Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

[Moksha]

Protest in St. Petersburg - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdFZLhVAhTk

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Combine what Dr. W has explained with this:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... fsb-a77603

tl;dr - ~4M Russians have left the country since February.

Imagine how many will leave now that Putin is mobilizing men. This’ll only exasperate exacerbate<- Russia’s demographic problem.

edit: I guess we don’t have to imagine it:



edit2: russia-georgia border:



- Doc

[Chap]

[...] This’ll only exasperate Russia’s demographic problem.

- Doc

I know you really meant "exacerbate" - but hell! I really like the idea of exasperating Putin, so who cares?

[DrW]

Protest in St. Petersburg - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdFZLhVAhTk

Washington Post Headline
Sept 21, 2022

Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses

“In the face of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin warned. “This is not a bluff,” he said, in a clear reference to Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Great. Assuming they can actually find them, up to 300,000 more unwilling "cucumbers" (Russian regular Army term for new conscripts) will be sent to a battlefield that does not have secure communications, adequate weapons, or sufficient logistical support for the unfortunate Russians already there.

Up to 300,000 Russian reservists will be removed as workers from the already struggling Russian economy and provided with WWI and WWII-era equipment. Most will likely spend the winter without adequate clothing, food, or shelter. Hardly any of them will ever see the enemy.

However, many of them will needlessly be wounded or die from increased Ukrainian use of HIMARS, M777 Howitzers, a growing collection of advanced European self-propelled and towed artillery systems, other NATO smart stand-off weapons, and eventually Ukrainian F-15 "bomb trucks".

It does about as much good to send reservist troops with rifles to an artillery duel as it does to bring a knife to a gunfight.

F-16 air superiority fighters, with BVR radars and air-to-air missile systems, will be advised of enemy targets in Ukrainian airspace by patrolling AWACS and will eventually clear the skies of Russian aircraft, often without ever actually seeing them.

All this means is that it will take a bit longer to remove Russian forces from Ukraine and more people will die - on both sides.

Putin cannot make up for decades of corruption and neglect of the military by mobilizing 300,000 more men as cannon fodder.

Military doctrine 101: as Morley, Doc cam, and others here know, to have a chance of winning against a dug-in force defending their own territory, the aggressor force must outmatch defenders by 3 to 1 in personnel and on-par equipment. Russia has not yet, and now never will, achieve this kind of parity with Ukrainian forces backed by NATO.

[malkie]

Thank you, DrW. That was a splendid response, very helpful.

The extent to which ordinary Russians, especially outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, live in an environment created over decades of state-controlled propaganda and isolation, and the effects that generation after generation of poverty has on the culture and psyche, is hard to fathom by citizens of the developed West. The reference to learned helplessness upthread applies.

Think about what life here would be like here if the only information available on TV were from Fox News. Think about the constant stream of misinformation and irrelevant nonsense on Fox network opinion shows intended to anger the audience and focus that anger on the imagined enemy - all to gain an audience and advertising revenue. Think about how warped and out of touch with reality the worldview of rabid Trump followers or true believers in Q-anon can be.

And while you are at it, think about the fact that Trump won 58% of the vote in the 2020 election in Mormon Utah and that the threat represented by Trump and his ilk - more dangerous to the US than Putin and Russia - still exists.

I mean...yep. I get that and it speaks loudly. Imagining Trump successfully overthrowing the 2020 election says plenty here.

After Putin attacked Ukraine in February, and before Mar-a-Lago was searched for stolen classified documents in August, Russian propagandists and media openly referred to The Donald as "our Agent Trump”. They assured their audiences that, with Russia’s help, Trump would be re-elected in 2024 and everything would again be smooth sailing as it was before the 2020 US election was stolen by the anti-Russian Democrats.

My god. Just what we need.

And just think - thanks to the GOP you might well actually get it.

[DrW]

Russia Implodes After Putin Summons 300,000 to Die for Him

Russian citizens' reaction to Putin's mobilization*:

The backlash was swift: “The crazy old man is going all in, his bets–are our lives. They promised us to take Kyiv in three days. The Ukrainians took in three hours what we took in three months. Now there is a mobilization for ‘fresh meat’ in order to bomb civilian sites,” hackers wrote in a statement posted on the homepage of St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport.

“Ukraine already won. The question is how badly we’ll lose,” the statement read.

*https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-im ... DAfternoon

[Kishkumen]

Combine what Dr. W has explained with this:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/ ... fsb-a77603

tl;dr - ~4M Russians have left the country since February.

Imagine how many will leave now that Putin is mobilizing men. This’ll only exasperate exacerbate<- Russia’s demographic problem.

edit: I guess we don’t have to imagine it:



edit2: russia-georgia border:



- Doc

Oh, so now they are invading Finland and Georgia too?

