The Fentanyl Crisis thread

[Jersey Girl]

I'll ask again the question no one her seems grounded enough in their positions and politics to answer, do you believe that all borders should be wide open, or in other words no more borders.

If I understand you correctly, no. I don't believe there should be no more borders.

Kindly answer this question:

Do you think there are wide open borders right now? If so, how are they wide open?

[canpakes]

I'll ask again the question no one her seems grounded enough in their positions and politics to answer, do you believe that all borders should be wide open, or in other words no more borders.

I’d guess that most folks will answer according to their local situation. Does the border between Yukon and Canada need a wall? Doubtful. Does some means of control prove useful where there’s significant travel to monitor, like El Paso? Absolutely.

The biggest impediment to receiving answers to your question is that ‘open border’ is a meaningless term, usually used in a disparaging way by some people against others who don’t happen to agree with a particular or extreme level of security. To me, an ‘open border’ is found when driving Interstate 10, passing from Arizona and into New Mexico, where the only indication that you’ve crossed that boundary is the sudden rumble of all of the unfixed potholes on the New Mexico side.

No matter what you want to believe, this country doesn’t have ‘open borders’ and didn’t have them during Biden’s Presidency, either. Folks that blurt that crap out (including most any right-wing media outlet, Fox News talking heads, and the occasional orange President) end up disrespecting the work of the men and women of CBP.

I note that for all of the complaining you’ve been putting out there about illegals, you are nearly completely mum on the desire of US agriculture, construction, hospitality and a handful of other industries to maintain a certain level of cheap and/or illegal labor for reasons of keeping their bottom line looking good. How much should these industries be held accountable for being the main drivers of the flow of noncitizens, and consequently (as you would link it) fentanyl supplies?

[Markk]

Cake: That being the case, is there anything else that Trump has proposed to assist addicted Americans and to bring the fentanyl crisis to an end?

Markk: I don't know, he has only been is office for 3 weeks. He has cut some programs, that I assume they thought weren't working. What we know is that under Biden it was not working. It will take some time to see how this all unfolds, and what programs will be funded, and which ones won't.

Cakes:
Well, that’s odd. Project 2025 has been around for at least a year and is 900 pages long. Are you telling me that the architects of the Second Trump Presidency either cared not to develop any fentanyl plan other than Mass Deportations!! or Tariffs!!, or that they simply didn’t think that the crisis was worth any more thinking than that?

CFR that the authors and contributors of Project 2025 are the architects of this Trump Presidency, and it has nothing to do with any propositions by Trump in this presidency. Lol, there is one architect of Trump and his presidency, and that is Trump. He is too much of a narcissist to let anyone else do or claim such a thing.

[canpakes]

CFR that the authors and contributors of Project 2025 are the architects of this Trump Presidency, and it has nothing to do with any propositions by Trump in this presidency. Lol, there is one architect of Trump and his presidency, and that is Trump. He is too much of a narcissist to let anyone else do or claim such a thing.

Wait. You seriously want to turn down that rabbit hole, now? : )

[Markk]

I'll ask again the question no one her seems grounded enough in their positions and politics to answer, do you believe that all borders should be wide open, or in other words no more borders.

I’d guess that most folks will answer according to their local situation. Does the border between Yukon and Canada need a wall? Doubtful. Does some means of control prove useful where there’s significant travel to monitor, like El Paso? Absolutely.

The biggest impediment to receiving answers to your question is that ‘open border’ is a meaningless term, usually used in a disparaging way by some people against others who don’t happen to agree with a particular or extreme level of security. To me, an ‘open border’ is found when driving Interstate 10, passing from Arizona and into New Mexico, where the only indication that you’ve crossed that boundary is the sudden rumble of all of the unfixed potholes on the New Mexico side.

You wrote...." To me, an ‘open border’ is found when driving Interstate 10, passing from Arizona and into New Mexico." which is what I meant with even more nuances such as no border patrol and no immigration laws, no restrictions. Anyone from any country can come here and make it there home, just because the want to.

