The Political Impact of Failed Assassination

[Moksha]

So the shooter was 69?

[Kishkumen]

I thought it seemed shown the donation was by another person of the same name as well, having seen similar postings. I appreciate ceebs challenging that, too. Better to know I was wrong and have a chance to correct.

So the sequence of events is that he made a donation to ActBlue at the age of 17 and registered as a Republican after he turned 18. His dad was a Libertarian and his mother was a Democrat. It's really difficult to pigeonhole this guy politically.

[Xenophon]

I think this attempt has the potential to be a gigantic impact on the election but it is too soon to tell. If Trump can use the spotlight now to appear even remotely "statesman" like I could easily see him pulling in extra support. I'm hesitant to say that he can actually capitalize on this given how far off I was on his Covid response. When all that first began I was internally certain that he would be able to utilize it as a clincher for 2020. He would come out as a sort of war-time president and rally the nation against the disease but he... took a different direction. Although I think there is plenty of political hay to be made here, I'm not convinced he will be able to do it. Time will tell.

I'm very concerned about the political violence generically. Personal motivations of the shooter aside there is a very real possibility this results in further violence. I know many have made reference to the Reichstag fire but I'm also thinking about the Years of Lead, in which rising tensions lead to ~20 years of back and forth, left vs right violence in Italy (a simplified historical reading no doubt but I don't want to get too lost in those weeds). I'm hopeful that cooler heads can prevail and so far I'm seeing mostly hopeful messaging on that front but we still stand at a very dangerous edge and I worry the powder keg is just too volatile. We've seen historically how some bad breaks, unfortunate timings, and too little caution from leaders can ultimately spiral what might have been an isolated issue into something much, much worse.

[Morley]

So the sequence of events is that he made a donation to ActBlue at the age of 17 and registered as a Republican after he turned 18. His dad was a Libertarian and his mother was a Democrat. It's really difficult to pigeonhole this guy politically.

Agreed.

In the run-up to the Obama-McCain election, I donated to John McCain in the Republican primary, because I wanted the Republicans to make what I thought was the best choice on that side of the ticket. I did this in spite of the fact that, from the beginning, I enthusiastically supported Obama, and wanted him to win the overall race.

Sometimes, too much is made of political contributions and trying to ferret out what they mean.

[Morley]

I think this attempt has the potential to be a gigantic impact on the election but it is too soon to tell. If Trump can use the spotlight now to appear even remotely "statesman" like I could easily see him pulling in extra support. I'm hesitant to say that he can actually capitalize on this given how far off I was on his Covid response. When all that first began I was internally certain that he would be able to utilize it as a clincher for 2020. He would come out as a sort of war-time president and rally the nation against the disease but he... took a different direction. Although I think there is plenty of political hay to be made here, I'm not convinced he will be able to do it. Time will tell.

I'm very concerned about the political violence generically. Personal motivations of the shooter aside there is a very real possibility this results in further violence. I know many have made reference to the Reichstag fire but I'm also thinking about the Years of Lead, in which rising tensions lead to ~20 years of back and forth, left vs right violence in Italy (a simplified historical reading no doubt but I don't want to get too lost in those weeds). I'm hopeful that cooler heads can prevail and so far I'm seeing mostly hopeful messaging on that front but we still stand at a very dangerous edge and I worry the powder keg is just too volatile. We've seen historically how some bad breaks, unfortunate timings, and too little caution from leaders can ultimately spiral what might have been an isolated issue into something much, much worse.

This. I think you sum it up nicely, Xeno.

[Gadianton]

Another account is that in a class where the teacher asked what side of an issue the class was on, on certain issues, the entire class would be on the presumed "left" side while he alone would stand by himself on the presumed "right" side. A guy wearing camos and a mask. Unless something changes about his background of being bullied on a daily basis, his politics are incidental to other issues. I better make this part really clear to certain readers. He's a victim of right-wing gun culture among other things, even if he wasn't an integrated part of right-wing gun culture. In fact, if he were a total MAGA maniac, with lots of MAGA friends, proudly voted Trump, and he was making videos of himself threating Democrats and getting lols like crazy from fellow Rumblers, then this wouldn't have happened.

