We Might Be Alone in the Universe

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drumdude
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

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doubtingthomas wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:28 am
drumdude wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 12:45 am

Life could require a sun just like ours, but it also might not.
True, but if life doesn't require a star like ours, then why is our sun not a Red Dwarf (the most common type)? Why would we happen to be in a very unusual solar system? Think about it. What are the odds?
drumdude wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 12:45 am
But even there we've seen on our own planet how readily life adapts to its hostile environment in completely surprising ways.
Yes, that's the result of billions of years of evolution. We do not know if life can begin in hostile environments.

For all but the last 200 years of life’s 3.7 billion year existence on Earth, life was incapable of creating radio waves. What are the odds that you and I happen to be living in those 200 years? Creating radio waves right now to communicate with each other?
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

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doubtingthomas wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 12:20 am
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:28 pm
Dark Forest theory.

:shock:
Cain addressed this.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/7K3HHdxIt8dRYesXmpQ2kV

The Dark Forest doesn't explain why we happen to live in an unusual star system.
At what timestamp does he address the Dark Forest theory?
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by Physics Guy »

I haven’t kept fully up on exoplanets in the past few years, and I’m with Chap about videos. What’s so unusual about our solar system?

We should keep in mind that our limited ability to detect exoplanets skews the data away from planets like ours. We don’t actually see any exoplanets. They’re too far away and not bright enough. We mainly infer their existence from subtle Doppler shifts in the light from their suns, as the suns swing around, very slightly, under the gravitational tug of the orbiting planets. The biggest planets orbiting closest to their suns—hot Jupiters—are the easiest for us to detect, so they’re more common among the exoplanets we’ve “seen” than they probably really are among exoplanets.

What might really be unusual for Earth is the size of our moon, and this could conceivably be important for more complex life, in having given us tides, so that our shorelines have had this regular twice-daily cycle of wet and dry. Maybe that’s an important bottleneck. But who knows?
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by doubtingthomas »

drumdude wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:06 am
For all but the last 200 years of life’s 3.7 billion year existence on Earth, life was incapable of creating radio waves. What are the odds that you and I happen to be living in those 200 years?
We got lucky.

Nobody knows if there's life in other planets, so we can't say we are lucky to be in a very unusual solar system.
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by doubtingthomas »

Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:23 pm
I haven’t kept fully up on exoplanets in the past few years, and I’m with Chap about videos.
Dr. Kipping is an active exoplanet researcher. You can read his papers, but his videos are probably easier to understand. The description of the "Is the Sun Unusual" video says, "This video is based on research conducted at the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia University, New York."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAQKJ41eDTs

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 12:58 pm
https://open.spotify.com/episode/7K3HHdxIt8dRYesXmpQ2kV

At what timestamp does he address the Dark Forest theory?
James Webb is capable of detecting industrial emissions in exoplanets. More advanced telescopes would be able to detect lights (if there are any) in far distant planets. I don't think civilizations are able to hide from a very advance civilization, so most of the Dark Forest theory doesn't work. If there's a quite Dark Forest, we should still expect to see alien probes (or at least old spy alien probes) orbiting the Earth.

Cain addressed the "The immortal Galatic Dictator" which is like a Dark Forest Theory. I'll find it and give you a timestamp later.
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by Physics Guy »

James Webb can analyze the atmosphere of an exoplanet by seeing what frequencies of light from its sun are slightly attenuated when the planet’s atmosphere absorbs them. This only works if the planet’s orbit happens to bring it directly in line between us and its sun. That is, its orbit has to be perfectly edge-on to us. It happens occasionally but is very rare. We have no way to study the atmospheres of most exoplanets.

If this video is easy to follow, it should be easy to explain its argument, no? I really hate watching videos.
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by doubtingthomas »

Physics Guy wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:23 pm
What’s so unusual about our solar system?
1. Our Sun is a type G2 star, most stars are red dwarfs.
2. The Sun is very quiet compared to other type G2 stars on average, both young and old.
3. There is no Super Earth in the inner Solar System.
4. Jupiter may have played a role in the formation of life. If true, then life in the Universe is probably rare.

