State of the Pandemic

[drumdude]

1) I'm saddened that the debate has gotten so polarized that the distinction between prophylactic (Moderna vaccine) and treatment (Ivermectin, steroids, Paxlovid, etc) has been completely lost.

What makes ivermectin "legit" treatment?

Study Finds No Benefit to Taking Ivermectin for COVID-19 Symptoms

Ivermectin under scrutiny: a systematic review and meta-analysis of efficacy

Non-effectiveness of Ivermectin on Inpatients and Outpatients With COVID-19; Results of Two Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trials

Ivermectin has derailed the entire discussion on treatments for active COVID infection, except for finally 2 years in - one drug - Paxlovid.

The fact that scientists did studies on Ivermectin at all shows that they thought it had a plausible mechanism of action. Turns out ivermectin probably doesn't do anything, ok lets try other drugs. There are a million other drugs that could fight COVID after someone is infected, drugs like Paxlovid show that promise.

We put way too much emphasis on the vaccine and left everyone who got a breakthrough infection out to dry. Hospitals told COVID patients "do nothing but wait until your O2 saturation is 85% and then maybe we'll do something for you."

[Res Ipsa]

One of the folks I follow on Twitter is a vaccine researcher who I think colors inside the lines when it comes to the scientific literature. She posted a thread today on vaccines and the BA.4 and BA 5. variants. She emphasized a distinction that I see get lost in the general media sometimes: antibody response and T-cell response. At least with Omicron, antibodies protect against infection and T-cells against serious disease. Most of stories in the mainstream press that talk about declining immunity are referring to antibody response. So, the protection against infection from Omicron strains declines over a relatively short period of time, but the T-cell immunity continues to provide protection against serious disease.

The graphs for NYC comparing vaccinated vs. unvaccinated folks was interesting to me in terms of gauging the effect of vaccination on hospitalization. (by the way, for those graphs, "vaccinated" = original 2 dose Moderna/Pfizer or 1 dose J&J.) She also reminded readers that "milder" does not equal "mild." As used throughout the pandemic, a "mild" case is essentially one that doesn't require hospitalization.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 85474.html

[Vēritās]

Ivermectin has derailed the entire discussion on treatments for active COVID infection, except for finally 2 years in - one drug - Paxlovid.

The fact that scientists did studies on Ivermectin at all shows that they thought it had a plausible mechanism of action.

No, that doesn't follow. Many of these fake cures are studied for the purpose of debunking them because the fake news media makes people think the virus has been cured which in and of itself is dangerous, and it also creates a shortage of the drug for those who actually need it for something else.

Turns out ivermectin probably doesn't do anything, ok lets try other drugs. There are a million other drugs that could fight COVID after someone is infected, drugs like Paxlovid show that promise.

Paxlovid works because it was designed to treat COVID.

We put way too much emphasis on the vaccine and left everyone who got a breakthrough infection out to dry.

How the hell can you put "way too much emphasis" on a vaccine during a global pandemic that has killed more than 6 million people in just two years?

Hospitals told COVID patients "do nothing but wait until your O2 saturation is 85% and then maybe we'll do something for you."

So you're saying they don't prescribe Paxlovid or nothing huh? Just sit and wait? Where do you come up with this BS?

[Vēritās]

One of the folks I follow on Twitter is a vaccine researcher who I think colors inside the lines when it comes to the scientific literature. She posted a thread today on vaccines and the BA.4 and BA 5. variants. She emphasized a distinction that I see get lost in the general media sometimes: antibody response and T-cell response. At least with Omicron, antibodies protect against infection and T-cells against serious disease. Most of stories in the mainstream press that talk about declining immunity are referring to antibody response. So, the protection against infection from Omicron strains declines over a relatively short period of time, but the T-cell immunity continues to provide protection against serious disease.

The graphs for NYC comparing vaccinated vs. unvaccinated folks was interesting to me in terms of gauging the effect of vaccination on hospitalization. (by the way, for those graphs, "vaccinated" = original 2 dose Moderna/Pfizer or 1 dose J&J.) She also reminded readers that "milder" does not equal "mild." As used throughout the pandemic, a "mild" case is essentially one that doesn't require hospitalization.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 85474.html

Full link please?

