Calling it "Politically Motivated"

[Chap]

What I'm fascinated by is the short term tariff's that are meant to incentivize businesses to rush back and rebuild manufacturing, thereby affording factory workers long-term high wages. wow. what a plan!

Er, yes!

Just to spell it out:

Product X is not produced (or little of it is produced) in the US. Instead, it is mostly imported from country Y.

Trump slaps a large tariff on imports of Product X. That means that Product X rises in price for US consumers (I mean, that's what a tariff is intended to make happen. It's not the foreign producer who pays.)

Never mind! We are told that the extra pressure on the budget of the US consumer is only short term, until the US can get tooled up to produce this product itself - which it has not so far done, because the foreign-produced Product X is too cheap to pay for it to be produced by highly paid US workers.

OK, encouraged by the now higher price of the imported Product X, US factories tool up factories and train workers to produce it. Eventually, we are told, success! Product X is now produced in the US, so the tariff can come off. The short-term hit on US consumers is over!!!

BUT ... all the expensive new US production facilities were set up on the assumption that the price of Product X would remain high. If you cut the tariff, Product X will again be available more cheaply from foreign sources than it is from US sources.

So either the tariff stays on forever, and US consumers pay the higher price for ever, or the tariff comes off, the price of Product X falls, and all those expensive US factories close and those well-paid US workers are out of a job.

Either tariffs and the resultant higher prices for US consumers are permanent, or it won't be produced in the US, or if it is produced it will stop being produced when tariffs are removed. To protect US production, tariffs and higher prices for US consumers MUST BE PERMANENT.

The bolded parts are the key to understanding. Will anyone dare to tell Trump this? Not if they want to keep their job!

[Markk]

Gotta run to work, but quickly pipefitters build, expand, and maintain factories. period. It is what they mainly do, not to confuse them with a plumber. Distribution centers do not generally use pipefitters, they use open warehouse space, and maintenance is minimum compared to manufacturing.

Understood, but I’m not seeing a huge surge in the number of pipe fitters coming about from tariffs. You’d want to make a case for that.

In order to export more, and import less, and create an equal and balanced trade with partners, then we have to manufacture more....which creates jobs for pipefitters in new manufacturing plants, expanding and modernizing existing plants, and overall maintenance of plants.

Also keep in mind that more manufacturing, with create a demand for more power needs to run these plants. Plants create energy with steam, and pipefitters are key in this discipline; fitting, welding, and maintaining high pressure steam lines. From what I have read around 40% of our energy is via steam generated turbines.

From what I am reading you do not seem to see one major reason for tariffs, is to create and equal and balanced partnership. When we import foreign manufactured goods, we basically export US money, when we export US manufactured goods, we import money that we can invest in more manufacturing and growth.

[canpakes]

high pressure From what I have read around 40% of our energy is via steam generated turbines.

Steam has some very specific uses at the industrial plant level, for specific products, and those scopes should not be confused with steam turbine use for electrical plant generation.

That said, why do we need to restrict potential manufacturing to whatever could be tariffed? Would it not make more sense to concentrate investments into expanding the production of things that this country already leads in, or within markets favorable to us?

And why would an auto plant schedule a multi-year plant construction to make bit parts when tariffs are arbitrarily applied and could be rescinded tomorrow, based on if Trump thinks that his poll numbers are dropping? You’re asking American industry to spend foolishly with no guarantee of not ending up wasting a crap-ton of money on new infrastructure that will be shuttered as soon as Trump burps up another word salad.

When we import foreign manufactured goods, we basically export US money, when we export US manufactured goods, we import money that we can invest in more manufacturing and growth.

That money isn’t being buried in a hole. The biggest buyers of US Treasuries over the last several decades have been China and Japan. That investment also fuels our growth.

[Gadianton]

That money isn’t being buried in a hole. The biggest buyers of US Treasuries over the last several decades have been China and Japan. That investment also fuels our growth.