Do you believe this, or should we regulate by law what comes in and out, and who is allowed to live and work here?

[Markk]

CFR that the authors and contributors of Project 2025 are the architects of this Trump Presidency, and it has nothing to do with any propositions by Trump in this presidency. Lol, there is one architect of Trump and his presidency, and that is Trump. He is too much of a narcissist to let anyone else do or claim such a thing.

Wait. You seriously want to turn down that rabbit hole, now? : )

What rabbit hole? That the P-25 was the Architect for the Trump presidency? You brought that up.

If you want to talk about Trump being a narcissist, not really but I certainly will. Most leaders are....Biden was when he had all is faculties, Obama is, Clinton is, Hillary certainly is....Bush maybe not so much. Carter I would argue was on the echoist spectrum if anything. I would say Harris was and is just incompetent. I don't know if anyone could win an argument that Trump is not a narcissist.

Start a thread it would be fun.

[canpakes]

I’d guess that most folks will answer according to their local situation. Does the border between Yukon and Canada need a wall? Doubtful. Does some means of control prove useful where there’s significant travel to monitor, like El Paso? Absolutely.

The biggest impediment to receiving answers to your question is that ‘open border’ is a meaningless term, usually used in a disparaging way by some people against others who don’t happen to agree with a particular or extreme level of security. To me, an ‘open border’ is found when driving Interstate 10, passing from Arizona and into New Mexico, where the only indication that you’ve crossed that boundary is the sudden rumble of all of the unfixed potholes on the New Mexico side.

You wrote...." To me, an ‘open border’ is found when driving Interstate 10, passing from Arizona and into New Mexico." which is what I meant with even more nuances such as no border patrol and no immigration laws, no restrictions. Anyone from any country can come here and make it there home, just because the want to.

Do you believe this, or should we regulate by law what comes in and out, and who is allowed to live and work here?

You didn’t read what I wrote, did you? Because you just skipped over my answer and did that thing that you always do, where you invent your own answer for someone else when the other person’s answer doesn’t jive with where you want the conversation to go. : D

[Markk]

Pakes: No matter what you want to believe, this country doesn’t have ‘open borders’ and didn’t have them during Biden’s Presidency, either. Folks that blurt that crap out (including most any right-wing media outlet, Fox News talking heads, and the occasional orange President) end up disrespecting the work of the men and women of CBP.

Come on pakes, then why did the CBP union support Trump and why is moral higher than it has been in years?

Our border was open enough to allow over 10 million inadmissible illegal immigrants in since 2021, and why it is referred to as an open border.

This how Harris aggressively attacked it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzqDUhaOb10

[canpakes]

Wait. You seriously want to turn down that rabbit hole, now? : )

What rabbit hole? That the P-25 was the Architect for the Trump presidency? You brought that up.

Yes, I mentioned that. Then you stepped in to tell me that you think that Trump thinks up all of his policy details all by his narcissistic self.

Well, we’re not quite a month after the change in Administrations, and here are some of the prominent folks associated with Project 2025 who’ve been installed to help run the show:

Russ Vought

Vought, one of Project 2025’s top architects, is expected to lead the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the agency that develops the president’s proposed budget and executes the president’s agenda.

Vought plays a prominent role for Project 2025. Not only did he author a chapter on “Executive Office of the President” for the project’s “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise”, but his Center for Renewing America is also a member of Project 2025’s advisory board. According to press reports, Vought “was also deeply involved in drafting Project 2025's playbook for the first 180 days of a new Trump administration.” 

Vought was also the architect of Schedule F, a misguided plan to reclassify federal employees as at-will employees who could be fired for any reason. He served as OMB director during Trump’s first administration, during which OMB reclassified 88% of its employees as Schedule F. But the reclassification was not fully implemented at OMB or other agencies, and President Biden repealed Trump’s Schedule F directive after he took office. 