What's your opinion?
Physics Guy wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 1:35 am
That is, its orbit has to be perfectly edge-on to us. It happens occasionally but is very rare.
If the universe is a Dark Forest, should we expect James Webb to detect at least one planet with industrial gases?
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by Physics Guy »

Stars don't have a lot of ways of being different. They can differ slightly in initial chemical composition, but this makes negligible difference to how they behave—no star begins with more than a percent or so of anything but hydrogen and helium, and these two elements are always in close to the same 3:1 proportion that came out of the Big Bang. Stars mainly differ in mass and in age. There's an aging track that essentially all stars follow as they fuse their hydrogen into helium, with a bunch of late-stage branch points depending on mass. Give an astrophysicist a star's mass and age, and she can usually tell you almost everything about it. Stars can differ somewhat in how fast they are rotating, but this doesn't make much difference unless they are spinning quite unusually fast, because at stellar masses gravity easily dominates centrifugal effects. The only thing I can think of that can make a star evolve differently from the standard time track is interaction with another close star. A star is more likely than not to have a neighbour close enough to affect its motion, but it's rare for two stars to come close enough to affect each other's structure.

I don't know about our sun being unusually quiet for a star. Some stars do seem to produce massive flares that could rip away planetary atmospheres. Big solar flares are a magnetic phenomenon; stellar magnetism is due to convection; and convection is a bigger factor in smaller stars (because at the higher temperatures inside larger stars, heat is mostly carried by radiation). So the fact that our sun is magnetically calmer than a lot of stars is not really a separate fact from its being larger than all the many small stars—it's just a consequence of that same fact.

Extremely few other stars are going to be exactly like our sun, but any star with close to its mass, and around roughly its age, will be quite similar to it. The moderate scarcity of G class stars, among all stars, is just an indication of how common it is to have around a solar mass and be somewhere in stellar middle age. Somewhere between 5 and 10% of stars are G class. It's a fuzzy number because it's hard to know how many of the smallest stars exist. Small, cool objects are hard to see, and if you can see them, it can be hard to be sure whether they are stars or large gas planets.

There are still an awful lot of stars like our sun out there. If our star is like 1 in 10 stars, that's hardly a big enough fluke to make us think it had a lot to do with our planet developing life. Maybe it did, but as evidence that it actually did, the relative rarity of mid-sized, middle-aged stars like our sun is only going to nudge the betting odds a little bit. It's not a strong argument for anything.

Not having any big planets in small orbits is probably not at all an unusual feature of our solar system. It's just an unusual feature among the extrasolar planetary systems that we have been able to detect, because our detection methods select very strongly for large planets in small orbits. In particular our reliance on transiting—the planet crossing our line of sight to the star—really dramatically favours large, closely orbiting planets.

I've been disappointed by how hard it is to find any discussion, on otherwise authoritative websites, of how rare transit is and how severely this skews our data on exoplanets. Sometimes someone admits that transit is "rare", but they never seem to give any percentages to say just how rare it is. A little bit of geometry, though, seems to show that the odds of an orbit being edge-on enough for a transit are the ratio of the star's diameter plus the planet's diameter to the diameter of the planet's orbit. So it would take about a 0.5% fluke for the Earth-like orbit of an Earth-like planet around a sun-like star to show up in transit. 40-odd light years from here there is a little red dwarf with seven planets orbiting edge-on to us (the TRAPPIST-1 system); their smallest orbit radius is 100 times smaller than ours, while the star has about a tenth the diameter of our sun, so they are only about a 5% fluke—no big surprise to find one of them among the seventy or so star systems within that distance from us.

Because of its dependence on transiting, terrestrial exoplanet astronomy is polling with sampling fractions around or below a few percent, and a strong bias for small orbits.
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Res Ipsa
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

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It depends on what the OP is asking. If “alone” means the only intelligent species that exists in the universe, I’d say the sheer numbers of possible planets in the universe makes intelligent life anywhere at any time a near certainty. Speculation about a necessary connection between our sun/solar system and the ability for life to form is insufficient to let us lower the number of planets with life significantly.

The alien probe argument has as its foundation a bunch of fanciful hand waving. Right now a Van Neumann probe is more science fiction than science. To say it’s 100 years away is rank speculation. Given energy and resource constraints, we don’t even know if it’s practical to build such a thing. Nor do we know whether a society potentially capable of building such a thing would actually build one.