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

If you want to know which side William “Moscow” Schryver is on get a load of these instructions by Wagner Group’s Alexei Milchakov:

https://Twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 5589215233

He describes himself as a Nazi here:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-neo-naz ... 71760.html

Perhaps Will the Shill should be asking himself this question:



- Doc

[DrW]

Here is a rumor mill update on Ukrainian pilot training and the provision of F-15 and F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as mentioned earlier.

- Training of Ukrainian pilots and aircraft maintenance personnel on F-15 and F-16 aircraft and weapons systems is likely to be completed by February of 2023.

- Infrastructure needed to support these fighter jets in Ukraine includes a secure wireless link (probably based on Irridium or Star Link) that will allow personnel in the US and Western Europe to assist in-country Ukrainian technicians and mechanics in maintaining the aircraft and weapons systems.

- F-15 and F-16 fighter jets will allow deployment of an array of advanced weapons systems that cannot be supported by the Russian Mig and Sukhoi jets now in use by Ukraine. One example is the anti-radiation "HARM" missile used to take out the radars (and pretty much anything else) comprising enemy anti-aircraft batteries. With this new equipment, including AWACS support, Ukraine will begin to achieve air superiority. This will eventually become air supremacy in the battlespace (or even in the entire region if it comes to that).

- A great advantage to integrating western jets into the Ukraine Air Force is that there are a lot more F-16s and F-15s in the West than there are Russian fighter jets (mainly Mig 29s). This means that once a cadre of Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel is established, there are several western countries that would be glad to donate their F-16s to Ukraine, especially if they could get a good deal on new stealth fighters like the F-35 as replacements.

- Having F-15s and F-16s as weapons platforms increases the array of, and possible sources for, advanced stand-off weapons. For example, an F-15E Strike Eagle can carry and launch extended-range stand-off cruise missiles, which are accurate to within 10 feet of the designated target. The joint air-to-surface-standoff-missile (JASSM family) has an effective range of up to 1000 km (or 1,800 km for the ER version). They are also stealthy, making them more difficult to defend against, especially when the enemy targeting radars have been taken out in previous SEAD missions using anti-radiation missiles.

One can imagine that this kind of information is becoming available (as rumor, of course) to give Putin some idea of what his forces, including his supposed 300,000 new "cucumbers", will be facing if they are still in Ukraine come early next year. While Putin himself may not care, his military commanders and troops in the field certainly will. The longer Putin waits to withdraw, the stronger Ukraine will become as an effective, if not yet in name, member of NATO.

[malkie]

Here is a rumor mill update on Ukrainian pilot training and the provision of F-15 and F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as mentioned earlier.

- Training of Ukrainian pilots and aircraft maintenance personnel on F-15 and F-16 aircraft and weapons systems is likely to be completed by February of 2023.

- Infrastructure needed to support these fighter jets in Ukraine includes a secure wireless link (probably based on Irridium or Star Link) that will allow personnel in the US and Western Europe to assist in-country Ukrainian technicians and mechanics in maintaining the aircraft and weapons systems.

- F-15 and F-16 fighter jets will allow deployment of an array of advanced weapons systems that cannot be supported by the Russian Mig and Sukhoi jets now in use by Ukraine. One example is the anti-radiation "HARM" missile used to take out the radars (and pretty much anything else) comprising enemy anti-aircraft batteries. With this new equipment, including AWACS support, Ukraine will begin to achieve air superiority. This will eventually become air supremacy in the battlespace (or even in the entire region if it comes to that).

- A great advantage to integrating western jets into the Ukraine Air Force is that there are a lot more F-16s and F-15s in the West than there are Russian fighter jets (mainly Mig 29s). This means that once a cadre of Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel is established, there are several western countries that would be glad to donate their F-16s to Ukraine, especially if they could get a good deal on new stealth fighters like the F-35 as replacements.

- Having F-15s and F-16s as weapons platforms increases the array of, and possible sources for, advanced stand-off weapons. For example, an F-15E Strike Eagle can carry and launch extended-range stand-off cruise missiles, which are accurate to within 10 feet of the designated target. The joint air-to-surface-standoff-missile (JASSM family) has an effective range of up to 1000 km (or 1,800 km for the ER version). They are also stealthy, making them more difficult to defend against, especially when the enemy targeting radars have been taken out in previous SEAD missions using anti-radiation missiles.

One can imagine that this kind of information is becoming available (as rumor, of course) to give Putin some idea of what his forces, including his supposed 300,000 new "cucumbers", will be facing if they are still in Ukraine come early next year. While Putin himself may not care, his military commanders and troops in the field certainly will. The longer Putin waits to withdraw, the stronger Ukraine will become as an effective, if not yet in name, member of NATO.

In the 5 months between now and February, with rumours like this going around, how likely is it that an increasingly frustrated Putin will prepare and execute a devastating blow to Ukraine to blunt the F15/F16 "plan", or prevent it from happening at all?