The High Spy MEGATHREAD

[High Spy]

Isn’t there a third? The pattern of alternating results. Does the existence of a pattern in the results have significance beyond that of chance?

There are great number of ways to define significance. Word's are significant, names even more so, and one name is most significant of all. Let' s model the Month and Day with two purple dice.



The die on the right has 12 sides to choose a random month.
The die on the left has 26 sides to chose a random letter to represent the day of the month.

1/12 x 1/26 = 1/312 because we can only represent 26 days.

If both dice are rolled, we have 1:312 chance of rolling a 3 and a 8 that represents March 8. (order dependent)

Really there are 365 days in a year so this is just a visual approximation of 3/8 as a random date. This is how it all began in 1980 when I met someone with CH in their name. Then 8, 9, 10 and 11 years later these chance encounters repeated. I don't know how many names have CH in them, but each encounter seemed more strange than the last.

What is the frequency of earthquakes shaking the Salt Lake Valley, that are sufficiently strong to loose Moroni's Instrument

[Res Ipsa]

Isn’t there a third? The pattern of alternating results. Does the existence of a pattern in the results have significance beyond that of chance?

There are great number of ways to define significance. Word's are significant, names even more so, and one name is most significant of all. Let' s model the Month and Day with two purple dice.



The die on the right has 12 sides to chose a random month.
The die on the left has 26 sides to chose a random letter to represent the day of the month.

1/12 x 1/26 = 1/312 because we can only represent 26 days.

If both dice are rolled, we have 1:312 chance of rolling a 3 and a 8 that represents March 8. (order dependent)

Really there are 365 days in a year so this is just a visual approximation of 3/8 as a random date. This is how it all began in 1980 when I met someone with CH in their name. Then 8, 9, 10 and 11 years later these chance encounters repeated. I don't know how many names have CH in them, but each encounter seemed more strange than the last.

What is the frequency of earthquakes shaking the Salt Lake Valley, that are sufficiently strong to loose Moroni's Instrument

I agree that there are a great number of ways to define significance. I started with coin flips as the simplest example I could think of. I'm still stuck on HTHTH. I'm not ready to take on anything more complicated just yet.

I've found three different ways to describe the same exact sequence of five coin flips. The frequency with which I should expect to get that result changes depending on the way I choose to describe the outcome. If I can't tell which of these descriptions is the correct one to choose, when I'm dealing with something as simple as coin flips, how will I ever know the correct way to assess the significance of real life events, which are susceptible to far more than three descriptions?

[High Spy]

What is the frequency of earthquakes shaking the Salt Lake Valley, that are sufficiently strong to loose Moroni's Instrument

I agree that there are a great number of ways to define significance. I started with coin flips as the simplest example I could think of. I'm still stuck on HTHTH. I'm not ready to take on anything more complicated just yet.

I've found three different ways to describe the same exact sequence of five coin flips. The frequency with which I should expect to get that result changes depending on the way I choose to describe the outcome. If I can't tell which of these descriptions is the correct one to choose, when I'm dealing with something as simple as coin flips, how will I ever know the correct way to assess the significance of real life events, which are susceptible to far more than three descriptions?

I watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NsZES_ ... =LL&t=270s a few days ago, and it reminded me of my fascination that OR is logically equivalent with NOT AND. Maybe that helps resolve your dilemma.

[Dr. Shades]

Common knowledge, but not common sense. CBNC

"Common knowledge, but not common sense" acronymizes to CKBNCS, not CBNC.

[High Spy]

Common knowledge, but not common sense. CBNC

"Common knowledge, but not common sense" acronymizes to CKBNCS, not CBNC.

Good catch, but CBNC means Christ but not Confuses. dbnp

It’s the alternate Celestial name for gbng.

It must be capitalized because it represents names, whereas dbnp and gbng do not.

Additional clues are available via the linked whale below.

[Res Ipsa]

I agree that there are a great number of ways to define significance. I started with coin flips as the simplest example I could think of. I'm still stuck on HTHTH. I'm not ready to take on anything more complicated just yet.

I've found three different ways to describe the same exact sequence of five coin flips. The frequency with which I should expect to get that result changes depending on the way I choose to describe the outcome. If I can't tell which of these descriptions is the correct one to choose, when I'm dealing with something as simple as coin flips, how will I ever know the correct way to assess the significance of real life events, which are susceptible to far more than three descriptions?

I watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NsZES_ ... =LL&t=270s a few days ago, and it reminded me of my fascination that OR is logically equivalent with NOT AND. Maybe that helps resolve your dilemma.

I'm sorry, I don't understand. I've puzzled over what you said and I can't figure out how it helps me decide which description to apply to HTHTH if I want to evaluate its signficance.