Vought recently said in an interview, “There certainly is going to be mass layoffs and firings, particularly at some of the agencies that we don’t even think should exist.”

Stephen Miller

Miller is Trump’s pick to serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy and the president’s homeland security adviser.

He is Trump’s former adviser and the head of the conservative legal activist group, America First Legal, which served as one of Project 2025’s advisory organizations. Miller was also featured in videos produced by the Heritage Foundation promoting Project 2025.

Karoline Leavitt

Leavitt is Trump's’ pick for White House Press Secretary. She is his 2024 campaign’s national press secretary and served in the White House during his first term.

Leavitt is listed as one of Project 2025’s instructors who train conservatives on conservative governance best practices. The course she’s teaching is called The Art of Professionalism. She was featured in the Heritage Foundation’s videos promoting Project 2025.

Interestingly, she tried to distance Trump’s campaign from Project 2025 even though she’s a Project 2025 instructor as well as his campaign’s national press secretary.

Brendan Carr

Carr has been nominated to chair the Federal Communications Commission, an agency that regulates interstate and international communications by radio, television, wire, and satellite. He currently serves as the senior Republican on FCC, having been appointed by Trump in 2017.

Carr authored a chapter “Federal Communications Commission” for Project 2025 and has proposed reigning in big tech and media companies that he claims have improperly “censored” conservatives’ views by limiting the reach of misinformation and lies.

Tom Homan, Border Czar

Homan has been appointed “border czar” who will oversee the southern and northern U.S. borders and all maritime and aviation security.

Homan served as the acting head of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during Trump’s first administration. He retired in 2018 after the White House failed to move his nomination toward Senate confirmation. This time, Homan will bypass the process completely because his “border czar” role does not require Senate confirmation.

Homan is listed as an overall contributor of Project 2025.

https://www.afge.org/article/new-Trump- ... rchitects/

A bit more detail:

The (Project 2025) “Mandate for Leadership” is composed of 30 chapters, organized into five large sections. Here is a section-by-section breakdown showing some of the ways in which Project 2025’s policies and personnel overlap with Mr. Trump’s.

The executive branch and government personnel

The document’s first section calls for an escalation of executive power and a sweeping overhaul of government personnel. This includes reinstating a Trump executive order known as Schedule F, which would have enabled Mr. Trump to fire tens of thousands of federal workers and replace them with loyalists. Mr. Trump signed the order near the end of his presidency and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. later rescinded it.

Dennis Dean Kirk co-wrote the chapter in this section on central personnel agencies. Mr. Kirk was involved with the adoption of Schedule F, which Mr. Trump has pledged to immediately reinstate in a second term.

The Heritage Foundation president, Kevin D. Roberts, wrote the foreword to the Project 2025 document. Photo evidence shows he took a private flight with Mr. Trump in April of 2022 from Palm Beach, Fla., to a Heritage Foundation conference. There, Mr. Trump gave a keynote address, where he said of Mr. Roberts: “I know what he did and where he came from, and he’s going to be outstanding.”

Mr. Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, wrote the foreword to Mr. Roberts’s forthcoming book, “Dawn’s Early Light.”

In addition to Mr. Kirk, three other authors of the document’s first section served in Mr. Trump’s administration:

Rick Dearborn, who wrote the chapter on the White House office, served as a White House deputy chief of staff and as executive director of Mr. Trump’s 2016 presidential transition team. Mr. Trump called him a “great asset to the administration” in a statement to The Oklahoman.

Russell T. Vought, Mr. Trump’s former budget director, was selected in May to be the policy director of the committee that develops the Republican Party’s platform.

Project 2025’s former director, Paul Dans, served as chief of staff at the Office of Personnel Management in the Trump administration. He and Mr. Kirk co-wrote the chapter on personnel agencies. In recent months, Mr. Dans has criticized the Trump campaign and condemned Mr. Roberts’s “violent rhetoric.”


Immigration, national security and media

The document’s second section covers the Defense, Homeland Security and State Departments, as well as media agencies.