Exactly. Most people don't know (and I don't blame them) that a trade deficit (a current account surplus to be exact) is exactly offset by a capital account surplus; it's accounting, should a right-winger out there who is confused about this (and there might be one) happened to be married to an accountant and want to ask. I recall a right-winger complained in the inflation thread about Democrats "weakening the dollar", a strong dollar, unfortunately, is an enemy to exporters. You can't have a strong dollar and be a big exporter. It's amazing that right-wingers are so frighteningly unaware of how little they know and never seek to correct the problem. I normally wouldn't look down on someone for not being able to rattle off macro ideas, but if the person is a cross-eyed supporter of Trump down to the last tooth and have it all worked out in their mind without the slightest concern that they might not know wtf they are talking about, then there is reason to look down upon the person for this.

In addition to Chap's fine explanation, it's worth pointing out that these aren't just final goods tariffs but intermediate, and so US car manufacturers have an even higher bar to overcome as not only do they have to build a facility in the US and hire American workers, but pay a lot for all the stuff to make the car (not to mention the factory).

There's no loose change on the floor, as they say; there is no easy set of policies let alone the mad ravings of an incompetent fool that is going to insource America and oh, it will be a few tough years and then everything will take off. Nope. Not going to happen. Believe me, nobody hates outsourcers more than I do, but reality is reality.

[Markk]

high pressure From what I have read around 40% of our energy is via steam generated turbines.

Steam has some very specific uses at the industrial plant level, for specific products, and those scopes should not be confused with steam turbine use for electrical plant generation.

And why would an auto plant schedule a multi-year plant construction to make bit parts when tariffs are arbitrarily applied and could be rescinded tomorrow, based on if Trump thinks that his poll numbers are dropping? You’re asking American industry to spend foolishly with no guarantee of not ending up wasting a crap-ton of money on new infrastructure that will be shuttered as soon as Trump burps up another word salad.

When we import foreign manufactured goods, we basically export US money, when we export US manufactured goods, we import money that we can invest in more manufacturing and growth.

That money isn’t being buried in a hole. The biggest buyers of US Treasuries over the last several decades have been China and Japan. That investment also fuels our growth.

Cakes, how does the steam get from the boiler, to the turbines, and exhaust from? I am not confusing anything.

That said, why do we need to restrict potential manufacturing to whatever could be tariffed? Would it not make more sense to concentrate investments into expanding the production of things that this country already leads in, or within markets favorable to us?

It seems you are talking about equal trade? Maybe you can give me few examples here on what you mean.

We use to lead in so many things. But what free trade, and lopsided tariffs did, and does....is that we give our technology away to countries like China, who at first make our products for cheaper, then backward engineer and steal our technologies, and then sell those items to us for cheaper prices and we have nothing to show for it because we can no longer compete. This is another part of the matrix of tariff's.

But hey, I am open to an example of what you are talking about here, again give me a few examples.

Cakes...That money isn’t being buried in a hole. The biggest buyers of US Treasuries over the last several decades have been China and Japan. That investment also fuels our growth.

Yes, we buy their manufactured goods and with the monies we are exporting, they invest in more manufacturing in their countries, and buying things like treasuries. And yes over the past 20 years, as we export our money with lopsided trade; thanks to free trade. What you just unwittingly wrote, is another reason for tariffs.

[Markk]

[img]Cakes: I place more faith in ‘free trade’ than the alternatives. It is not a perfect system but has obvious efficiencies.

‘Fair trade’ has merit when the concept addresses dumping or subsidized manufacturing from foreign sources, but those practices are difficult to counter regardless.

‘Balanced trade’ seems like a relatively meaningless term (or buzzword) used to describe some sort of mythical environment where a perfect dollar balance is somehow maintained between countries producing disparate items such as unicorns, lucky charms, and unobtanium.[/img]

So you agree and support Nafta?

Do believe that our exporting once good paying jobs a good thing?

In regard to balanced trade, is a trade deficit good or bad in your opinion. So if we have a 300 billion dollar deficit to China, is that good in your opinion?

[canpakes]

Cakes, how does the steam get from the boiler, to the turbines, and exhaust from? I am not confusing anything.

You’re quoting a figure that is not clear if it is related to electrical generation for general consumption via the grid, or for site-specific industrial use (non-consumer). Clarify your figure.

