How much?

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Dr Exiled
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Re: How much?

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canpakes wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 10:43 pm
Dr Exiled wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:41 pm
The Ukraine is way overdo for an election that Zelenski cancelled. Maybe if there were an election the Ukrainians could let us know.

Regardless, should we not look for a peaceful solution? Or should we give the Ukrainians longer range missles so they can bomb Moscow and maybe start a nuclear exchange?
Surrender is a peaceful solution.

Is that what Ukraine wants?

(You missed answering ‘who invaded what’.)
Ok. You got me. Russia invaded. Obviously they did. Congrats on your rhetorical victory.

So, does that mean we should push the Ukrainians to extinction because Russia invaded to protect some ethnic Russians? Also, there was a peace deal the Ukrainians wanted early on until we had Boris Johnson kill the deal. Now after many dead, the deal will be way more favorable for Russia.

From NATO's perspective, this will be a huge loss and a stupid campaign. But I'm sure the defense contractors made out. So, there's that.
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Moksha
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Re: How much?

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Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:49 pm
Then have the government grant, uh, grants to individual states...
How will we keep them from teaching so-called "liberal" education?

If Trump wants to aid Russia in taking back countries of the Soviet Bloc, that will be fulfilling his mandate.
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Gadianton
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Re: How much?

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Dr. E wrote:Maybe or maybe the devil Mearsheimer is correct about our provocations. The Russians don't want Ukraine in NATO yet we continually pushed it and are still pushing it. Perhaps let's back away from that, get a cease fire, let the Germans build back their economy and see if we can have a peaceful coexistence? All that I'm saying, is give peace a chance ...
Mearsheimer is the lone contrarian source that I've ran across of who blames NATO, but over time, I've become less impressed with his views. Some of his ideas strike me as outright kooky, such as, why we can take Putin's NATO fears (excuses?) at face value. John misreading Putin's intents:

https://youtu.be/0T2MYXljL5o?t=71

But even if it were NATO's fault, why would that be a reason NOT to help Ukraine? 1) wouldn't we owe them even more if it was our screw-up? 2) Suppose there was undeniable proof that it wasn't NATO's fault, and purely Putin's aggression. How would that change anything for isolationists? Shades is out $203 dollars either way.

You've relied a lot on Mearsheimer's old material. Has he ever said we should stop the war ASAP? I saw him last on Lex, I honestly can't remember, but I don't recall his position being that we've got to stop this. In fact, he recommended we rattle the Nuclear sabre back at Putin.
give peace a chance
In what way was peace not being given a chance before the special operation? If NATO forced his hand before, why wouldn't it be all the worse now that two more countries have joined NATO?
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Re: How much?

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Gadianton wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 1:41 am
Dr. E wrote:Maybe or maybe the devil Mearsheimer is correct about our provocations. The Russians don't want Ukraine in NATO yet we continually pushed it and are still pushing it. Perhaps let's back away from that, get a cease fire, let the Germans build back their economy and see if we can have a peaceful coexistence? All that I'm saying, is give peace a chance ...
Mearsheimer is the lone contrarian source that I've ran across of who blames NATO, but over time, I've become less impressed with his views. Some of his ideas strike me as outright kooky, such as, why we can take Putin's NATO fears (excuses?) at face value. John misreading Putin's intents:

https://youtu.be/0T2MYXljL5o?t=71

But even if it were NATO's fault, why would that be a reason NOT to help Ukraine? 1) wouldn't we owe them even more if it was our screw-up? 2) Suppose there was undeniable proof that it wasn't NATO's fault, and purely Putin's aggression. How would that change anything for isolationists? Shades is out $203 dollars either way.

You've relied a lot on Mearsheimer's old material. Has he ever said we should stop the war ASAP? I saw him last on Lex, I honestly can't remember, but I don't recall his position being that we've got to stop this. In fact, he recommended we rattle the Nuclear sabre back at Putin.
give peace a chance
In what way was peace not being given a chance before the special operation? If NATO forced his hand before, why wouldn't it be all the worse now that two more countries have joined NATO?
We've been meddling in the Ukraine for years and years and it should stop. Jeffrey Sachs also supports Mearsheimer's views. https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-art ... in-ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbNvagE7BcM

Here is a quote from his timeline that is important. We promised not to expand NATO and then did it anyway and are obviously trying to surround Russia, probably because our elites covet their resources.
February 9, 1990. U.S. Secretary of State James Baker III agrees with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that “NATO expansion is unacceptable.”
Here are some more important timelines from the article:
January 28, 2014. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt plot regime change in Ukraine in a call that is intercepted and posted on YouTube on February 7, in which Nuland notes that “[Vice President] Biden’s willing” to help close the deal.

