What Now

[Res Ipsa]

If you’re looking for a bright idea about where to go from here now that the tyranny of the majority (a phrase that will disappear from MAGA vocabulary until they find themselves on the wrong end of a vote) has sentenced all to live in Trumpland, I am sorry to disappoint you. I got nothing.

Well, I have something, but it’s not something I’m going to try and sell to anyone but myself. Despite my best efforts to the contrary, I cannot escape the conclusion that our civilization is terminal. I think that where we are right now is a living solution to the Fermi paradox. We are changing the world so fast that traits that were adaptive in the past are now maladaptive. And we can’t fix that because evolution takes time and we simply don’t have time for evolution to make us adaptive to the world in which we find ourselves.

Climate change sets us a hard deadline, although we can’t identify it exactly. The surface temperature is hotter now than at any time since human civilization developed. Our entire modern civilization was founded and developed during a period of stable climate — stability that we’ve now shattered.

That places our brains in unknown territory. The notion that we could destroy our civilization by just going about living our daily lives is a risk we’re not equipped to deal with in a rational manner. We don’t want to believe it. It requires us to put aside all the cognitive biases that we evolved to help us function in a very different world. Solving the problem requires us to put aside the in group cooperation/out group competition strategy that has served us for thousands of years and think of ourselves as belonging to a single global tribe. But we just aren’t wired for that.

What brought this home for me is the sheer number of people who are convinced that the US is in the midst of a crime wave when, by any objective measure, that’s 100% false. What that says to me is that what science has learned about how the brain works, our cognitive biases, and human psychology have been weaponized against us by smart people who know how easily our reasoning is hijacked. But our brains don’t want to believe that we can be manipulated like that. To do so, I’m guessing, would cripple us in terms of making quick, life or death decisions. Doubting our perceptions when we think we see evidence of a lion would turn us into a tasty meal. Too much uncertainty and doubt might have been fatal 100,000 years ago.

So, our brains tell ourselves that we perceive the world accurately and that anyone who sees it differently is wrong. We’re right because we just are. And anyone who disagrees must be defective in some way. But that’s false consciousness. We may need that confidence to stay sane, but it’s dooming us now.

Propaganda works. At least we think it works on the other guy. We can see it working. But we all think that we have some superpower that helps us cut through all the crap. But that’s false consciousness. It is very hard for an individual to set aside their cognitive biases and reason their way to a good answer. In fact, I don’t think it’s possible alone. Getting to a good answer is a team project. And the team has to view reasoning as a group project that requires each member to call BS on bad thinking and to respond without offense to having BS called on them. It requires a mutual trust in each other to do the best they can to problem solve and get to the best answer possible.

We can do that if we work hard at it, but we’re not wired for it. It requires not only acting in good faith but also presuming that others are also acting in good faith. That’s hard, even among like minded folks.

In the US, We have two huge political tribes at war with one another. Resolving differences generally requires starting from some common ground. But our tribes live in such different information ecosystems that finding common ground often feels impossible. We’re in the post-modern swamp where any claim can be a fact because I say it is. Everything is stories, with no grounding in any agreed facts. Conservatives who recoil in horror at the thought of postmodernism are actually trapped in it like everyone else.

How do we navigate through this postmodern morass? Just the way I said. The foundation is trust. And, sadly, there is money to be made and elections to be won by getting us to distrust each other. It’s not a shadowy conspiracy. It’s people with lots of money doing what comes naturally — making more money.

So, our scientific knowledge and technology have given us ways to create false worlds for each other. Social media algorithms are designed to get us to buy stuff. Gun manufacturers manipulate our fears in a way that gets us to buy stuff we don’t need. And campaigns microtarget specific demographics with advertising designed to make us angry and fearful. There are no problems, only crises.

There is a clip circulating of a student at ASU saying that she voted for Trump because he would not pass a national abortion bill. How did the guy that killed the constitutional right to an abortion become a protector of abortion rights? The answer is in survey results that showed a significant chunk of people think that Biden was responsible for the loss of the right to an abortion. You can almost imagine how this works: microtarget R women who are pro choice. Tell them that Roe was reversed on Biden’s watch and that Trump will leave the question to the states. Technically true, but leaves out the fact that Trump intentionally selected judges who would overturn Roe. And if your brain is predisposed to like Trump, that’s good enough.

