Predictions - 2024 Election

[Jersey Girl]

I'm going with Prof. Lichtman's prediction. Harris/Walz and staying away from the polls.

So be it.

[Some Schmo]

This election comes down to whether the majority of Americans are smart or dumb. I'm not optimistic.

I will say, the gender gap could be the difference, with men too lazy to get off their asses to vote and women pissed about the proposed GOP nanny state. Women are more reliable voters than man are.

This election isn't about issues, it's about enthusiasm and turnout. If it were about issues, Trump wouldn't have a chance.

[ajax18]

It’s really Hard election to predict, and I don’t envy either the non partisan polling outfit or the poll aggregators. Microtargeting has gotten crazy specific, and I’m not sure pollsters can tell whether or not their sampling adequately captures the markets that the campaigns are targeting. Likewise, how can a pollster construct a likely voter screen when they aren’t sure who the campaigns are targeting.

I saw an interview with Trump’s campaign managers a few months ago — before Biden dropped out. They aren’t stupid. They know that Trump has a pretty hard ceiling at 46-47% with his base motivated to vote. So they knew that had to get a chunk of votes from outside his base. in my opinion, that’s a tough job with such a polarizing candidate. So, in what will likely be praised as genius or combined as lunacy (depending on the result), the campaign microtargeted demographic groups of low propensity voters, particularly young, black men. Get enough of those people who don’t usually vote to vote for Trump, and you have the needed extra voters.

I think that Biden withdrawing from the race may have undercut the young black man part of the strategy. When Obama ran, blacks folks who didn’t usually vote turned up at the polls. Will Harris’s candidacy have a similar effect. Perhaps that reduces the pool of young, black male voters available for Trump to pick up.

Both candidates used non-traditional media sources to try and pick up voters. If that’s effective at reaching lower propensity voters, the pollsters will learn it when we do.

I’ve been looking for trends in late breaking voters. Harris seems to have a pretty big edge there. I’m also looking at the “closing arguments.” One campaign is upbeat, optimistic, and has more universalist messages. The other is highly negative and just can’t seem to avoid alienating voters that it likely needs to win. All in all, I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

I'd rather be Harris than Trump to. If Trump loses, he'll spend the rest of his life broke and in prison. This will embolden Democrats such that weaponization of the justice department against conservatives will become the norm along with censorship and suspension of the first amendment. If Harris wins democracy is over. It will be our last election.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I'd rather be Harris than Trump to. If Trump loses, he'll spend the rest of his life broke and in prison. This will embolden Democrats such that weaponization of the justice department against conservatives will become the norm along with censorship and suspension of the first amendment. If Harris wins democracy is over. It will be our last election.

You’re sucha damned clown who projects your MAGA nonsense onto others.

[ceeboo]

With about two weeks left, what are your predictions?

Mine: Trump wins the electoral college fairly easily (300 plus) and Trump, for the first time in a long time, wins the national majority vote (by a fairly slim margin)

Your predictions?

Given that almost two weeks gave passed since I started this thread, and that election day is now approaching very soon, I wanted to give everyone a chance to modify/change their predictions if they wanted to.

I am staying with my original predictions.

[honorentheos]

Polls and election models still show the election could go either way. An electoral blow out for Trump would require he win six of the seven swing states or a surprise in another state. That means Trump would need to take Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Michigan. It's possible.

It's also possible Georgia could go for Harris if unlikely, in my opinion.

In the bigger picture sense, I think this election is unpredictable in the literal meaning of the word. Anyone who ends up being right may feel they were reading the matrix but that's a bias thought process.

[yellowstone123]

With about two weeks left, what are your predictions?

Mine: Trump wins the electoral college fairly easily (300 plus) and Trump, for the first time in a long time, wins the national majority vote (by a fairly slim margin)

Your predictions?

Given that almost two weeks gave passed since I started this thread, and that election day is now approaching very soon, I wanted to give everyone a chance to modify/change their predictions if they wanted to.

I am staying with my original predictions.

Thanks Ceeboo for your posts. I like reading them.

I think Harris will win. I think the woman's vote will give her the certain states she needs for her to be sworn in as the next President.

I really do wish who ever holds that mantel well. Many times it seems there is some higher source of strength and power looking out for certain people when certain events are about to unfold. I think it was true of Washington, Lincoln and maybe now for Harris

It's sort of interesting to me that when certain people were calling Trump Hitler, that the new Hitlers were appearing on the horizon. They don't wear a short mustache, but they do have nuclear weapons. Certain magazines put Trump on the their cover with a short mustache, but it was Russia who invaded the Ukraine like the real Nazi Germany did with Czechoslovakia.

Now Russia is giving North Korea some nuclear and ICBM information and North Korean troops are now on the Ukraine and Russian border reading to fight for Russia. With in the last few days North Korea tested one of their ICBMs. China needs high speed chips for their economy and emerging A.I.. A person I follow on Substack believes they will invade Taiwan soon to get them, but I think they will collaborate with Russia to build them or have been doing so since the USA started throwing up roadblocks to the Asian country a couple years ago.

I actually don't wish the next four years on anyone who becomes the President of the United States. God bless that person whoever that may be.

[Brack]

Given that almost two weeks gave passed since I started this thread, and that election day is now approaching very soon, I wanted to give everyone a chance to modify/change their predictions if they wanted to.

I am staying with my original predictions.

Rustbelt States:
MI - Harris
WI - Harris
PA - Harris

Sunbelt States:
AZ - Trump
GA - Trump
NC - Trump
NV - Trump

[Brack]

And I predict that Harris will win the national popular vote somewhere between 0.5% and 2%.

[ceeboo]

Hey Y-Stone,

Given that almost two weeks gave passed since I started this thread, and that election day is now approaching very soon, I wanted to give everyone a chance to modify/change their predictions if they wanted to.

I am staying with my original predictions.

Thanks Ceeboo for your posts. I like reading them.

Thanks for the kind words - And thanks for the thread contribution.

I think Harris will win.

Possible (obviously) - But I don't think so.

I really do wish who ever holds that mantel well.

So do I.

My youngest (The real "Ceeboo" - our 22-year-old son who was given that nickname as a baby by his mother) was just expressing some concern over the election. I told him that all he can do is cast his individual vote and allow others the same freedom to express theirs. I told him that no matter who ends up winning, he ought to consider pulling for them and recognize that the winner will be the President for all of us.

It's sort of interesting to me that when certain people were calling Trump Hitler, that the new Hitlers were appearing on the horizon. They don't wear a short mustache, but they do have nuclear weapons. Certain magazines put Trump on the their cover with a short mustache

Unfortunately, I remember that magazine cover. Just as unfortunate in my opinion, this type of intentional dehumanizing rhetoric (hatred/fear selling) continues on mainstream media. People are tuning in because they can't seem to get enough - so, as long as people keep tuning in, it will continue (just like it does on this discussion board).

I actually don't wish the next four years on anyone who becomes the President of the United States. God bless them who ever it may be.

God bless he/she indeed.