February 21, 2014. Governments of Ukraine, Poland, France, and Germany reach an Agreement on settlement of political crisis in Ukraine, calling for new elections later in the year. The far-right Right Sector and other armed groups instead demand Yanukovych’s immediate resignation, and take over government buildings. Yanukovych flees. The Parliament immediately strips the President of his powers without an impeachment process.

February 22, 2014. The US immediately endorses the regime change.

March 16, 2014. Russia holds a referendum in Crimea that according to the Russian Government results in a large majority vote for Russian rule. On March 21, the Russian Duma votes to admit Crimea to the Russian Federation. The Russian Government draws the analogy to the Kosovo referendum. The US rejects the Crimea referendum as illegitimate.

After Putin invaded there was a chance for peace that we and the British rejected:
March 16, 2022. Russia and Ukraine announce significant progress towards a peace agreement mediated by Turkey and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. As reported in the press, the basis of the agreement includes: “a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces.”

March 28, 2022. President Zelensky publicly declares that Ukraine is ready for neutrality combined with security guarantees as part of a peace agreement with Russia. “Security guarantees and neutrality, the non-nuclear status of our state — we’re ready to do that. That’s the most important point ... they started the war because of it.”

April 7, 2022. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accuses the West of trying to derail the peace talks, claiming that Ukraine had gone back on previously agreed proposals. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett later states (on February 5, 2023) that the U.S. had blocked the pending Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. When asked if the Western powers blocked the agreement, Bennett answered: “Basically, yes. They blocked it, and I thought they were wrong.” At some point, says Bennett, the West decided “to crush Putin rather than to negotiate.”
Regarding your question about helping Ukraine, stopping the war, stopping the slaughter is what will help Ukraine. We shouldn't be meddling in their affairs regardless of what Blackrock or JP Morgan Chase want. We should avoid pushing a nuclear power.

As an aside, I am continually surprised by how experts are elevated to almost deity here and elsewhere, when convenient. Experts are to aid the jury in decision making, not to usurp the jury. So, whatever a given expert said here or there is merely part of the mix. Critical thinking should still be the main component of decision making.

You asked: In what way was peace not being given a chance before the special operation? Take a look at Mr. Sach's timeline. Also, we don't even talk to the Russians and we killed the peace deal brokered in Turkey. We haven't been for peace at all.
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canpakes
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Re: How much?

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Dr Exiled wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:18 pm
canpakes wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 10:43 pm
Surrender is a peaceful solution.

Is that what Ukraine wants?

(You missed answering ‘who invaded what’.)
Ok. You got me. Russia invaded. Obviously they did. Congrats on your rhetorical victory.
I don’t know if it’s a rhetorical victory, but it is a fact that Russia invaded Ukraine.
So, does that mean we should push the Ukrainians to extinction because Russia invaded to protect some ethnic Russians?
The decision is Ukraine’s. If that country wants to remain independent in some form that they favor, does that mean that you should push them to become a conquered remnant of their former self in order to please the ego of the dictator next door?

Whose wish gets priority in this case? The attacker, or the attacked?
Also, there was a peace deal the Ukrainians wanted early on until we had Boris Johnson kill the deal. Now after many dead, the deal will be way more favorable for Russia.
That’s one perspective. There are many who hold a different perspective:

“In an October 2022 analysis, Taras Fedirko, a Ukrainian academic at the University of Glasgow in Scotland, contended that the West didn’t “halt” Ukraine’s peace negotiations with Russia. Instead, Russia’s fundamental unreliability to honor its security commitments made such talks futile in the first place. Moscow, after all, had been reluctant to uphold its commitments to peace agreements since the Minsk Accords, a series of international treaties designed to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine since 2014. These accords, which were originally intended to cease hostilities and promote political reconciliation between Ukraine and its separatist regions, were exploited by Russia. Instead of fostering peace, they served as a diplomatic pretext for Russia’s control over parts of the Donbas, setting the stage for a full-scale invasion eight years later.”

https://issforum.org/commentary/h-diplo ... in-ukraine
From NATO's perspective, this will be a huge loss and a stupid campaign. But I'm sure the defense contractors made out. So, there's that.
No. Rather than have Russia simply march in and gain territory and influence at little cost to themselves but at tremendous Ukrainian expense, they have encountered resistance, endured significant human and material losses, and experienced degradation of their military capability. The cost to NATO has essentially been nil, aside from expending older armaments.