So, how do we solve the climate problem before the bottom drops out? I don’t think we can. Getting people to recognize how easily we are fooled and how fragile our reasoning abilities are is a near impossible task. Our sense of being confidently right is just too strong. Building the necessary relationship based on trust takes time. If I can’t do that with Ajax or Ceeboo, how can I possibly do that with someone in Iran or Israel or Palestine or China or Burma or Uganda.

Evolution just didn’t equip us for that.

So, if human civilization is terminal, what is a poor sentient bit of carbon to do? What’s the point? And I think this is where atheism gives me a way forward. Like every other atheist, I’ve had to wrestle with “if death is permanent, life has no meaning.” I think most get to a similar place: we all give life its meaning. We all do it in basically the same way, even if some of us experience it as coming from an external source. We create the meaning.

The death of our civilization doesn’t change that. Everyone dies. Everything dies. Civilizations are borne and eventually die. That they have a finite lifetime doesn’t render them without meaning. Our civilization is terminal and that’s okay.

So, what should the sentient bit of carbon named Res Ipsa do in a terminal civilization? I think something like hospice care. I don’t think that civilization will go gently into that good night. I’m guessing it will be a slow and painful death. People are suffering and that will only get worse. So, my answer is to reduce suffering anywhere I can. Stop worrying about things I can never hope to change and do my own personal harm reduction where I can find the opportunity to do so. And, if I pay attention, there are all kinds of opportunities.

And if it turns out that Civilization is more resilient than I thought, the downside is that I will have given my life meaning through the interaction I have with others. And that’s enough for me.

Which is my long winded way of saying so long and thanks for all the fish. I can’t be a hospice worker hanging around the internet. I’ve got to get out of my head and start paying more attention to real life. Otherwise, I just miss stuff.

I suspect I’ll drop in from time to time to see how everyone’s doing. But I’ve asked to be released from my calling so I won’t have any duties here.

Being here has helped me think through lots of tough stuff that I’ve never expressly talked about. And every one of you that I’ve interacted with has been a part of that. I don’t think that there is anyone I’ve chatted or argued with that hasn’t changed me in some way for the good. So, thanks for that.

Some of you know where to find me. For those that don’t, you can e-mail me through the system. I’m not cancelling my account or anything.

And, as Shades says, see you tomorrow.

RI

[Some Schmo]

I appreciate the optimistic tone of the post, even while I relate to the hopelessness of our current situation. My problem is that I have no realistic hope for optimism. My view of humanity is completely shattered, and I think we are doomed. We, as humans, are way too petty and stupid to survive much longer. Human selfishness, and the ignoring of it, will kill us all.

My only regret is having a daughter that has to suffer through the idiocy that humanity currently constitutes.

[Dr. Shades]

My problem is that I have no realistic hope for optimism. My view of humanity is completely shattered, and I think we are doomed. We, as humans, are way too petty and stupid to survive much longer. Human selfishness, and the ignoring of it, will kill us all.

America is a farm, and we are someone else's property.

The sooner you make peace with that fact, the happier you'll be.

[Moksha]

I think that where we are right now is a living solution to the Fermi paradox.

So Trump signals the extermination event (or perhaps devolution) before we achieve space travel?

How does that stack up against Shades' theory that we live on Animal Farm?

[Chap]

My problem is that I have no realistic hope for optimism. My view of humanity is completely shattered, and I think we are doomed. We, as humans, are way too petty and stupid to survive much longer. Human selfishness, and the ignoring of it, will kill us all.

America is a farm, and we are someone else's property.

The sooner you make peace with that fact, the happier you'll be.

Could you just clarify that, please? Two questions:

(a) Assuming most ordinary Americans are the animals, who is/are the farmer or farmers who own them?
(b) Is the extremely rich Mr Trump one of the farmers?

[Hound of Heaven]

If you’re looking for a bright idea about where to go from here now that the tyranny of the majority (a phrase that will disappear from MAGA vocabulary until they find themselves on the wrong end of a vote) has sentenced all to live in Trumpland, I am sorry to disappoint you. I got nothing.

Well, I have something, but it’s not something I’m going to try and sell to anyone but myself. Despite my best efforts to the contrary, I cannot escape the conclusion that our civilization is terminal. I think that where we are right now is a living solution to the Fermi paradox. We are changing the world so fast that traits that were adaptive in the past are now maladaptive. And we can’t fix that because evolution takes time and we simply don’t have time for evolution to make us adaptive to the world in which we find ourselves.

