The Rise in Political Violence

[Xenophon]

Just wanted to share a fascinating (maybe best read as "terrifying") piece I just read from Reuters: "New cases of political violence roil US ahead of contentious election".

A lot of it won't be much of a surprise to anyone paying attention but it is very damning to see it all laid out in one spot so succinctly. I've certainly noticed the trend in my own life.

For some context, I've spent most of my adult life way more engaged in local politics than in national. City council, Mayor, local judges, sheriff, all have much more impact on me and mine's day-to-day so that always seemed like where I should focus my efforts. I've certainly voted nationally since I was able to, but this year marks the first time I've ever contributed to a presidential campaign, which included a Harris/Walz yard sign.

I knew I'd probably catch a little heat for putting it up, my county went ~70% for Trump in 2020, but the intensity has been what has thrown me off. Obviously, most people in the neighborhood likely don't care or at least keep their opinions to themselves. However, I've had three different folks stop me when I was working in the yard to berate me for my choice and one note (perhaps from one of the three) slipped into my mailbox with some vile language about "betraying my people" and "ruining this country". This isn't to equate my experience with some of the violence detailed in the article above, more to just highlight that the heightened state of things has some long reaching tentacles.

I don't regret the choice to put it up at all. My next door neighbor, an elderly woman who door knocked for Beto, thanked me for doing it as she didn't feel safe to do so herself. For that alone I'd do it again. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried for the future given this current political climate, regardless of election outcome. It is one thing to have a goofy guy on a message board scream about civil war into the void, it is quite another thing when the rhetoric starts to creep to your doorstep.

Apologies if this reads as very doomer... I'm just struggling today to see the light at the end of the tunnel. As long as violent voices continue to get the attention they desire for their actions, I'm not sure how we can ever cool down the narrative. And without that narrative shift I'm not sure how it ever gets better.

[ceeboo]

Hey X-Man!

I have similar concerns.

No matter who wins the election, I am pretty concerned. While I think the majority of American citizens will cast their vote, accept the results, and move on with their lives (very busy lives in many cases), I am fairly convinced that there are enough people who will not accept the results, leading to an widespread awful cocktail of anger/violence/damage.

I hope I am wrong, but I have heard/seen enough to make me pretty concerned.

For what it's worth, I support your choice to display a Harris/Walz yard sign and I think it's beyond terrible that you were berated for exercising your American freedom.

[Res Ipsa]

I think there is an asymmetry here that we overlook at our peril. Only one side has been pre-programmed to reject the results of the election if their preferred candidate loses. A frightening number of people on the right refuse to even consider the fact that Trump could lose in a free and fair election.

That’s crazy, and is due entirely to Donald Trump and his sycophants. Look at the Republican candidate for VP. His most recent position is that he would have been justified in rejecting the election because he thinks the media was unfair to Trump. That’s also crazy. Both sides complain about the media every election. Claiming that real or imagined media grievances give our elected representatives the right to simply ignore our totals should be shocking to anyone who believes in our system of government. It’s 100% insane.

The left knows the election is close and that Harris could lose. There is no equivalent on the left to the notion common on the right that a Trump loss means the election was illegitimate.

I would be shocked and disappointed to see democrats resort to violence simply because, when the votes were counted, Harris lost the election. Based on opinion polls, statements by Trump and other Republican leaders, and statements made by Trump supporters, I fully expect a frightening number of Trump supporters to react violently if he loses.

On the other hand, where I do think the left could react violently is if the right tries to steal the election again.

[dantana]

Just wanted to share a fascinating (maybe best read as "terrifying") piece I just read from Reuters: "New cases of political violence roil US ahead of contentious election".

A lot of it won't be much of a surprise to anyone paying attention but it is very damning to see it all laid out in one spot so succinctly. I've certainly noticed the trend in my own life.

For some context, I've spent most of my adult life way more engaged in local politics than in national. City council, Mayor, local judges, sheriff, all have much more impact on me and mine's day-to-day so that always seemed like where I should focus my efforts. I've certainly voted nationally since I was able to, but this year marks the first time I've ever contributed to a presidential campaign, which included a Harris/Walz yard sign.

I knew I'd probably catch a little heat for putting it up, my county went ~70% for Trump in 2020, but the intensity has been what has thrown me off. Obviously, most people in the neighborhood likely don't care or at least keep their opinions to themselves. However, I've had three different folks stop me when I was working in the yard to berate me for my choice and one note (perhaps from one of the three) slipped into my mailbox with some vile language about "betraying my people" and "ruining this country". This isn't to equate my experience with some of the violence detailed in the article above, more to just highlight that the heightened state of things has some long reaching tentacles.

I don't regret the choice to put it up at all. My next door neighbor, an elderly woman who door knocked for Beto, thanked me for doing it as she didn't feel safe to do so herself. For that alone I'd do it again. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried for the future given this current political climate, regardless of election outcome. It is one thing to have a goofy guy on a message board scream about civil war into the void, it is quite another thing when the rhetoric starts to creep to your doorstep.

Apologies if this reads as very doomer... I'm just struggling today to see the light at the end of the tunnel. As long as violent voices continue to get the attention they desire for their actions, I'm not sure how we can ever cool down the narrative. And without that narrative shift I'm not sure how it ever gets better.

Thank you for your service X. I've been thinking I need to do my part in this battle against the orange scourge but, I just don't have the Palmers (Arnold) to put a sign up in my yard. Good on you!