[High Spy]

I watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NsZES_ ... =LL&t=270s a few days ago, and it reminded me of my fascination that OR is logically equivalent with NOT AND. Maybe that helps resolve your dilemma.

I'm sorry, I don't understand. I've puzzled over what you said and I can't figure out how it helps me decide which description to apply to HTHTH if I want to evaluate its significance.

When I decided to convert H coins in to representative playing cards, the number eight came naturally because H is the eighth letter of the alphabet. I googled 8 Diamonds and thought this cool. And discovered something REALLY COOL further down the list, similar to my epiphany upon seeing something in the Fedx Logo

Anyway, Imagine holding a contest where each contestant flips your five coins, and you wish to decide a winner of the contest. Turns out the local casino donated large quantities of used playing cards, and your boss wants you do something with them.

So for each heads-up (H) coin you give out an 8 of diamonds card.
And for each tails-up (T) coin you give out a 2 of diamonds card, because T is the twentieth letter of the alphabet.

HTHTH becomes -->

Now you have an 8 over 2 full house.

The advantage of unordered is that the score can't be altered by switching the order of the deal. Now each contestant can flip all five coins simultaneously, and quickly receive a representation of their individual outcome. https://indianexpress.com/article/trend ... s-5455563/ is where you can see what's really cool about the 8 of diamonds.

Anyone know of other cards or symbols like that?

[Res Ipsa]

I'm sorry, I don't understand. I've puzzled over what you said and I can't figure out how it helps me decide which description to apply to HTHTH if I want to evaluate its significance.

When I decided to convert H coins in to representative playing card the number eight came naturally because H is the eighth letter of the alphabet. I googled 8 Diamonds and thought this cool. And discovered something REALLY COOL further down the list, similar to my epiphany upon seeing something in the Fedx Logo

Anyway, Imagine holding a contest where each contestant flips your five coins, and you wish to decide a winner of the contest. Turns out the local casino donated large quantities of used playing cards, and your boss wants you do something with them.

So for each heads-up (H) coin you give out an 8 of diamonds card.
And for each tails-up (T) coin you give out a 2 of diamonds card, because T is the twentieth letter of the alphabet.

HTHTH becomes -->

Now you have an 8 over 2 full house.

The advantage of unordered is that the score can't be altered by switching the order of the deal, if the coins are flipped in sequence. Now each contestant can flip all five coins simultaneously, and quickly receive a representation of their individual outcome.

https://indianexpress.com/article/trend ... s-5455563/ is where you can see what's really cool about the 8 of diamonds.

Anyone know of other cards or symbols like that?

OK, but if the order matters, the result is less frequently expected, isn't it. And wouldn't that increase the outcome's significance? Also, I don't understand what makes ignoring the order an "advantage." It looks to me like an arbitrary decision, but I suspect I'm missing something.

[High Spy]

OK, but if the order matters, the result is less frequently expected, isn't it. And wouldn't that increase the outcome's significance? Also, I don't understand what makes ignoring the order an "advantage." It looks to me like an arbitrary decision, but I suspect I'm missing something.

Think of a typical card game, you are free to rearrange your poker hand. It would be very difficult to keep the players honest if the order that they received the cards mattered. I can’t off the top of my head think of a game where the order of the deal is enforced. Can anyone think of an example

With the binary scoring method 5 tails would score the lowest. Generally what is rare is considered significant, so the binary scoring method runs counter to popular intuition.

In Scrabble you are allowed to rearrange your tiles to spell words, with significant letters assigned a high point value. There is still some luck of the draw, but the most skilled players often win. What is in fact the most significant Word from a heavenly perspective

[Res Ipsa]

OK, but if the order matters, the result is less frequently expected, isn't it. And wouldn't that increase the outcome's significance? Also, I don't understand what makes ignoring the order an "advantage." It looks to me like an arbitrary decision, but I suspect I'm missing something.

Think of a typical card game, you are free to rearrange your poker hand. It would be very difficult to keep the players honest if the order that they received the cards mattered. I can’t off the top of my head think of a game where the order of the deal is enforced. Can anyone think of an example

With the binary scoring method 5 tails would score the lowest. Generally what is rare is considered significant, so the binary scoring method runs counter to popular intuition.

In Scrabble you are allowed to rearrange your tiles to spell words, with significant letters assigned a high point value. There is still some luck of the draw, but the most skilled players often win. What is in fact the most significant Word from a heavenly perspective

There are Games where the correct order is required. Mastermind is the most well known example. But I’m not trying to design a game. If what is “rare” is considered significant, the degree of rareness of a given event appears to depend on how I choose to describe it. How do I know which description I should choose?

Using the binary method, as you describe it, why is TTTTT more rare than HHHHH?