[drumdude]

No, that doesn't follow. Many of these fake cures are studied for the purpose of debunking them because the fake news media makes people think the virus has been cured which in and of itself is dangerous, and it also creates a shortage of the drug for those who actually need it for something else.

You're living in a dream world if you think scientists are wasting valuable time and money debunking drugs that have no possible theoretical mechanism of action. 174 studies are not needed to debunk the flat earth theory. 174 is the current number of studies on Ivermectin as of this moment. I think, personally, that is an obscene amount to perform on a drug that has little to no evidence but neither you are I are a scientist.

Paxlovid works because it was designed to treat COVID.

Steroids were not designed to treat COVID and they work to treat COVID. Drugs are relabeled for use on other things literally every single day. Ivermectin, if it had worked, would be no different. Drug companies actually LOVE repurposing drugs because the safety evaluation has already been done.

How the hell can you put "way too much emphasis" on a vaccine during a global pandemic that has killed more than 6 million people in just two years?

Because now the variants are breaking through the vaccine protection and we need therapies to treat those who are infected before they get so sick that they are in the ICU with 85% O2 saturation.

So you're saying they don't prescribe Paxlovid or nothing huh? Just sit and wait? Where do you come up with this BS?

Absolutely. There is no universal guidance on even prescribing Paxlovid, except if the patient has clear comorbidities. Because so many people, including Fauci, are experiencing rebounds that are worse than the original pre-Paxlovid symptoms.

[canpakes]

.
Here’s a little bit of good news …

A serious inflammatory complication that strikes some children in the weeks following a Covid-19 infection has almost disappeared. A buildup of immunity and changes to the virus both likely play a part, pediatric infectious-disease doctors and researchers said.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome is afflicting far fewer children as a proportion of known Covid-19 cases than during earlier waves of the pandemic, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The condition, also known as MIS-C, is similar to Kawasaki disease, another rare pediatric inflammatory condition. Early in the pandemic, doctors believed they were seeing Kawasaki disease but soon recognized MIS-C as a distinct condition associated with an earlier Covid-19 infection.

MIS-C can cause inflammation two to six weeks after infection with Covid-19 in organ systems including the heart, lungs, kidneys and brain. Researchers haven’t determined why some children developed the condition but they have linked it to a hyperactive immune response. Treated with drugs such as intravenous immune globulin or corticosteroids, most children make a full recovery. Even so, the condition can be deadly. In the U.S., 70 children have died from MIS-C since the start of the pandemic, according to the CDC.

In past pandemic waves, an increase in cases was followed by a rise in MIS-C around two weeks later. But the extent of the rise has been diminishing. The highest rates of MIS-C in the U.S. occurred during the Alpha wave that peaked in early 2021. A gentler rise accompanied the Delta wave the following summer and a yet-smaller increase came during the first Omicron wave this past winter, despite the record-high case numbers caused by the highly mutated strain.

Now, cases are climbing again, but MIS-C isn’t.

Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have been rising since April, and are likely far higher than official data suggests due to the increase in at-home testing, public-health experts say. But average daily reported cases of MIS-C haven’t risen above one or two since March, according to CDC data through June 27. The data are incomplete and numbers could rise, the CDC said.

The same decoupling between Covid-19 infection rates and MIS-C is happening elsewhere. In England, hospital admissions for MIS-C were at around one a week in May despite high Covid-19 case numbers, according to Alasdair Munro, a pediatric infectious-disease specialist at the University of Southampton, U.K., who has reviewed the latest U.K. data on admission rates for the condition.

Dr. Munro said there was evidence that both a buildup of immunity and changes in the virus are playing a role.

Some studies examining the effect of vaccination on rates of MIS-C suggest that immunity against Covid-19 reduces the risk of going on to develop the inflammatory condition following an infection.