So whether he was pro-Biden or pro-Trump, it's incidental. He was a bullied loner, that's the motive. The enabling factor is right-wing gun culture, which Trump has become complicit with over time but it's not him fundamentally, along with all the threats and revolutionary rhetoric from right-wing media. There are numerous right-wing political ads that show right-wing politicians using guns to combat the left. Getting their "Rino" hunting license. Shooting at Nancy Pelosi and Biden. Christmas photos of Republican families with AR-15s, AR-15 lapel pins, and nonstop drama about civil war and have your guns ready.

He was a registered republican with an AR-15 and a libertarian dad. Where were his conservative friends? Where was the trad-wife girl from school who understood him? This was a school shooting. These bullied kids don't hone in on the bullies. They kill the popular kids, the kids that had what they couldn't have, or the kids who stood by and did nothing or who simply rejected them.

The fundamental doctrine of conservative Christians filling the airwaves is get your guns because the day is coming fast when the only way you'll be able to solve your problems is by armed revolution. His day came.

[Xenophon]

Thanks, Morely.

Again, discarding the terrible nature of the act for the moment, I'm not sure the timing could have potentially been any better for Trump. This isn't conspiratorial mind you, more of a pointing to the potential Black Swan nature of the event. Depending on how he and his team pivots around it, the placement just before the Republican Convention is big. It gives him even more leeway than he is normally allowed for coming across as a competent leader. Truly he may be able to have his cake (historically stoking violent rhetoric and embracing gun culture) and eat it too (issue calls for unity and shift division blames to Democrats) without as much push back.

On top of that, Biden had mostly weathered the worst of the stepping down discussion and had actually had several strong days on the campaign trail but just about everyone is going to look weak compared to someone getting shot at and pressing on.

[ceeboo]

So whether he was pro-Biden or pro-Trump

Given that he attempted to murder Trump, I think we are probably safe to assume that he was not pro-Trump. Biben? I have no idea what he thought of him.

He was a bullied loner, that's the motive.

Perhaps, but just like I expressed to kish in this thread, I am not comfortable suggesting the motives/motives of a man that I know nothing about. If you are confident explaining his motives to us, you are clearly free to do so. I would suggest that it's unwise and irresponsible to do so at this point but that's just me.

He was a registered republican with an AR-15 and a libertarian dad. Where were his conservative friends? Where was the trad-wife girl from school who understood him? This was a school shooting.

No, this was not a school shooting (It didn't happen at a school and school kids were not the targets) - This was an attempted assassination of a former US President - It happened at political rally - the target was the former President of the US.

[Molok]

Democrat officials have offered more sympathy and compassion (by at least a factor of ten) to Trump (a man they continually say is a threat to democracy itself) in the past few days then they ever have for the victims in Palestine. I have no idea what fresh level of hell awaits this country after November, but I am absolutely sure we deserve it.

[Kishkumen]

Given that he attempted to murder Trump, I think we are probably safe to assume that he was not pro-Trump. Biben? I have no idea what he thought of him.

Or maybe he was just looking for a convenient way to do something so catastrophically awful that he would be remembered in some way, have some meaning in his life.

Perhaps, but just like I expressed to kish in this thread, I am not comfortable suggesting the motives/motives of a man that I know nothing about. If you are confident explaining his motives to us, you are clearly free to do so. I would suggest that it's unwise and irresponsible to do so at this point but that's just me.

Fair enough, but people are going to speculate. I am pleased that thus far we (as a board) have not been beating each other up with any kind of erroneous conviction about the guy's motives.

No, this was not a school shooting (It didn't happen at a school and school kids were not the targets) - This was an attempted assassination of a former US President - It happened at political rally - the target was the former President of the US.

You are reading Gad too literally. He is saying that the profile of the shooter is much closer to that of a school shooter than I political shooter. I would say in his departure from the political shooter model he is comparable to with Reagan's shooter Hinckley. Hinckley seems not to have had a political beef with Reagan. Instead he was seeking to grab the attention of a famous actor.

I think it is entirely possible that a Biden rally on the same day, at the same time, and in the same location, might have resulted in an injured Biden. I don't see much evidence to support a political motive.