Climate change sets us a hard deadline, although we can’t identify it exactly. The surface temperature is hotter now than at any time since human civilization developed. Our entire modern civilization was founded and developed during a period of stable climate — stability that we’ve now shattered.

That places our brains in unknown territory. The notion that we could destroy our civilization by just going about living our daily lives is a risk we’re not equipped to deal with in a rational manner. We don’t want to believe it. It requires us to put aside all the cognitive biases that we evolved to help us function in a very different world. Solving the problem requires us to put aside the in group cooperation/out group competition strategy that has served us for thousands of years and think of ourselves as belonging to a single global tribe. But we just aren’t wired for that.

What brought this home for me is the sheer number of people who are convinced that the US is in the midst of a crime wave when, by any objective measure, that’s 100% false. What that says to me is that what science has learned about how the brain works, our cognitive biases, and human psychology have been weaponized against us by smart people who know how easily our reasoning is hijacked. But our brains don’t want to believe that we can be manipulated like that. To do so, I’m guessing, would cripple us in terms of making quick, life or death decisions. Doubting our perceptions when we think we see evidence of a lion would turn us into a tasty meal. Too much uncertainty and doubt might have been fatal 100,000 years ago.

So, our brains tell ourselves that we perceive the world accurately and that anyone who sees it differently is wrong. We’re right because we just are. And anyone who disagrees must be defective in some way. But that’s false consciousness. We may need that confidence to stay sane, but it’s dooming us now.

Propaganda works. At least we think it works on the other guy. We can see it working. But we all think that we have some superpower that helps us cut through all the crap. But that’s false consciousness. It is very hard for an individual to set aside their cognitive biases and reason their way to a good answer. In fact, I don’t think it’s possible alone. Getting to a good answer is a team project. And the team has to view reasoning as a group project that requires each member to call BS on bad thinking and to respond without offense to having BS called on them. It requires a mutual trust in each other to do the best they can to problem solve and get to the best answer possible.

We can do that if we work hard at it, but we’re not wired for it. It requires not only acting in good faith but also presuming that others are also acting in good faith. That’s hard, even among like minded folks.

In the US, We have two huge political tribes at war with one another. Resolving differences generally requires starting from some common ground. But our tribes live in such different information ecosystems that finding common ground often feels impossible. We’re in the post-modern swamp where any claim can be a fact because I say it is. Everything is stories, with no grounding in any agreed facts. Conservatives who recoil in horror at the thought of postmodernism are actually trapped in it like everyone else.

How do we navigate through this postmodern morass? Just the way I said. The foundation is trust. And, sadly, there is money to be made and elections to be won by getting us to distrust each other. It’s not a shadowy conspiracy. It’s people with lots of money doing what comes naturally — making more money.

So, our scientific knowledge and technology have given us ways to create false worlds for each other. Social media algorithms are designed to get us to buy stuff. Gun manufacturers manipulate our fears in a way that gets us to buy stuff we don’t need. And campaigns microtarget specific demographics with advertising designed to make us angry and fearful. There are no problems, only crises.

There is a clip circulating of a student at ASU saying that she voted for Trump because he would not pass a national abortion bill. How did the guy that killed the constitutional right to an abortion become a protector of abortion rights? The answer is in survey results that showed a significant chunk of people think that Biden was responsible for the loss of the right to an abortion. You can almost imagine how this works: microtarget R women who are pro choice. Tell them that Roe was reversed on Biden’s watch and that Trump will leave the question to the states. Technically true, but leaves out the fact that Trump intentionally selected judges who would overturn Roe. And if your brain is predisposed to like Trump, that’s good enough.

So, how do we solve the climate problem before the bottom drops out? I don’t think we can. Getting people to recognize how easily we are fooled and how fragile our reasoning abilities are is a near impossible task. Our sense of being confidently right is just too strong. Building the necessary relationship based on trust takes time. If I can’t do that with Ajax or Ceeboo, how can I possibly do that with someone in Iran or Israel or Palestine or China or Burma or Uganda.

Evolution just didn’t equip us for that.

