Mopologist William Schryver Continues His Descent Into Madness

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

It's interesting in an of course he did this sort of way how Putin, the self-styled "anti-Nazi crusader" chose the 30th of September, of all days, to announce the Russian theft of Ukrainian territory - it’s very same day Hitler announced their partial annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938.



- Doc

[dantana]

I wonder if it would be wise just now to look at buying a timeshare at Mar-a-Lago, or maybe in Will's subdivision. I've heard Putin takes care of his buddies.

On a less silly note - DrW, if you have the time, what is the status of Americas ICBM countermeasures? Does Putin have 15 miles outside of Eugene Or. targeted? Asking for A-Mike.

[DrW]

On a less silly note - DrW, if you have the time, what is the status of Americas ICBM countermeasures? Does Putin have 15 miles outside of Eugene Or. targeted? Asking for A-Mike.

'Tana,

Will see what I can find out from those who know more than I do. In the meantime - perhaps a very well-provisioned blue water passage of the kind you made in the past (but this time to a remote tropical island) would be the ticket.

[DrW]

On a less silly note - DrW, if you have the time, what is the status of Americas ICBM countermeasures? Does Putin have 15 miles outside of Eugene Or. targeted? Asking for A-Mike.

Eugene Oregon is unlikely to be on the Russian nuclear attack target list. It would be surprising if there were any targets in Oregon. Washington State, on the other hand, was a target-rich environment in earlier times (and may well be today). There was the Hanford Atomic Works (atomic weapons materials production), Boeing Airplane Company (aircraft), Grand Coulee Dam (aluminum for aircraft production), and the submarine base in Bremerton (submarine operations in the Pacific). In the Cold War following WWII, weapons production facilities were considered priority targets.

As a kid, we lived on a farm across the Columbia River from the Hanford Atomic Works. At that time the Hanford site was “protected” from Russian bombers by a Nike missile battery. The installation included a large radar station on the top of the highest hill near the Handord site with a radome visible for many miles around. The Nikes were designed to defend against Russian bombers, and would probably have been effective. In the age of the ICBM, that Nike installation is a museum piece. ICBM technology has advanced much further than anti-ballistic missile (ABM) technology.

For obvious reasons, not much public information is available about current US ICBM defenses. ABM systems have been a subject of nuclear arms talks, and we are assured that all 50 states are covered (whatever that means). In any case, it is well recognized that whatever ABM system we do have would not be all that effective against a massive first strike with missiles having multiple re-entry vehicles. Too many targets - too little time.

A more important consideration is reducing the probability of nuclear war by having credible deterrence. If an enemy knows that they cannot eliminate the threat of retaliation, no matter how massive the first strike, they are not likely to start a strategic nuclear exchange. The US maintains a Nuclear Triad defense posture (nuclear-capable bombers, land - based ICBMs, and submarine-based nuclear ballistic missiles). Among these, the most effective deterrent is the US fleet of ballistic missile submarines (or boomers) as mentioned earlier.

Nuclear reactor power allows these vessels to stay submerged for months at a time. They remain hidden in the oceans immune from any first strike. They can communicate and launch their long-range nuclear warhead ballistic missiles without surfacing.

As shown below, the US, UK, and France (NATO countries), have more boomer capacity than the Russians. Given the fate of the Kursk and the lack of attention and funds given to the Russian military in general as of late, it is unlikely that the Russian fleet has been adequately maintained and would perform up to spec if required to fight. Related to the discussion, US attack submarines (Los Angeles-class, Seawolf-class, and soon Virginia-class) have the capability to track Russian boomers and destroy them with torpedoes if necessary.



Furthermore, from the NATO perspective, NATO pretty much wins a strategic nuclear exchange with Russia if it can destroy Moscow and St. Petersburg - two cities that are 400 miles apart. That is, with these two targets taken out, NATO effectively eliminates any long-term Russian threat to the West.

To eliminate the (imagined until now) western "threat" to Russia, on the other hand, Russian missiles would need to take out dozens of cities and military targets located thousands of miles apart (but not including Eugene, Oregon.)

