serious player.

I don't think I've seen anyone suggest that Putin has fundamentally changed. Perhaps he's more desperate, but Putin A has always feared NATO and warned us he has no choice if NATO continues to expand and Putin B has always been lying about his fears of NATO and building his justification for the day he pulls the trigger to reclaim his territories. Anybody is more unstable on the day they execute the robbery than on the day they planned it.

One of the points that gets made is that Western statespersons have this hopeless bias toward the democratic way. We think that giving anybody a seat at the table and enriching their empire through global capitalism will ultimately convert them to our way, and it's just not true. There's been too much good will toward authoritarian leaders. Putin's dislike and distrust of the West runs as deep as an Idaho-raised Mormon's feelings about the Great and Abominable Church.

One of the more humorous observations about Putin friendship came from Christopher Hitchens. He pointed to this quote from George W.:

I knew right away, when I saw that crucifix around his neck, Putin was a man I could work with

I certainly agree that it was naïve for either Bush or Obama to ever place any trust in Putin, but for George W. to trust him merely because he wore a crucifix around his neck was astoundingly naïve and, yes, humorous indeed. Some of the greatest scoundrels in history feigned religiosity to dupe their victims.

[Gunnar]

How Russia Will Die | Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan has an interesting take on the current situation. He argues persuasively that Russia, due to its geographical circumstances and already declining population, is a declining empire and country whose demise Putin has inadvertently only hastened by his ill-considered decision to invade Ukraine. Its healthcare and educational systems were already declining along with its economy, largely due to Putin's corruption and mismanagement and that of his kleptocratic cronies. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of Russians who are able to do so (largely the brightest and most capable) are leaving Russia, further accelerating the population decline already resulting from Russia's low birthrate. Russia's situation seems destined to become ever more desperate, which bodes ill not only for them, but for its perceived enemies and competitors whom its leaders might feel increasingly motivated to lash out against in desperation, and for the rest of the world as well.

On this episode, we discuss the developing situation with Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and author of The Absent Superpower, The Accidental Superpower, Disunited Nations, and the upcoming The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.

Here, we examine how the current Russia-Ukraine conflict became a “now or never” option for Putin, the downsides for Russia if it “wins” and what we expect its next steps to be, what NATO is doing to avoid turning this into a nuclear-escalated World War III, why Putin’s actions leading up to this point in time don’t bode well for Russia in any scenario, and what a country like China with expansionist goals of its own might take away from Russia’s hard-earned lessons.

It seems inescapably obvious that no matter how this Ukraine debacle turns out for Russia, both countries will be far worse off than if Putin had never initiated his "special military operation."

[Jersey Girl]

Missile blasted into the train station in Kramatorsk.

Written on the side: "For Children"




Sadistic bastards.

[ajax18]

I wish he [Obama], or someone more like him, were still president.

Why not just look at the actual history of Obama's foreign policy performance with Russia instead of swallowing hook line and sinker the revisionist history Obama is currently pedaling.

2011

"Dmitri, tell Vladimir that I'll more flexibility after my next election."

2012

"Gov. Romney, the cold war called and wants its foreign policy back."

Obama was president when Putin invaded Crimea? What did Obama do to stop him? Make no mistake. Obama is still in charge behind the scenes. You need not wish he were still president. We're seeing what Obama's 3rd term would look like right now. Record inflation, high gas prices, rampant crime, big welfare, the globalist oligarchs tightening their grip, and war.

[MeDotOrg]

How Russia Will Die | Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan has an interesting take on the current situation. He argues persuasively that Russia, due to its geographical circumstances and already declining population, is a declining empire and country whose demise Putin has inadvertently only hastened by his ill-considered decision to invade Ukraine. Its healthcare and educational systems were already declining along with its economy, largely due to Putin's corruption and mismanagement and that of his kleptocratic cronies. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of Russians who are able to do so (largely the brightest and most capable) are leaving Russia, further accelerating the population decline already resulting from Russia's low birthrate. Russia's situation seems destined to become ever more desperate, which bodes ill not only for them, but for its perceived enemies and competitors whom its leaders might feel increasingly motivated to lash out against in desperation, and for the rest of the world as well.

I agree with this assessment. Rather than be a projection of strength, the invasion has exposed all the cracks in the foundations of the Russian social and economic systems. No matter the ultimate disposition of the war, whether or not Russia holds on to the Donbas region, the war has greatly accelerated the unraveling of the Russian state.