So, if human civilization is terminal, what is a poor sentient bit of carbon to do? What’s the point? And I think this is where atheism gives me a way forward. Like every other atheist, I’ve had to wrestle with “if death is permanent, life has no meaning.” I think most get to a similar place: we all give life its meaning. We all do it in basically the same way, even if some of us experience it as coming from an external source. We create the meaning.

The death of our civilization doesn’t change that. Everyone dies. Everything dies. Civilizations are borne and eventually die. That they have a finite lifetime doesn’t render them without meaning. Our civilization is terminal and that’s okay.

So, what should the sentient bit of carbon named Res Ipsa do in a terminal civilization? I think something like hospice care. I don’t think that civilization will go gently into that good night. I’m guessing it will be a slow and painful death. People are suffering and that will only get worse. So, my answer is to reduce suffering anywhere I can. Stop worrying about things I can never hope to change and do my own personal harm reduction where I can find the opportunity to do so. And, if I pay attention, there are all kinds of opportunities.

And if it turns out that Civilization is more resilient than I thought, the downside is that I will have given my life meaning through the interaction I have with others. And that’s enough for me.

Which is my long winded way of saying so long and thanks for all the fish. I can’t be a hospice worker hanging around the internet. I’ve got to get out of my head and start paying more attention to real life. Otherwise, I just miss stuff.

I suspect I’ll drop in from time to time to see how everyone’s doing. But I’ve asked to be released from my calling so I won’t have any duties here.

Being here has helped me think through lots of tough stuff that I’ve never expressly talked about. And every one of you that I’ve interacted with has been a part of that. I don’t think that there is anyone I’ve chatted or argued with that hasn’t changed me in some way for the good. So, thanks for that.

Some of you know where to find me. For those that don’t, you can e-mail me through the system. I’m not cancelling my account or anything.

And, as Shades says, see you tomorrow.

RI

This post lacks positivity and motivation. Your post serves as a glimpse into the absurdities of Progressivism. The narrative unfolds as a chaotic tapestry of despair and negativity throughout. The perspective you hold is the reason we did not win the election. It may be challenging to accept, as many individuals tend to hold their beliefs as the most valid. However, it could be beneficial to revisit your post multiple times until you recognize that it lacks any sense of hope or positivity. The future looks promising for the Democratic Party, provided we acknowledge that the 12% progressive faction is the extreme fringe and address them accordingly. The more I observe left-leaning news programs since the election, the more optimistic I become that fellow Democrats are beginning to recognize the necessity of addressing the extreme fringe within our party. Here are some uplifting facts for you. For years, we managed to regulate the majority of the information that our fellow citizens consumed via television and computers. We mistakenly believed that Fox News represented the opposition and that they were the entity we needed to contend with. That was an error, as alternative news sources like podcasts, YouTube, and other formats have surpassed mainstream media as the primary means through which people obtain information. The positive aspect of alternative news is that we are not limited to a few news sources; we have the opportunity to create a coalition of liberal entertainers to rival conservative podcasts and YouTubers. The primary focus of any political party must consistently be to prevent individuals from gravitating towards the most extreme edges within the party. When a political party permits the most extreme voices within its ranks to overshadow the majority, negative consequences arise, such as enabling a self-serving billionaire to secure the presidency, the Senate, and Congress. Republicans are not Nazis, racists, or any other extreme label that progressives have conjured up in hopes of swaying votes. It was entirely false! The mainstream media can no longer sell those absurd lies to the American public; they are being fact-checked by alternative sources. The encouraging aspect of what I just described is that we now understand the importance of combating the Republicans with ideas and positivity, rather than ignorance, in the hope that voters will be motivated by fear to choose Democrats. If we mature and cease our efforts to satisfy the progressives, we can effectively compete with alternative media and potentially challenge the Republicans. I have a lot to express regarding the importance of returning to our roots as a party focused on hope and change. However, I'll conclude with this thought: the future is indeed bright. You have the sole authority to decide whom you engage with each day. Engaging with individuals who possess a defeatist attitude or those who are so unaware that they cannot restrain their words, whether online or in person, can erode the positivity within you. I have decided not to engage with particular posters on this board. There are long-time posters here whom I will never acknowledge as existing. Yesterday, one of the posters I have chosen to ignore referred to Americans as retarded and then labeled a board member a "damned unapologetic racist moron." Engaging in conversation with someone unable to manage their anger will ultimately have a detrimental impact on you. Unfortunately, individuals who behave in this manner can be located on the far edges of both the Republican and Democratic parties. Allowing negativity to dictate the agenda of a political party during a presidential campaign will inevitably lead to unfavorable outcomes. You have just observed that unfold in real time. I recommend that from this day onward, you make an effort to recognize that the positivity receptors in your brain require daily exercise. If not, other less favorable receptors in your brain will step in and dominate, leading you to experience a sense of despair and negativity. Fortunately, you have the power to decide your actions from this point onward. You have the option to persuade yourself that the reality you perceive is the sole existence, or you can forge a pathway to a new reality by recognizing that you hold the power over which aspects of your mind dictate the agenda and emotional tone of your life each day. Wishing you all the best and a safe journey ahead.