A small Danish study published in JAMA Pediatrics in June found that from January to March this year, vaccinated children were significantly less likely than unvaccinated ones to develop MIS-C following a Covid-19 infection. An earlier study conducted during the Delta wave in the U.S. by researchers at the CDC estimated that two shots of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc.and BioNTech SE vaccine were 91% effective against MIS-C.

The Danish study also suggests that changes to the virus are playing a part. Although vaccinated children were less likely to develop MIS-C than unvaccinated children, rates among both groups were lower than in earlier waves.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-c ... 1658307276

[Gadianton]

1) Rhetorical, right?

Quite literal. I would like to know if Binger thinks vaccination is more effective, or less effective than Ivermectin.

She emphasized a distinction that I see get lost in the general media sometimes: antibody response and T-cell response. At least with Omicron, antibodies protect against infection and T-cells against serious disease. Most of stories in the mainstream press that talk about declining immunity are referring to antibody response.

I agree. antibodies get all the press because of the hope of "sterilization immunity" where we stop the disease without infection on both a personal and community level. Some vaccine campaigns get lucky and achieve this. Once a cell is infected, antibodies can't do crap. You need t-cells for that. It's harder for viruses to evade the cellular response because of the diversity of human HLA genes across the population, which create proteins that attach to different pieces of virus remnants (as they are marked and broken down within the cell) from person to person. So even if your antibodies are low, having t-cells ready to kill infected cells that have MHC molecules presenting pieces of virus will make the difference between life and death.

But if you have cattle grade Ivermectin on hand, you don't need antibodies or t-cells, so screw it.

[Res Ipsa]

One of the folks I follow on Twitter is a vaccine researcher who I think colors inside the lines when it comes to the scientific literature. She posted a thread today on vaccines and the BA.4 and BA 5. variants. She emphasized a distinction that I see get lost in the general media sometimes: antibody response and T-cell response. At least with Omicron, antibodies protect against infection and T-cells against serious disease. Most of stories in the mainstream press that talk about declining immunity are referring to antibody response. So, the protection against infection from Omicron strains declines over a relatively short period of time, but the T-cell immunity continues to provide protection against serious disease.

The graphs for NYC comparing vaccinated vs. unvaccinated folks was interesting to me in terms of gauging the effect of vaccination on hospitalization. (by the way, for those graphs, "vaccinated" = original 2 dose Moderna/Pfizer or 1 dose J&J.) She also reminded readers that "milder" does not equal "mild." As used throughout the pandemic, a "mild" case is essentially one that doesn't require hospitalization.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 85474.html

Full link please?

Sorry.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 85474.html

[Res Ipsa]

.
Here’s a little bit of good news …

A serious inflammatory complication that strikes some children in the weeks following a Covid-19 infection has almost disappeared. A buildup of immunity and changes to the virus both likely play a part, pediatric infectious-disease doctors and researchers said.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome is afflicting far fewer children as a proportion of known Covid-19 cases than during earlier waves of the pandemic, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The condition, also known as MIS-C, is similar to Kawasaki disease, another rare pediatric inflammatory condition. Early in the pandemic, doctors believed they were seeing Kawasaki disease but soon recognized MIS-C as a distinct condition associated with an earlier Covid-19 infection.

MIS-C can cause inflammation two to six weeks after infection with Covid-19 in organ systems including the heart, lungs, kidneys and brain. Researchers haven’t determined why some children developed the condition but they have linked it to a hyperactive immune response. Treated with drugs such as intravenous immune globulin or corticosteroids, most children make a full recovery. Even so, the condition can be deadly. In the U.S., 70 children have died from MIS-C since the start of the pandemic, according to the CDC.

In past pandemic waves, an increase in cases was followed by a rise in MIS-C around two weeks later. But the extent of the rise has been diminishing. The highest rates of MIS-C in the U.S. occurred during the Alpha wave that peaked in early 2021. A gentler rise accompanied the Delta wave the following summer and a yet-smaller increase came during the first Omicron wave this past winter, despite the record-high case numbers caused by the highly mutated strain.

Now, cases are climbing again, but MIS-C isn’t.

Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have been rising since April, and are likely far higher than official data suggests due to the increase in at-home testing, public-health experts say. But average daily reported cases of MIS-C haven’t risen above one or two since March, according to CDC data through June 27. The data are incomplete and numbers could rise, the CDC said.

