The Real Reason why Trump won

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Gunnar
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Re: ~

Post by Gunnar »

ceeboo wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2024 4:33 pm
Gunnar wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2024 11:04 am
I too! I can't see any good reason why almost 20 million people who voted in the last general election declined to vote in this one. Perhaps many were discouraged by long waits in line because of the dearth of legal voting locations imposed by conservative legislators in most areas that had a majority of registered Democrats and minorities, and legislation severely restricting the use of mail-in or absentee voting.
My understanding is that they are still counting votes from a few Western states and the projected final totals will look something approaching this: Trump 76-77 million and Harris 74-75 million - Totaling approximately 150-152 million votes (2020's total was 155 million) - So I'm not sure how much "low voter turnout" is in play here.

Anyway, that's my understanding.
Maybe you're right that when all the ballot counting is finished there might not have been as big a drop in voter turnout as I originally thought, but it still seems that there was a significant drop.

I wish that the Kamala and her campaign had been more successful in pointing the reality that the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, despite Trump's blatant lies to the contrary. Inflation has declined substantially, unemployment is the lowest it has been for decades and numerous other economic indicators are very favorable. It is unfortunate how effectively conservatives have been able to con so many Americans into believing otherwise! Besides that, the immigration problem would have been substantially improved had Trump not ordered craven Republicans to stop already agreed upon improvements to the border security situation solely for the selfish reason that he didn't want anything good to happen that he could not take sole or primary credit for. Why you or any otherwise seemingly rational and articulate person ever supported so reprehensible a person as Trump, let alone still supports him is beyond my understanding!
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Moksha
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Post by Moksha »

Gunnar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:31 am
Maybe you're right that when all the ballot counting is finished there might not have been as big a drop in voter turnout as I originally thought, but it still seems there was a significant drop.
So why did the Democrats fail to rig the voting this time?

Can Trump pardon Fox and NewsMax in their Voting Machines and Software slander lawsuits (and Marjorie Taylor Greene for her latest slander)?

Do the leaders of the Proud Boys and the Oathkeepers finally get their Presidential Medals of Freedom?
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Gunnar
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Re: ~

Post by Gunnar »

Moksha wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:25 am
Gunnar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:31 am
Maybe you're right that when all the ballot counting is finished there might not have been as big a drop in voter turnout as I originally thought, but it still seems there was a significant drop.
So why did the Democrats fail to rig the voting this time?
Like they did last time you mean? :roll: :roll: I realize, of course, that your implication that they did last time was "tongue in cheek." I think we both know that if Kamala had won (especially had she won by a large margin), Trump and his sycophants would be screaming endlessly about the election being stolen - again!
Can Trump pardon Fox and NewsMax in their Voting Machines and Software slander lawsuits?
I hope not! They fully deserve to be punished for their slander.
Do the leaders of the Proud Boys and the Oathkeepers finally get their Presidential Medal of Freedom?
Again, I hope not, but I would not be terribly surprised if Trump gave it to them.
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Brack
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

Post by Brack »

Turnout isn't the reason why Trump won with Harris having lost. Out of the seven battleground states, turnout was higher in at least three of these states from 2020. And Harris received more votes than Biden in the states of Wisconsin and Georgia.
Last edited by Brack on Fri Nov 15, 2024 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bret Ripley
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Re: ~

Post by Bret Ripley »

Gunnar wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:31 am
I wish that the Kamala and her campaign had been more successful in pointing the reality that the U.S. economy is one of the strongest in the world, despite Trump's blatant lies to the contrary. Inflation has declined substantially, unemployment is the lowest it has been for decades and numerous other economic indicators are very favorable. It is unfortunate how effectively conservatives have been able to con so many Americans into believing otherwise!
By any objective measure, the US economy *in aggregate* is doing quite well. However, economic *inequality* has continued to grow. While the economy may be great for those who can afford to play, it's a lousy spectator sport.