[ceeboo]

Be well friend - take care of you and yours - hope to see you when you pop in from time to time.

Love you!

[Morley]

Which is my long winded way of saying so long and thanks for all the fish.

[and]

But I’ve asked to be released from my calling so I won’t have any duties here.

Sad day, indeed.

[huckelberry]

Which is my long winded way of saying so long and thanks for all the fish.

[and]

But I’ve asked to be released from my calling so I won’t have any duties here.

Sad day, indeed.

Res Ipsa, agreeing with Morley here I would like to add that your efforts to grapple with internal issues here helps others of us here to do the same. I hope you can find a better balance between other activities and some participation here. This place too can be hospice care, or preparation for future renewal and growth.

[Gadianton]

Hopefully you'll be back soon Res, even if not in a mod capacity. Thanks for all the posts, you're one of the best.

So, how do we solve the climate problem before the bottom drops out? I don’t think we can. Getting people to recognize how easily we are fooled and how fragile our reasoning abilities are is a near impossible task. Our sense of being confidently right is just too strong. Building the necessary relationship based on trust takes time. If I can’t do that with Ajax or Ceeboo, how can I possibly do that with someone in Iran or Israel or Palestine or China or Burma or Uganda.

Evolution just didn’t equip us for that.

If you happen to still be lurking, see my recent post here for more details on what I have in mind:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=159314

Something I had in mind as I wrote that post, but did not mention in the post, was h's post on another thread from a few months ago. He wrote this about your concerns:

I work in an industry where no one has time for climate change denial. We've moved on as the window to act has closed on preventing effects and we are now acting to mitigate and adapt to those effects while working to prevent the worst outcomes if no action is taken.

Last week I was in a discussion with folks from around the US discussing the outcomes of a recent series of awards from the Climate Pollution Reduction Grant where somewhere around 75% of the successful applications were blue states, counties, or other organizations compared to red states and entities under red state government. And the general reason why came down to two things:

First, folks who take it serious and have viable programs or projects seeking funding were more likely to win funding and those tended to be proposed by blue states and other traditionally progressive government bodies. The ark can't be built while the rain falls.

Second, entities whose leadership politicize the issue are more likely to give the money back if Trump wins in November as a political statement. So in order to ensure the funding creates the other impacts needed the money mostly avoided climate skeptical states who would rather score points than take seriously to act to address a problem that is at a scale folks don't immediately comprehend easily.
....
My guess is Ceeboo has no personal reason to take it seriously and human nature makes the attempt to change his mind almost impossible.

Honor makes the same point you do, that evolution hasn't endowed our minds in aggregate with the ability to make good choices when it comes to large scale projects. If we're waiting for democracy to vote in rational policies to save humanity in the post-late capitalism, you'll be waiting forever. According to H, there is positive movement despite the ignorance of the voting public.

A summary of what I think my happen: a full-frontal press by Trump, his senate, his congress, and his supreme court to destroy reproductive rights, the EPA and whatever, would essentially put blue states in a position where there is no choice but to refuse to follow federal laws. This could brew to the point where blue states figure out a way to defund the federal government; since blue states subsidize red states, that otherwise tax money could be diverted to inter-state concerns such as climate change. The thing is, this seems to need to happen; even if we win the next election, we only win it by appealing to the entertainment centers of the public's brains, so that we can sneak in progress without them being aware of what we're doing, and with the risk that the next election will undo it all. Democracy was never built to take us into a dying-earth future with large scale projects that require hundred-year planning cycles. Democracy was good for preventing any one faction from gaining too much power as capitalism drives technological progress. But once inequality drives the people to madness, we've got to move forward despite the will of the people.