Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Jersey Girl]

The EU is planning to expedite Ukraine's membership into the EU in a matter of weeks. I don't know what this means for Ukraine in terms of support. I will have to learn about that.

Ukraine war: EU chief promises speedy start for Ukraine's membership at meeting in Kyiv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTqcSpVL15Q

[Gunnar]

I wish he [Obama], or someone more like him, were still president.

Why not just look at the actual history of Obama's foreign policy performance with Russia instead of swallowing hook line and sinker the revisionist history Obama is currently pedaling.

2011

"Dmitri, tell Vladimir that I'll more flexibility after my next election."

2012

"Gov. Romney, the cold war called and wants its foreign policy back."

Obama was president when Putin invaded Crimea? What did Obama do to stop him? Make no mistake. Obama is still in charge behind the scenes. You need not wish he were still president. We're seeing what Obama's 3rd term would look like right now. Record inflation, high gas prices, rampant crime, big welfare, the globalist oligarchs tightening their grip, and war.

I did look back at the actual history of Obama's foreign policy performance with Russia, and I am quite confident that I understand it better than you do. Please watch and honestly consider these Frontline documentaries:

Putin's Revenge: Part One (full film) | FRONTLINE

FRONTLINE tells the story of how Russian President Vladimir Putin came to see the United States as an enemy — and why he decided to target an American election. With in-depth reporting from Moscow and Washington, D.C., the team behind “The Choice 2016” examines Putin’s rise, rule and motivations.

Putin's Revenge: Part Two (full film)

FRONTLINE tells the story of how Russian President Vladimir Putin came to see the United States as an enemy — and how U.S. intelligence came to believe he targeted the 2016 presidential election.

Putin's Road to War (full documentary) | FRONTLINE

Through in-depth conversations with multiple heads of U.S. intelligence agencies, diplomats, Russian politicians, historians and journalists, this special report chronicles events that shaped the Russian leader, the grievances that drive him, and how a growing conflict with the West exploded into war in Europe.

From acclaimed filmmaker Michael Kirk and his team, the documentary traces how Putin went from low-ranking KGB agent to longtime Russian president. It delves into his crackdown on dissent — and the media — inside Russia. It reveals how he has tested the West’s appetite for confrontation over and over again, including in Ukraine in 2014, as he’s tried to expand Russia’s global footprint. And it raises difficult questions about the path forward.

Watch the documentary for an urgent examination of what led to this historic moment and how it could still unfold.

I will concede that (like GW) Obama was at least a bit too naïve about Putin and his intentions, but he did immediately impose sanctions on Russia when they annexed Crimea, though they probably should have been stronger.

Trump, on the other hand, almost immediately advocated eliminating those sanctions, and would have, had he not been overruled by more than a 2/3 bipartisan majority in congress, and has expressed unabashed admiration for Putin and approval of almost every thing he has said or tried to do. Trump's infamously open public calling for Russia to help him in his election campaign by finding dirt on his opponent, Hilary Clinton, was nothing short of treasonous, as was his attempt to blackmail Zelensky to find or fabricate dirt on Hunter Biden. Whether you like it or not, he fully deserved to be impeached and convicted for that. The refusal of all but one of the Republican Senators to vote to convict Trump for that was both outrageously partisan and cowardly! It showed conclusively that Mitt Romney was the only Republican Senator with more than a mere trace of honesty and integrity!

[MeDotOrg]

I think the war could be entering a very dangerous phase right now. Given the stream of atrocities that have been documented, it would be a near political impossibility for Zelenskyy to cede territory to Putin.

The object of Putin's invasion was to check the power of NATO and reassert Russian hegemony of Easter Europe. Sweden and Finland are now talking of joining NATO. With respect to Russian influence, things are now decidedly worse.

• The poorer is army does, the more desperate they become.
• The more desperate they become, the the more atrocities they commit.
• The more atrocities they commit, the more they unite the world against them.
• The more the world unites against them, the more it feeds into Putin's paranoia.

But Zelenskyy knows that the longer Russia troops are in the country, the more difficult it will be to 'negotiate' them out. He wants to stop the suffering of his people as rapidly as possible. Given the abysmal performance of the Russian Air Force, it might be possible to drive them out without Air Supremacy, but the Ukrainians will need more armor.