The claim that probes would travel at near-light speeds ignores the problem of increasing mass as speed increases. That the probe itself experiences time dilation doesn’t change the time it takes the probe to move from one star to another relative to the two stars. So, the speed of light remains a hard speed limit.

In addition, as Everybody Wang Chung posted, the expansion of space itself makes a large percentage of the universe both inaccessible and unbearable to us. And that expansion is accelerating. There is a huge number of planets for which we would be forever unreachable by probes.

Given all this, the absence of alien probes orbiting earth is insignificant in answering the question.

But, if the question is whether we will ever find another intelligent species that we can interact with, there are lots of good reasons to believe the answer is no.
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Re: We Might Be Alone in the Universe

Post by doubtingthomas »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:54 pm
Speculation about a necessary connection between our sun/solar system and the ability for life to form is insufficient to let us lower the number of planets with life significantly.
You are missing the point. Nobody is rejecting the possibility of life forming in many star systems. However, if life is possible everywhere, why do we happen to be in a very unusual solar system? Perhaps we are just lucky to be in a special solar system, but we don't know that.

I really recommend you watch this video,

"Is the Solar System Special?" by exoplanet researcher Dr. Kipping
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ixuftVYC5o

References:
1. Jupiter-like planets in Jupiter-like orbits are uncommon.

"Our results are consistent with the literature, i.e., that Jupiter-like planets in Jupiter-like orbits are relatively uncommon, occurring around less than 10% of stars."
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3 ... X/819/1/28

2. There's no Super Earth in the Inner Solar System.

"a significant majority of the long-period gas giants identified in RV surveys of field stars likely host inner super-Earths."

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3 ... 881/aaf57f

3. Only about five percent of stars are solar-like. To make things crazier, "The Sun is less active than other solar-like stars". That means only about 0.5% of stars are truly sun-like.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020S ... R/abstract'

If you multiply points one, two, and three, you get a very improbable solar system. If Jupiter was essential to the formation of life on Earth, then that could suggest that life is rare.
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:54 pm
In addition, as Everybody Wang Chung posted, the expansion of space itself makes a large percentage of the universe both inaccessible and unbearable to us. And that expansion is accelerating. There is a huge number of planets for which we would be forever unreachable by probes.
That's true, good point!
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:54 pm
It depends on what the OP is asking. If “alone” means the only intelligent species that exists in the universe, I’d say the sheer numbers of possible planets in the universe makes intelligent life anywhere at any time a near certainty.
Nobody knows the probability of life. For all we know it could be 1 in 10^50.

We could be alone in the Universe, but intelligent alien life could exists in other universes, do you deny that possibility?
Res Ipsa wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:54 pm
The claim that probes would travel at near-light speeds ignores the problem of increasing mass as speed increases. That the probe itself experiences time dilation doesn’t change the time it takes the probe to move from one star to another relative to the two stars. So, the speed of light remains a hard speed limit.
That wouldn't be a problem if an advance civilization is slowly expanding, or if an A.I. probe is inside another probe.

Voyagers 1 and 2 will orbit another star system in the far future, shouldn't we expect to find dead alien probes near the Earth?

Physics Guy wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 12:09 pm
So the fact that our sun is magnetically calmer than a lot of stars is not really a separate fact from its being larger than all the many small stars—it's just a consequence of that same fact.

Extremely few other stars are going to be exactly like our sun, but any star with close to its mass, and around roughly its age, will be quite similar to it. The moderate scarcity of G class stars, among all stars, is just an indication of how common it is to have around a solar mass and be somewhere in stellar middle age. Somewhere between 5 and 10% of stars are G class. It's a fuzzy number because it's hard to know how many of the smallest stars exist. Small, cool objects are hard to see, and if you can see them, it can be hard to be sure whether they are stars or large gas planets.

There are still an awful lot of stars like our sun out there. nce on transiting, terrestrial exoplanet astronomy is polling with sampling fractions around or below a few percent, and a strong bias for small orbits.
The Sun is unusually quiet compared to other type G2 stars. There are many stars out there, but how many stars are a quiet type G2 star with a Jupiter-like planet, but no super Earth in the inner orbit?

I would like your opinion on the papers I linked to.
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