Ken Cuccinelli wrote the chapter on the Homeland Security Department. He served as acting deputy secretary of homeland security in the Trump administration and in another role led legal immigration efforts. In his chapter, Mr. Cuccinelli details aggressive immigration plans, including militarizing the Southern border and completing the border wall, the latter of which was a cornerstone of Mr. Trump’s first campaign. This election cycle, Mr. Trump has promised to lead the biggest deportation operation in American history and to use the military to secure the border.

Christopher Miller wrote the chapter on the Defense Department. He served in the last months of the Trump administration as the acting defense secretary. As president-elect, Mr. Biden said his transition team faced “obstruction” from Mr. Miller and the Defense Department, which Mr. Miller denied.

Mr. Miller’s chapter mentions reversing policies that currently allow transgender people to serve in the military. Early in his presidency, Mr. Trump announced on Twitter a ban on transgender people serving in the military, which Mr. Biden later reversed.

All of the five other authors in this section have connections to the first Trump administration, including Kiron K. Skinner, who wrote the chapter on the State Department. She led policy planning in that department and was also a member of Mr. Trump’s transition team in 2016.


Major executive departments

This section’s 11 chapters call for a significant contraction of many federal agencies and social programs.

The chapters call for a repeal of existing protections for L.G.B.T.Q. individuals and demand an end to many diversity, equity and inclusion programs. In many of his rallies, Mr. Trump has said he would “keep men out of women’s sports.” During his presidency, Mr. Trump erased protections for transgender patients in health care.

Project 2025 also calls for the federal government to further restrict abortion, including outlawing the abortion pill. Mr. Trump has said he opposes a federal abortion ban and that abortion rights should be decided by the states, though he has been inconsistent on the issue.

Gene Hamilton wrote the chapter on the Justice Department. Mr. Hamilton, a lawyer who served in the Trump administration, calls for sweeping changes to the Justice Department that would ultimately erode its independence from White House political control.

Mr. Trump has similarly criticized the legitimacy of the department, particularly its investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election. He has said he would “completely overhaul” the department and pledged to appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” President Biden and his family.

Project 2025 additionally calls for the dismantling of the federal Education Department, which Mr. Trump has also pledged to do.

Eight other authors who wrote chapters in this section are connected to Mr. Trump’s administration, including Jonathan Berry, who also served as chief counsel for the Trump transition team in 2016, and Ben Carson, who served in Mr. Trump’s cabinet as the secretary of the Housing and Urban Development Department.

Mr. Trump announced in September that Mr. Carson would be the national faith chairman of his 2024 campaign.


The economy

Seven authors of the section on the economy took on roles in Mr. Trump’s administration or on his 2016 campaign or transition teams. They include prominent advisers such as Stephen Moore and Peter Navarro, who spoke in support of Mr. Trump at the Republican National Convention this year.

Mr. Navarro wrote a chapter in this section about trade. He was the first senior Trump administration official to serve time over efforts to overturn the 2020 election. He had just been released from prison the morning of his convention speech, after completing a four-month sentence for defying a subpoena in the Jan. 6 investigation.

Both Project 2025 and Mr. Trump have proposed tax policies that would largely benefit corporations and wealthier Americans. Mr. Trump has said he would lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from 21 percent.

The Project 2025 blueprint’s authors also want to reduce the corporate tax rate, but they go further, with a proposal to collapse the tax code into just two brackets — 15 percent and 30 percent — while eliminating deductions, credits and exclusions. An analysis by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, found that this plan would raise taxes by thousands of dollars for individual middle-class households each year.

Karen Kerrigan wrote a chapter on the Small Business Administration. She is the president and chief executive of the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council and sat with Mr. Trump at a 2017 tax policy meeting at the White House.


Independent regulatory agencies

Project 2025’s fifth and final section recommends large-scale changes for a number of independent regulatory agencies, which would reduce their autonomy and bring them under executive control.