And, yes - the defense contractors will certainly benefit from all of this. There’s no doubt about that. But I suppose that you could choose between that option, or having Putin retain all benefit from the affair, instead.
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canpakes
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Re: How much?

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Dr Exiled wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 2:37 am
February 9, 1990. U.S. Secretary of State James Baker III agrees with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that “NATO expansion is unacceptable.”
The Soviet Union no longer exists.

Dr Exiled wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 2:37 am
March 16, 2014. Russia holds a referendum in Crimea that according to the Russian Government results in a large majority vote for Russian rule.
Oh, yes. According to the Russian government. ; )
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Re: How much?

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I Have Questions wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:11 pm
Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 12:49 pm
No, my position is that NATO, and the American foreign policy of foreign aid and military interventionism, is a hugely detrimental money sink, especially considering the size of the deficit.
The United States had $699 billion in total bilateral trade with the European Union in 2015. That trade can occur only if the key ports and airfields supporting it are secure. NATO contributes significantly to that security.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... e-numbers/

I guess you could limit trade to just internal stuff, right?
So without NATO, those key ports and airfields would be bombed by Russia or something? What would be their motive?
US foreign direct investment in Europe was $2.89 trillion, while foreign direct investment from Europe in the United States totaled approximately $2.49 trillion.
It appears to be less of a one way street than you are portraying Shades.
All of which had nothing to do with NATO.
Every day, between two thousand and three thousand airline flights cross the North Atlantic.40 Again, NATO contributes to the security on which those flights rely.
Americans can just stay at home and holiday within the United States, right?
What, would Russia shoot those flights out of the sky were it not for NATO? What would be their motive?
Gadianton wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:41 pm
Shades wrote:So, the money wasn't "generated," it was simply reallocated to those involved with supplying or otherwise working for the armaments industry. If you're not one of them, then you're not benefitting from others' tax dollars.
That's not true. Who the money goes to is secondary to the fact that it goes somewhere.
So as long as it goes somewhere other than to the people who earned it is all that matters. Do you hand out $100 bills to college students? If not, why not?
If the US hadn't got involved in WW2, the US would have remained in the Great Depression (to answer an other point you suggested).
So all those lives lost--not to mention the trillions of dollars spent--were worth getting out of the Great Depression a year or two sooner.
Along with your fiscal responsibility model, you need an macroeconomic model to go with it that is thus far untested by any real nation. I'm not saying that the growing deficit isn't a problem, I'm saying your simplistic fixes aren't necessarily fixes. For instance, in a multi-polar world where the US dollar and the US is no longer the only game in town, our capacity for debt may be substantially less.
All the more reason to stay out of debt.
You don't actually know what the tradeoffs are in terms of our debt for the isolationist scenario.
I'm not advocating isolationism. I'm advocating refraining from ballooning the deficit by sending the taxpayers' money overseas. . . with the resulting lack of benefit to the taxpayers.
So, if you have a family of four (for example) living in your home, that's $811.92 that your family could've NOT paid in taxes if the U.S.A
Good lord, the things I could have done with that 203$ that will forever be lost to me. I'm mad as hell.
Would you still be happy if the amount of your own money you didn't get was doubled to $406? How about quadrupled to $812? Where would you draw the line and say, "Hey, I earned this money, stop taking it from me and sending it overseas?" How about someone much poorer than you who works at, say, a convenience store? Do they feel as cavalier about the loss of $203 as you do?
I think you and Ceebs are well on your way to approximating the number of folks who could have been housed for that money.
"That money" ≠ $203. "That money" = $203 x 335,000,000, the population of the United States.
Ceebs agreeing with you is the only time I've ever seen Republicans suggest that deficit spending should be used to hire teachers and build houses for poor people.
I'm not a Republican.
As soon as spending for Ukraine gets brought up, all the Republicans are suddenly progressive Democrats who want to go into debt feeding the homeless.
Presuming to speak for Republicans for a moment, I imagine their line of thinking is that it's better for American tax dollars be spent on Americans in America than flushed down the toilet by giving it away as gifts to foreign governments.
canpakes wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 2:49 pm
Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 7:49 am
That quote ignores the fact that the money being spent was siphoned out of the pockets of Americans to begin with. If not through taxation, then through borrowing money, a.k.a. deficit spending, which will need to be paid back at some point.
Sure. I understand how taxation works. And money doesn’t grow on trees. We have to turn the money printer on for that.