As Putin sees the Ukrainian Army moving towards Russian borders armed with a lot of weapons from NATO, will he see his mistake, or will he see this as a vindication of his view that the West is really the aggressor, justifying even more extreme response?

[Moksha]

The EU is planning to expedite Ukraine's membership into the EU in a matter of weeks. I don't know what this means for Ukraine in terms of support. I will have to learn about that.

Ukraine war: EU chief promises speedy start for Ukraine's membership at meeting in Kyiv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTqcSpVL15Q

Woah! That sounds like a terrible idea and one that could both extend and escalate the Russian war in Ukraine. Plus, it would be one more item for which Fox would claim a vindication of Putin.

[Chap]

The EU is planning to expedite Ukraine's membership into the EU in a matter of weeks. I don't know what this means for Ukraine in terms of support. I will have to learn about that.

Ukraine war: EU chief promises speedy start for Ukraine's membership at meeting in Kyiv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTqcSpVL15Q

Woah! That sounds like a terrible idea and one that could both extend and escalate the Russian war in Ukraine. Plus, it would be one more item for which Fox would claim a vindication of Putin.

The EU is not NATO. It is a free association of nations who basically wish to extend their freedom to trade with one another, and for their citizens to live and work where they wish, on the basis of agreed common standards. Ukraine joining the EU poses no military threat to any of its neighbours.

Of course it does show that Ukraine prefers to associate with its European neighbours rather than with a chronically underdeveloped and corrupt exporter of raw natural resources like Russia. And, funnily enough, Ukrainians feel that more strongly than before after they have had a Russian army bombing, shelling, shooting and raping their civilian population while claiming that Ukrainians are Nazis. If that offends Putin, too bad.

[ajax18]

I think the war could be entering a very dangerous phase right now. Given the stream of atrocities that have been documented, it would be a near political impossibility for Zelenskyy to cede territory to Putin.

The object of Putin's invasion was to check the power of NATO and reassert Russian hegemony of Easter Europe. Sweden and Finland are now talking of joining NATO. With respect to Russian influence, things are now decidedly worse.

• The poorer is army does, the more desperate they become.
• The more desperate they become, the the more atrocities they commit.
• The more atrocities they commit, the more they unite the world against them.
• The more the world unites against them, the more it feeds into Putin's paranoia.

But Zelenskyy knows that the longer Russia troops are in the country, the more difficult it will be to 'negotiate' them out. He wants to stop the suffering of his people as rapidly as possible. Given the abysmal performance of the Russian Air Force, it might be possible to drive them out without Air Supremacy, but the Ukrainians will need more armor.

As Putin sees the Ukrainian Army moving towards Russian borders armed with a lot of weapons from NATO, will he see his mistake, or will he see this as a vindication of his view that the West is really the aggressor, justifying even more extreme response?

You're so right about this. I said Zelensky should have been more willing to make some concessions for peace a couple weeks ago. The window for an off ramp appears to be closing. I'd rather have peace than justice right now.

[Morley]

You're so right about this. I said Zelensky should have been more willing to make some concessions for peace a couple weeks ago. The window for an off ramp appears to be closing. I'd rather have peace than justice right now.

If it were your own country, which would you choose? Peace? Or justice?

[Gunnar]

What is so tragic about Putin is how he betrayed the mantle of Russian Democracy that Boris Yeltsin attempted to pass on to Putin when Yeltsin resigned in Putin's favor years ago.

Boris Yeltsin: the flawed hero who gave democracy to Russia

Heroes are rare, and the greatest I ever saw, Boris Yeltsin, has just passed away.

BY ANDERS ÅSLUND

Heroes are outsized personalities who are not always easy to appreciate. Yeltsin stormed into our conference room in the White House in Moscow. He was like a bull, beaming with self-confidence, energy and happiness, outright manic. One of his advisers told me that they came from the ministry of defence. He had given a speech to the Soviet general command and convinced them to join Russia.

That day, 11 December 1991, Yeltsin salvaged the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. The previous day, the then Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev had tried to persuade the generals to stand up for the Soviet Union, but he failed.