When voters cite the economy as a reason to vote for a change, they are probably talking about their personal economic situations -- not the big picture. The idea that Trump/Vance will do anything significant to improve economic equality is, I'm afraid, the saddest of fever-dreams. Neither would Harris/Walz, most likely, but at least they aren't bat-crap crazy. Hopefully, we'll see a big swing away from the excesses of Trumpism in the House and Senate in 2026.
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Re: ~

Post by Gunnar »

Bret Ripley wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:24 pm
When voters cite the economy as a reason to vote for a change, they are probably talking about their personal economic situations -- not the big picture. The idea that Trump/Vance will do anything significant to improve economic equality is, I'm afraid, the saddest of fever-dreams. Neither would Harris/Walz, most likely, but at least they aren't bat-crap crazy. Hopefully, we'll see a big swing away from the excesses of Trumpism in the House and Senate in 2026.
I'm hopeful about that too, but it seems pretty certain that Trump and his minions will double down and triple down on delegitimizing and removing from the election rolls as many voters as they can whom they view as unlikely to vote Republican, with a view to permanently making it virtually impossible for conservatives and Republicans to ever lose an election again for the foreseeable future. They don't even try to hide that intent!

I suspect they will even go so far as to try to denaturalize and deport legitimately naturalized legal citizens whose political persuasions they don't like and end birthright citizenship for their children or, for that matter, any born to immigrants they don't like, whether legal residents or not, the constitution be damned! Hopefully the Supreme Court will rule against such blatant constitutional violations, but I fear that the conservative Justices Trump appointed may be so deep in his pocket that we can't be sure even of that!
Last edited by Gunnar on Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:09 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

Post by yellowstone123 »

Please correct me if I’m wrong but if inflation slows that means the price of certain products don’t increase significantly, but it doesn’t mean that the price of those items reverse to what they were years ago. For example the price of butter is not going to decrease when inflation slows down.

Here is Morning Joe being corrected by his co-host and wife, Mika Brzezinski about the price of butter.

https://youtu.be/g9WzXC9JVPg?si=vuDdaisSBugt6lLc
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Bret Ripley
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

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yellowstone123 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:26 pm
Please correct me if I’m wrong but if inflation slows that means the price of certain products don’t increase significantly, but it doesn’t mean that the price of those items reverse to what they were years ago. For example the price of butter is not going to decrease when inflation slows down.

Here is Morning Joe being corrected by his co-host and wife, Mika Brzezinski about the price of butter.

https://youtu.be/g9WzXC9JVPg?si=vuDdaisSBugt6lLc
I haven't watched the video, but it's always worth remembering that published inflation rates don't even include food and energy costs.
yellowstone123
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

Post by yellowstone123 »

Bret Ripley wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:37 pm
yellowstone123 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:26 pm
Please correct me if I’m wrong but if inflation slows that means the price of certain products don’t increase significantly, but it doesn’t mean that the price of those items reverse to what they were years ago. For example the price of butter is not going to decrease when inflation slows down.

Here is Morning Joe being corrected by his co-host and wife, Mika Brzezinski about the price of butter.

https://youtu.be/g9WzXC9JVPg?si=vuDdaisSBugt6lLc
I haven't watched the video, but it's always worth remembering that published inflation rates don't even include food and energy costs.


“Has the BLS removed food or energy prices in its official measure of inflation?

No. The BLS publishes thousands of CPI indexes each month, including the headline All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy. The latter series, widely referred to as the "core" CPI, is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy. However, all consumer goods and services, including food and energy, are represented in the headline CPI.”

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/comm ... ut-cpi.htm
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Bret Ripley
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Re: The Real Reason why Trump won

Post by Bret Ripley »

yellowstone123 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:58 pm
Bret Ripley wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:37 pm
I haven't watched the video, but it's always worth remembering that published inflation rates don't even include food and energy costs.


“Has the BLS removed food or energy prices in its official measure of inflation?

No. The BLS publishes thousands of CPI indexes each month, including the headline All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy. The latter series, widely referred to as the "core" CPI, is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy. However, all consumer goods and services, including food and energy, are represented in the headline CPI.”

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/comm ... ut-cpi.htm
Thanks, yellowstone. I was thinking of core inflation, which is the rate I come across most frequently. As you rightly note, some other inflation figures do indeed include food and energy. Cheers.
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