Prediction: Bye, Bye, Biden

[honorentheos]

Amazon has it?

I would guess that was hidden in the divorce split. So no, more like some 8th or 9th tier down in a game of shell companies housing shell companies...otherwise McKenzie would have it sold at auction and given half the value away to buy the world chocolate ice cream.

[ceeboo]

Nice. Why stop there? What happened to the Ark of the Covenant?

(twice in one night)

[Res Ipsa]

I predict that Biden exits the race

95%

and that Harris is the nominee.

If the process is deemed important, I would say very likely, but I would not be surprised if she wasn't.

]my final prediction: Trump 47.

If he's still alive, 80%

As far as I know, there is no process that says that if a sitting President withdraws from the race, the sitting Vice President takes his place. If Biden stays in the race, there is no process that requires him to pick Harris as a running mate.

I believe the process is this: If Biden withdraws, he releases his delegates. He can ask them to vote for Harris, but they have no obligation to do so.

Because Ohio has refused to give the customary waiver to its ballot deadline, the nominee must be selected before the convention. So, no floor fight unless Democrats choose to concede Ohio in August.

There have been too many black swans for me to make any sort of prediction, but I think Schumer’s call for Biden to step down is the most significant signal yet.

[ceeboo]

95%

If the process is deemed important, I would say very likely, but I would not be surprised if she wasn't.

If he's still alive, 80%

As far as I know, there is no process that says that if a sitting President withdraws from the race, the sitting Vice President takes his place. If Biden stays in the race, there is no process that requires him to pick Harris as a running mate.

My apologies, I was sloppy reading/answering the question. I was thinking if Biden withdraws as sitting President now (for whatever reason).

I wonder about the matter of the money that was given to Biden's re-election (not sure how that would work).

[honorentheos]

There have been too many black swans for me to make any sort of prediction, but I think Schumer’s call for Biden to step down is the most significant signal yet.

Schumer and Schiff. Rumor is Biden and Pelosi are due to talk and suspicion is it will be over the question: Can Biden actually beat Trump or is it now a foregone conclusion he can't? Like you, I can't venture to say regarding the likely results. But it seems possible now where I'd have said there was zero chance just last week.

That said, Harris getting the nod has a lot of political and pragmatic rational that make it almost a given. Campaign finances, the optics of a black-Indian woman being passed over, the task of uniting the party around a candidate at the convention...

[Res Ipsa]

As far as I know, there is no process that says that if a sitting President withdraws from the race, the sitting Vice President takes his place. If Biden stays in the race, there is no process that requires him to pick Harris as a running mate.

My apologies, I was sloppy reading/answering the question. I was thinking if Biden withdraws as sitting President now (for whatever reason).

I wonder about the matter of the money that was given to Biden's re-election (not sure how that would work).

Gotcha. Perfectly reasonable mistake.

There is some issue about the money, but I haven’t tried to figured it out. What I saw was a claim that certain funds can be accessed only if Harris is the nominee. But I have no idea if this is correct or whether there is legal work around. More money for lawyers (we always win!).

[Res Ipsa]

There have been too many black swans for me to make any sort of prediction, but I think Schumer’s call for Biden to step down is the most significant signal yet.

Schumer and Schiff. Rumor is Biden and Pelosi are due to talk and suspicion is it will be over the question: Can Biden actually beat Trump or is it now a foregone conclusion he can't? Like you, I can't venture to say regarding the likely results. But it seems possible now where I'd have said there was zero chance just last week.

That said, Harris getting the nod has a lot of political and pragmatic rational that make it almost a given. Campaign finances, the optics of a black-Indian woman being passed over, the task of uniting the party around a candidate at the convention...

Good points, but I’ve run out of givens. Who Trump getting shot and Biden getting Covid on their Bingo cards?

[honorentheos]

Schumer and Schiff. Rumor is Biden and Pelosi are due to talk and suspicion is it will be over the question: Can Biden actually beat Trump or is it now a foregone conclusion he can't? Like you, I can't venture to say regarding the likely results. But it seems possible now where I'd have said there was zero chance just last week.

That said, Harris getting the nod has a lot of political and pragmatic rational that make it almost a given. Campaign finances, the optics of a black-Indian woman being passed over, the task of uniting the party around a candidate at the convention...

Good points, but I’ve run out of givens. Who Trump getting shot and Biden getting Covid on their Bingo cards?

BREAD MAKES YOU FAT???!!!!!

Just kidding. I'm in a mood tonight I guess.

ETA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9aTMrjactg

[Res Ipsa]

Not that interested politicians (Trump or Trump camp included) - I would say that it looks really good for the American people at the moment.

Fear not, Ceeboo. If Trump wins, within the four years that follow housing prices will remain expensive and become more so, fuel costs will never dip below the low $3 mark, ill-conceived tariffs will push the cost of most goods even higher, insurance costs will continue to increase, healthcare will become even more unaffordable, and Putin will see the US end aid to Ukraine which will allow him to take that country and kill hundreds of thousands while we pretend it doesn’t matter. You may also see your federal tax obligation drop by $12 while the national debt doubles. And you will look at all of that and proclaim how much more prosperous and glorious the world is, because Trump is presiding over all of it, instead of Biden. And you will be happy.

It is telling that Ajax has already predicted that the economy will crash after Trump is elected.

[Res Ipsa]

Good points, but I’ve run out of givens. Who Trump getting shot and Biden getting Covid on their Bingo cards?

BREAD MAKES YOU FAT???!!!!!

Just kidding. I'm in a mood tonight I guess.

ETA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9aTMrjactg

LOL! I hope good moods are contagious. (My spell checker in its infinite wisdom produced “god mods.” I hope that’s an omen.