Even more impressively, Yeltsin brought democracy to Russia, where it had never existed before. He did so by winning big against the communist establishment in the first partially democratic parliamentary elections in 1989 and 1990 and in the first Russian presidential elections in June 1991. His rival Gorbachev never dared to stand in any democratic election, which sealed his fate. After having gained power, Yeltsin stood in a free and reasonably fair election in 1996, which he won in a hard competition. Democracy in Russia would not have arrived without Yeltsin.

Had Putin not failed to continue developing the democratic reforms started by Yeltsin, instead of trashing all of that in his eagerness to become an absolute despot and try to reestablish the USSR to all its former power and supposed glory in Putin's eyes, Russia would now almost certainly have developed into a viable and respected and prosperous democracy and partner against despotisms and a champion for human rights and intellectual freedom. And Putin himself would have become a hero for democracy and decency in the hearts of both his fellow Russians and most of the rest of the world. What a tragedy that that never happened! The world would now be a much safer and more pleasant place had Yeltsin passed on his legacy to someone worthy of it instead of that slimeball, Putin!

[Gadianton]

You're so right about this. I said Zelensky should have been more willing to make some concessions for peace a couple weeks ago. The window for an off ramp appears to be closing. I'd rather have peace than justice right now.

Well of course. So does Donald Trump. If NATO could have been destabilized and Ukraine not fed weapons, perhaps the war would have went quickly even with Russia's incompetence. Certainly, it could have been played in a way where there were no threats of nuclear weapons against America and sanctions that threaten oil prices for right-wingers. Trump has what, 15 years left at the most?

Letting Russia sweep in and take Ukraine and several other countries and locking those acquisitions down could take a few years, and the whole of Europe is a huge buffer for us. Trump could go to his grave living the good, easy life, and by the time Russia is ready to be a problem for America, its ultimate objective, we'll be dead and the problem can be passed on to the grandkids. A Russia controlling half of Europe in addition to its nuclear arsenal will only be a bigger problem then.

The best argument from a global strategy pov for America for inaction would be, if Gunner's guy Zeihan is right (I've probably seen about 10 of his videos) then Russia will implode economically anyway. However, then you have mob factions controlling nukes.

The more the world unites against them, the more it feeds into Putin's paranoia

The only answer for the Trump loyalists of the right-wing, should they yet prevail, is enjoy the now, which is pretty much the only strategy they've ever had anyway. As long as things can be good for Ajax personally tomorrow, world politics should revolve around achieving that.

Putin cares more about Russia than Trump or Ajax care about America. It's not likely he'll end the world just because he can't have Ukraine. But it's enough of a possibility that it makes you want to think it through a thousand times, and yet, there's no time to think.

I think it's a mistake to see a desperate Putin as the ultimate danger. The ultimate danger is a Putin ready to go all-in. When you're ready to go all-in, you've already planned to be desperate and unpredictable if things don't go your way, and we know before the fact that things can't go his way. As every strategist points out, Putin doesn't have the economy, the manpower, or technology, or expertise to take half of Europe. If Ukraine can't stop him, Poland will, maybe even without NATO. And so Putin in the near future, having already decided to go all in, is going to hit the wall and be desperate, whether it's after taking zero countries or taking five. You can buy a little time for dealing with desperate Putin and that's all. So, it would probably be best for NATO to announce a special operation 24 hours in advance with clear and specific parameters laid out, to take place cleanly within Ukraine's borders, wipe every last troop out and then stop and make it clear the border is secure. then pray.

[Chap]

As Putin sees the Ukrainian Army moving towards Russian borders armed with a lot of weapons from NATO, will he see his mistake, or will he see this as a vindication of his view that the West is really the aggressor, justifying even more extreme response?

Eh? What is happening near Russia's eastern borders with Ukraine is a large amount of Russian troops and supplies now moving over those borders from Russia into the areas of Ukraine already effectively effectively occupied by Russian forces, exploiting the benefits of short and secure lines of supply. The Ukrainian forces in that area are desperately preparing themselves for the expected effort to encircle and destroy them, and hence seize even more Ukrainian territory in the south and east.

And if they do that there is a risk they may frighten poor nervous little Putin. Awwww.

I'd rather have peace than justice right now.

Will no-one think of the optometrists?

This from the man whose sig line reads:

And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.

At what stage do you think the Confederacy should have 'preferred peace to [what it saw as] justice'?