The same decoupling between Covid-19 infection rates and MIS-C is happening elsewhere. In England, hospital admissions for MIS-C were at around one a week in May despite high Covid-19 case numbers, according to Alasdair Munro, a pediatric infectious-disease specialist at the University of Southampton, U.K., who has reviewed the latest U.K. data on admission rates for the condition.

Dr. Munro said there was evidence that both a buildup of immunity and changes in the virus are playing a role.

Some studies examining the effect of vaccination on rates of MIS-C suggest that immunity against Covid-19 reduces the risk of going on to develop the inflammatory condition following an infection.

A small Danish study published in JAMA Pediatrics in June found that from January to March this year, vaccinated children were significantly less likely than unvaccinated ones to develop MIS-C following a Covid-19 infection. An earlier study conducted during the Delta wave in the U.S. by researchers at the CDC estimated that two shots of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc.and BioNTech SE vaccine were 91% effective against MIS-C.

The Danish study also suggests that changes to the virus are playing a part. Although vaccinated children were less likely to develop MIS-C than unvaccinated children, rates among both groups were lower than in earlier waves.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-c ... 1658307276

Good news indeed.

[Vēritās]

You're living in a dream world if you think scientists are wasting valuable time and money debunking drugs that have no possible theoretical mechanism of action. 174 studies are not needed to debunk the flat earth theory.

You're living in a dream world if you think there are 174 legit, controlled, randomized, double-blind and well financed studies done to see if Ivermectin cures or prevents COVID. The link you rely on for your "174 studies" includes studies that predate the pandemic for crying out loud. Isn't it weird how the vast majority of those "studies" took place well after March 2021 when the horse paste phenomenon made national headlines and Joe Rogan announced he was taking it? In fact there were more "studies" in March 2021 than any other month.

This is because COVID treatments had already been turned into a political football. If legit scientists really believed it was a potential cure to be studied, then why were studies being done even after the FDA warned against using it, effectively declaring it a fake cure? The reasons were political, and nothing more.

This is why there were zero studies done in March 2020. Only two studies took place anywhere in the world in April 2020 and they were in vitro ! The third "study" was in May somewhere in Peru and it was an observational case of only 7 patients! Yeah, I'm sure this involved a lot of "time and money" to say "look, we gave it to seven patients and they didn't die." Given that people had a 99% chance of surviving COVID without any medication at all, such anecdotal evidence becomes scientifically meaningless. Chalking these things up as "studies" is laughable.

Steroids were not designed to treat COVID and they work to treat COVID.

Corticosteroids are developed naturally in the body's adrenal glands, and they are a part of our natural immune system. How is that not a designed purpose for treating a virus?

Meanwhile, well known anti-virals like acyclovir haven't been studied much at all as a viable treatment for COVID. Why not? It seems like anti-virals designed to fight off viruses would be more useful in studies than anti-parasitics like Ivermectin. Well, because no one in Right Wing fake news land was promoting acyclovir as a cure.

Because now the variants are breaking through the vaccine protection and we need therapies to treat those who are infected before they get so sick that they are in the ICU with 85% O2 saturation.

You're exaggerating and misrepresenting the science. Current vaccines still provide the best protection available even for the current variants.

If you haven’t gotten your Covid booster shot yet, public health experts say BA.5 is a prime reason to get it — and soon.

The Covid subvariant appears to be the virus’s most transmissible strain thus far, powering a nationwide surge in new cases that hasn’t slowed since March. That’s a problem, even as hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively low: The longer Covid circulates, the more likely it is to mutate into a form that’s both transmissible and severe.

Experts say booster shots are key to stopping BA.5 in its tracks, and all Americans age 5 and older are eligible five months after completing their primary vaccine series. But only 48.1% of eligible people in the U.S. have actually gotten boosted, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. More than 100 million lag behind, a problem for health officials already mulling the authorization of a second booster for most U.S. adults. - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/covid-v ... osted.html

See also Res Ipsa's link above.