This is just an example of some of the good stuff that's out there taking up the question about integration. Davis worked for multiple administrations and taught at West Point. Here, in a Fox interview (imagine that) from 2018, he shows there were spot-on concerns about how to deal with Russia. He points out that the drama over Trump, Russia, and election interference obscured more serious concerns over what Russia was up to. He points out that Russian people are heavily biased against America, anti-Americanism sells big, but at the same time, research has shown that Russian people respond unfavorably to their leaders when the lies of their leaders are exposed. He proposes setting up an international commission to not only monitor Russia, but to inform the Russian people about what's really going on when state media goes on a roll. He points out as Zeihen, Kotkin, and others, that Russia is in decline, and that's dangerous, especially when what sells to the people is anti-Americanism. He points out that Putin's military is sub-standard, and so it comes down to nukes controlled by a guy who is backed into a corner. And so how does the West avoid engagement, if that means deterioration that puts builds pressure on that guy who has the nukes?
Anyway, Colonel Davis on the integration question:
I don’t think we can give up on the possibility. I don’t think we should be naïve about it. I think we have to do a number of things in the meantime to make it clear to Russia that they are going to pay a price for many of the things they have done, in addition to making sure that we just, in effect, advertise to the Russian population and to all of Western Europe what they’re actually doing.
I mean, here we are, we’re talking about Russian interference in the United States, whether there was collusion between the Trump administration and Russia. That’s obscured a much larger discussion that should be taking place about whether or not what Russia is doing in the rest of the world right now and what Russia is doing in Europe right now. And part of it is just pulling the—pulling the Band-Aid off.
And for example, we recommend in here an international commission. Immediately, we got response from a number—I got response from a number of European leaders wanting to set up an international commission, an independent commission made up of all parties, the mainstream parties in Europe, to actually spend time and do what we haven’t done here, look at what Russia is doing in Europe right now that their publics do not know. Because when they do know it, their influence diminishes precipitously, like it did in France in this election, like it has in—but part of this is that there is not much discussion. And our leadership has been abdicated.
Your point is there’s three ways you lose power. One is just, you know, abdicate. Well, that’s what we’re doing. And part of it is just going out and telling—it sounds almost sophomoric—tell the truth, lay out what’s happening out there and get the international community to join in in terms of providing the hard data after some serious looks as to what is going on.
And the second thing is, if you’re sitting here—and when my grandchildren are writing their senior thesis to some great university about what happened to Russia, in 2018 what was the consensus in America about what Russia was going to look like in 2030? Well, you know, I wouldn’t want to have to be in a position—I often say to classes I teach, I would not want to be in a position, no matter what approach I took, of having to lead Russia. Look at—look at the state of Russia now. They’re in enormous decline. They’re—by any definition, these guys are on a toboggan run. The question is when the run ends. You know, they have a second-rate military power. They have significant advantages geographically, where they’re engaged. They have a nuclear arsenal that is—can blow up the whole world. But in terms of their efficacy, their capacity is de minimis compared to ours. They’re in a situation where they’re an oil-based economy. You have Gazprom going from a market value of something like $350 billion to $50 billion in the last 10 years.
What do you do if you are a democratic leader of Russia? What do you do? How do you provide jobs for your people? Where do you go? How do you build that country, unless you engage the West? I don’t know how that happens.
And so I haven’t given up hope. I’m not naïve about it. As you’ve noticed, I’ve been a very strident voice in my—the last administration about Putin and Russia, as I am now. But that doesn’t mean that this is a fait accompli that this is the way things are going to be.
Now, the last point I’ll make is—you all know it better than I do—that, you know, when nation—my dad had an expression, never back a man in a corner whose only way out is over top of you. Well, you know, take a look at Russia now. Where do they go? They’re incredibly dangerous as they continue to engage in this precipitous decline. Their life expectancy is changing. They’re expected to be a 20 percent smaller population by 2050. I can go on. And so the—it’s going to be a really tough, tough time to get them to the place where their citizens think they have any future.
And he’s—and the last point. This new, phony nationalism and populism that is being used by charlatans all across the world right now, the only thing keeping Putin where he is is that it’s the United States is the enemy. He’s going to demonstrate that they’re powerful again. But eventually he’s going to have to produce something, and I don’t see where it gets produced, absent a change in behavior.