[Xenophon]

If it came across that I thought it was probable the left might react violently to a loss in a few weeks, then that was bad writing on my part. Outside of some isolated instances that just doesn't seem likely to me. Res, you rightly nail the dichotomy between the parties on current election denying and the ramification that holds. When I say that I worry "regardless of outcome" I mean that I could see both a "Jan 6 turned up to 11" scenario and also could see issues with people feeling emboldened by a Trump win. If someone is willing to leave me a disturbing note now, how might it go if they feel "their side" has a mandate? And more importantly, how is that amplified against people with way less privilege than me?

That isn't to discount any examples of violence on the left, I thought my linked article did a nice job of making sure we aren't blind to those instances and even those that are less connected with standard American let/right and just generic us vs. them topics. Assuming we weather the coming months okay I do think introspection will still be required to ensure we're all doing what we can to try to avoid the othering.

[Xenophon]

For what it's worth, I support your choice to display a Harris/Walz yard sign and I think it's beyond terrible that you were berated for exercising your American freedom.

Hey ceebs, thanks for the above. It is a bit tragic that it even has to be said.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I think conservatives saw the BLM riots and something primal was set in motion. Ref political violence and setting out Harris signs, I was pleasantly surprised to see ~6 Harris signs on our stroll today. We’re balking at posting a sign because we got to know some of the Trumpers in this neighborhood and they’re pretty intense, one of them is our neighbor, and I don’t trust his impulse control.

Whatever the case may be, had we not had Trump and his crazy rhetoric I think we’d still be enjoying the relative civility we were used to. I dunno if the diaper-clad genie can be put back in the bottle, unfortunately.

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

I stumbled upon this interesting paper on political polarization and violence. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/ ... ys?lang=en

It is long, but well worth reading. It divides polarization into two types: ideological polarization and affective polarization. The latter is the emotion driven dislike or disgust felt by members of one group against the other.

There are some conclusions that surprised me. One is that the folks who are least attached to democracy and most likely to prefer authoritarianism are not those at the ideological extremes — it is the centrists (people who subscribe to views from the left and the right — that are least attached to democracy.

Another was that the most significant predictor of political violence was the perpetrator’s aggressive personality or lack of self control. In fact there is very little correlation between ideological or affective polarization and political violence. The one exception is very relevant to our current situation: when one side becomes convinced that the other side will abuse its power to exclude the other from the political process. The way you get a J6 is to convince folks that the other side won an election by cheating.

Another surprising conclusion is that social media has not been significantly responsible for increased polarization in the US. Rather, it is traditional media (including television) that is more responsible.

A couple of conclusions that are not so surprising: polarization is driven by the political elites and not by us regular folks. And affective polarization is largely based by serious misunderstanding about who the other group is and what they actually believe.

So, our problem is not so much the degree of polarization, but that our system rewards politicians for creating and weaponizing polarization. That suggests a need to structure the system in a way that discourages fanning the flames as a tactic. And, the monopolized folks in the center are so sick of the dysfunction caused by polarization that they are ready to chuck the American experiment.

[ajax18]

I think there is an asymmetry here that we overlook at our peril. Only one side has been pre-programmed to reject the results of the election if their preferred candidate loses. A frightening number of people on the right refuse to even consider the fact that Trump could lose in a free and fair election.

That’s crazy, and is due entirely to Donald Trump and his sycophants. Look at the Republican candidate for VP. His most recent position is that he would have been justified in rejecting the election because he thinks the media was unfair to Trump. That’s also crazy. Both sides complain about the media every election. Claiming that real or imagined media grievances give our elected representatives the right to simply ignore our totals should be shocking to anyone who believes in our system of government. It’s 100% insane.

The left knows the election is close and that Harris could lose. There is no equivalent on the left to the notion common on the right that a Trump loss means the election was illegitimate.

I would be shocked and disappointed to see democrats resort to violence simply because, when the votes were counted, Harris lost the election. Based on opinion polls, statements by Trump and other Republican leaders, and statements made by Trump supporters, I fully expect a frightening number of Trump supporters to react violently if he loses.

On the other hand, where I do think the left could react violently is if the right tries to steal the election again.

It'd be worth it to me for Trump to win just to see and document whether the left accepts the results of the election or not. On second thought, did the left ever accept the 2016 election? If Trump wins in 2024 they'll simply weaponize the DOJ to bankrupt/jail Trump and his supporters like they did in 2017. They'd react no different than after George Floyd, Ferguson, MO, Chaz, or any other time they sense weakness and see a chance to burn and loot.

As for me the visiting high priest put a Trump/Vance sticker on his truck and my Latino brethren cheered me on for it. We love each other and are one in Christ. It turns out we all hate socialism, think COVID was a scam, want to see the border enforced, are astonished at the foolishness of the $36 million biomass plant that sits rusting because it cost less to shut it down, and don't want to let the left trans our kids. I love speaking their language and appreciating their culture and they have never asked their pale face brother for a single Bidenflated dollar. I've never heard one hint of them seeing me as privileged or owing them anything. They work 6 day weeks like me and we enjoy Sundays together supporting each other spiritually. No matter what happens in this election or even in this world, we'll be fine because we're a Zion people and I love them.

[ceeboo]

Hey Res

Only one side has been pre-programmed to reject the results of the election if their preferred candidate loses.

Only one side? I thought this was how both sides play politics.

montage of Democrats objecting to 2016 election
https://youtu.be/umsAhEFHFKA?si=IhjvtzvDvwt6lwLB

The left knows the election is close and that Harris could lose. There is no equivalent on the left to the notion common on the right that a Trump loss means the election was illegitimate.

Only the political right speaks about illegitimacy? I thought this was how both sides play politics.

FLASHBACK: Hillary Clinton repeatedly called Trump 'illegitimate' president

https://youtu.be/iO-Sw8CCxxY?si=bhfDsnhWSb2wFDKp