Mr. Trump and his allies likewise intend to bring independent agencies like the Federal Communications Commission (which makes and enforces rules for television and internet companies) and the Federal Trade Commission (which enforces various antitrust and other consumer protection rules against businesses) under direct presidential control.

Four of the authors of this section of the policy document are linked to Mr. Trump’s first administration, including Robert Bowes, who was also a field director on Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Edwin J. Feulner, a co-founder of the Heritage Foundation, wrote the closing chapter: “Onward!” He met Mr. Trump at least twice: once at a Heritage event, and a second time at a dinner with conservative grassroots leaders hosted by Mr. Trump in 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ation.html

I’m sure that you’ll now tell me that none of these people have ever been seen with Trump.

[Gadianton]

Well, that’s odd. Project 2025 has been around for at least a year and is 900 pages long. Are you telling me that the architects of the Second Trump Presidency either cared not to develop any fentanyl plan other than Mass Deportations!! or Tariffs!!, or that they simply didn’t think that the crisis was worth any more thinking than that?

This was a particularly good point. Fighting Fentanyl has never been part of the plan. This is Trump winging it. I give it it 60% odds that Trump won't make a dent in Fentanyl distribution and 40% odds that Trump will make a dent or two in supply chains, but the effects on consumption will be open to interpretation, and the supply chains will re-route for a net-zero effect. And that's assuming he goes through with military intervention. I also give it 60% odds that Fentanyl consumption will increase under Trump.

Marcus asked about demand and is not getting a response from the Trump reps. This may help with Fentanyl demand estimating: Warren Buffet is selling bank stocks and buying alcohol stocks. Trump's economic advisor, Stephen Miran, probably isn't qualified to run the country, but knows enough to know better than to support Trump. He's a Trump apologist of sorts, Trump says what he wants to do, and he tries to find a way to make it sorta work. He agrees that tariffs will be very painful, but he thinks our country's overall economic might will allow us to weather the hardship better than China. I don't think he's considered that the average Chinese person will out-suffer the average American any day of the week. At least we'll have fentanyl to numb the pain. Miran believes we can weather the storm, offsetting losses by stimulating business. I'll bet you'll never guess how: lowering taxes on corporations and the rich.

Now, I do think you brought up a very good point, and that the new regime is uniquely situated to tackle drugs better than any administration ever. Authoritarianism -- the great Christian nation that squashes personal rights. If Trump pastors are willing to execute for abortions then they'll be ready to execute drug dealers and users alike, That will affect demand. But will it be enough? China executed people like crazy during the opium wars, and that didn't fix it. But, the CCP did solve the problem, and only an authoritarian regime likely would have been able to see it through.

Somewhere online I picked up somebody's published honor's thesis titled: The PRC and its Anti-Drug War: The Opium Suppression
The PRC and its Anti-Drug War: The Opium Suppression . It has a great summary of the CCP campaign. Here are point summaries of the demand side:

6. Register all addicts within a suitable timeframe
7. Provide resources such as clinics and medications to aid opium addicts in
rehabilitation, but require that these medications be under the strict control
of the Chinese Health Department
8. Create rehabilitation centers in cities with severe drug problems

It needs to be said that the consequences for failure were severe, including executions, but there was, indeed, tremendous resources made available to help the addicts beyond the mere beatings and executions that failed to tame demand in the previous hundred years or so. the CCP solved it in 3. Can you imagine DOGE authorizing the spending necessary to see the medical side of this through? It's out of the question.

There's also no real reason to solve the problem. The root of China's economic power was hordes of cheap labor. A labor force largely addicted to opium was a serious issue. Outsourcing, automation, and now A.I. call into question the need for large sections of our population in terms of production. Solving Fentanyl isn't going to make Musk, Bezos, Trump, or most billionaires any richer, and so what was their motivation again for fixing the problem? Oh that's right, their motivation was to scape goat immigrants and keep the momentum of the uneducated horde riled up and voting red so they can grift. Their goal is to profit from the problem.