[Everybody Wang Chung]

Just another example of how accurate William Schryver has been on his war coverage:

Will Schryver
@imetatronink
The situation around Liman appears to have taken a dramatic turn. Multiple reports of Ukraine attempting to rush reinforcements to the area from the south -- would seem to indicate the Russians have fed major reinforcements into the battle and are achieving success.
12:24 PM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App

https://Twitter.com/imetatronink/status ... gr%5Etweet


A few hours after William's tweet about how well Russia was doing in Lyman, we get this information:

Russia said Saturday it was retreating from the eastern Ukrainian city of Lyman, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed the city would be brought under Russian control through a widely condemned annexation in an embarrassingly quick concession from the Kremlin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA12tABA

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Just another example of how accurate William Schryver has been on his war coverage:

Will Schryver
@imetatronink
The situation around Liman appears to have taken a dramatic turn. Multiple reports of Ukraine attempting to rush reinforcements to the area from the south -- would seem to indicate the Russians have fed major reinforcements into the battle and are achieving success.
12:24 PM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App

https://Twitter.com/imetatronink/status ... gr%5Etweet

A few hours after William's tweet about how well Russia was doing in Lyman, we get this information:

Russia said Saturday it was retreating from the eastern Ukrainian city of Lyman, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed the city would be brought under Russian control through a widely condemned annexation in an embarrassingly quick concession from the Kremlin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA12tABA

Twitter: “ Conservative Republicans were once Soviet Union/Russia’s greatest adversaries. Now the @CPAC/MAGA dominated @GOP is Putin’s greatest US ally. First Russia supports Trump then he compromises GOP. This must be the most successful foreign intelligence coup in history.
Quote Tweet

The Lincoln Project

@ProjectLincoln

16h
This is what @CPAC tried to hide.:



- Doc

[DrW]

Twitter: “ Conservative Republicans were once Soviet Union/Russia’s greatest adversaries. Now the @CPAC/MAGA dominated @GOP is Putin’s greatest US ally. First Russia supports Trump then he compromises GOP. This must be the most successful foreign intelligence coup in history.

- Doc

Agree 100%, Doc.

Russia enjoyed great success in backing Trump and influencing, if not controlling, his foreign policy decisions when it came to Russia, even to the extent that they referred to him as "our Agent Trump" (not kidding). Putin and his advisors apparently believed the GOP and Fox News when they claimed that America was coming apart at the seams and the Democrats were weak when it came to supporting the military. This Trump-induced fantasy view of the US was no doubt a major factor in the decision to attack Ukraine.

To their great regret, I'm sure, Putin and many of his advisers and generals chose to live in the Trump/GOP fantasy world where the US military was weak, the Putin puppet Trump really won in 2020 and would be returned to the White House in 2024, and NATO would not come to the aid of Ukraine.

The Ukraine army's surprise offensive in the Kharkiv area and the more recent success in controlling the strategic city of Lyman the day after Russia celebrated its annexation is, unfortunately, emblematic (or a type and shadow for believers) of what lies ahead for Russia in Ukraine.

[dantana]

Thanks DrW! Very informative particulars.

Yeah, my quick scan of the wiki showed that there were some systems in place to take out a few at once, from the random rogue state. And with the capability to destroy them before they re-enter the atmosphere. But, it seems the public has not been made aware of any systems in place to shoot down a mass firing. Hopefully, maybe there are some systems developed that the boys are wanting to keep secret. Also hopefully these secrets weren't stored at Mar-a-Lago.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

This is an interesting update:

@JackDetsch

Bringing you stories from the Pentagon. National security reporter

@foreignpolicy
. Tell me something new: Signal → 510-439-7894 / email → jack.detsch (at) gmail

NEW: U.S. has not seen a large-scale movement of Russian forces despite battlefield losses to Ukraine in the east and south of the country: senior U.S. military official

If this is true this is a huge problem for Russian conventional and conscripted forces. It means they can’t move their personnel and matériel around their battle space. It means they’re running out of everything. It means they’re not getting air support, mechanical support, medical support, food, clothing, you name it. And judging from the videos, the conscripts Russian leadership is dredging up are dead men walking due to everything above and an utter lack of training that’ll leave them with zero discipline in the face of mortal danger.

They’re screwed.

If Putin uses nukes, it’s because he has nothing else. If he wants to send a clear status update to the entire world about his ability to protect his country and its vassal states, beyond what this war revealed, he’ll use nukes.

- Doc

[Morley]

For what it’s worth:

https://slantchev.wordpress.com/

Branislav L. Slantchev is a political science professor at UC San Diego. He writes an accessible and seemingly informed blog about this whole Russia / Ukraine conflict.

When I check to see if our own dear Mr Schryver has posted anything new, I also check Dr Slantchev’s site. Thus far, the prof from Bulgaria has out-performed the sage of Cedar City.

William hasn’t written anything for a few days. I can hardly wait to compare them again.