Which increases inflation, so it's not a real solution.
So, the money wasn't "generated," it was simply reallocated to those involved with supplying or otherwise working for the armaments industry. If you're not one of them, then you're not benefitting from others' tax dollars.
Absolutely. But the implication is that this money is going somewhere other than being reallocated into US hands, when in fact it’s largely the case that it’s feeding into the US economy.
Great! Then why not advocate for a doubling of your taxes, just so long as it feeds into the U.S. economy? Or why not advocate for ballooning the deficit by another order of magnitude, since the borrowed money will feed into the U.S. economy?
Let's break the figures down: Your quote says that $68 billion was sent to Ukraine. The U.S.A. has roughly 335 million people living in it. $68,000,000,000 ÷ 335,000,000 = $202.98 (rounded down to the nearest penny) for every man, woman, and child. So, if you have a family of four (for example) living in your home, that's $811.92 that your family could've NOT paid in taxes if the U.S.A. had adopted a non-interventionist stance.
We could redirect that money to Americans in other ways. I suppose that we could help pay down student loan debt, as example. But you and Ceeboo may need to distance yourselves from your current political ideologies a bit more if you’re starting to talk about doing that, or giving houses away to homeless people, because those sorts of things are icky socialism, and homeless losers certainly don’t deserve free houses for making bad financial decisions or being addicts. I didn’t find that proposal within the Project 2025 handbook, anyway.
Better to have icky socialism than to have nothing at all by flushing the money down the toilet, wouldn't you say?
The problem with ‘MAGA’ and ‘America First’ is that it only applies to the person making the list. It’s better described as, ‘Me First’. There are a lot of folks making their own list, and their priorities won’t be yours. How do you resolve that?
That's just the sad reality of politics. I'm very used to it. I won't complain too much as long as the deficit isn't increased and the money gets used in-house instead of flushed down the toilet.
Our incoming Administration’s priorities are all about launching a deportation program that some smart folks are calculating will cost around $88 billion dollars per 1 million people deported. What does America benefit from spending to remove working people who are arguably contributing to the economy, in order to toss them across the border?
It doesn't.
Even if the program costs a third less than estimated, that’s $202.98 (rounded down to the nearest penny) for every man, woman, and child. If you have a family of four (for example) living in your home, that's $811.92 that your family could've NOT paid in taxes if the U.S.A. had adopted a non-deportation stance.
Then let's adopt a non-deportation stance.
Then repeat that 10 more times.
Okay.
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Re: How much?

Post by I Have Questions »

Dr. Shades wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 7:36 am
I Have Questions wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:11 pm

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-dept ... e-numbers/

I guess you could limit trade to just internal stuff, right?
So without NATO, those key ports and airfields would be bombed by Russia or something? What would be their motive?
Economic disruption, terrorism, Jihad…etc. What was the motive for 9/11? How many more 9/11’s would be a price worth paying for disconnecting from NATO’s intelligence network?
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Dr. Shades
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Re: How much?

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I Have Questions wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:14 am
Dr. Shades wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 7:36 am
So without NATO, those key ports and airfields would be bombed by Russia or something? What would be their motive?
Economic disruption, terrorism, Jihad…etc. What was the motive for 9/11? How many more 9/11’s would be a price worth paying for disconnecting from NATO’s intelligence network?
Somehow I doubt flying an airplane into a port would be dramatic enough for Al-Quaeda.
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Moksha
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Re: How much?

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canpakes wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:22 am
Whose wish gets priority in this case? The attacker, or the attacked?
The dictator whom Trump admires, of course.
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