Now, just how many factories are you expecting to be built that will cause such an increase in the pipefitter population? And how long will that last? Feel free to use the excellent resource below for information -

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes472152.htm

By the way, you’ll notice that pipefitters aren’t exactly killing it in the wage department, either. Wait ‘til you start asking your pipefitter to pay an extra 25% for his truck and equipment ‘because tariffs’. These are major dollar increases for working folks. I’m not seeing that as a positive enough outcome to justify asking your crew to pony up an additional $12K if they were looking at replacing their F150, just so that President MemeCoin can divert the public’s wages back towards financing his tax cut for the top 5%.

That money isn’t being buried in a hole. The biggest buyers of US Treasuries over the last several decades have been China and Japan. That investment also fuels our growth.

Yes, we buy their manufactured goods and with the monies we are exporting, they invest in more manufacturing in their countries, and buying things like treasuries. And yes over the past 20 years, as we export our money with lopsided trade; thanks to free trade. What you just unwittingly wrote, is another reason for tariffs.

Your logic isn’t holding up there.

Aside from that, just who is doing all of this lopsided trade, and why is it the Government’s job to fix it? And why should the Government punish the taxpayer for buying what is available at a fair price?

No one forced any American company to set up their manufacturing facility abroad. That’s capitalism at work.

[Markk]

You’re quoting a figure that is not clear of it is related to electrical generation for general consumption via the grid, or for site-specific industrial use (non-consumer). Clarify your figure.

Now, just how many factories are you expecting to be built that will cause such an increase in the pipefitter population?and how long will that last? Feel free to use the excellent resource below for information -

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes472152.htm

By the way, you’ll notice that pipefitters aren’t exactly killing it in the wage department, either. Wait ‘til you start asking your pipefitter to pay an extra 25% for his truck and equipment ‘because tariffs’. These are major dollar increases for working folks. I’m not seeing that as a positive enough outcome to justify asking your crew to pony up an additional $12K if they were looking at replacing their F150, just so that President MemeCoin can divert the public’s wages back towards financing his tax cut for the top 5%.

Lol, Cake....steam travels through pipes, really thick welded or really high strength mechanical couplings. There is a boiler where water is put into it, it is heated until it creates steam, the steam the goes through a series of pipes, with valves and regulators, to a turbine that turns and generates electricity, the excess steam then is exhausted out in a similar fashion. The pipes, valves, regulators, manifolds, fasteners, and seismic supports are installed and maintained by pipefitters. I do not know how to simplify it any simpler. I have a friend that I went to high school with that was (retired) a pipe/steamfitter, union, and worked on mostly generation plants is whole career. He specialized in high pressure steam pipe welding.

Here is a few pictures that might help





This is just detracting from the points, but o'well.

[canpakes]

Markk, I get all that. Pipefitters work on pipes. Steam travels through pipes. Etc.

That’s fine and all, but I don’t think that tariffs are going to spawn a need for a significantly greater number of pipefitters than already exist.

A lot of the jobs offered at the website hosting that first photo are rail and oil industry jobs. Our oil production is largely independent of tariffs (if anything, it may be negatively affected, according to https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/busi ... riffs.html ) and we’re not going to lay down new railways in response to tariffs.

You might as well be telling me about all of the new unicorn farms we’re going to set up in Alabama ‘because tariffs’. Claiming that we will create new pipefitter jobs doesn’t compensate for the fact that increasing prices by 25% across the board on everything from trucks to toilets will certainly negatively impact millions of Americans.

Given how MAGA bitched about how their weekly egg purchase had increased by $3, the same folks seem to have lost their voice about having everyone pony up 25% more on virtually everything beyond those eggs, to finance a tax cut for wealthy folks. It’s interesting to watch.

[Physics Guy]

When we import foreign manufactured goods, we basically export US money, when we export US manufactured goods, we import money that we can invest in more manufacturing and growth.

Money is not a precious industrial component like lithium. Why do Chinese companies need pieces of American paper in order to build more factories and hire more workers? There is plenty of paper and ink in China.

Importing foreign goods by exporting US money is getting goods in return for bits of paper. As long as those crazy foreigners are willing to take that deal, what the heck can be wrong with it for Americans? It's a serious question, but the answer is not that money is a resource like lithium, which Americans lose when they import foreign goods.

Why is a dollar bill worth anything? It's just paper. At one time the value of paper currency was based on the legal obligation of the issuing bank to exchange silver or gold for its banknotes. That hasn't been true for a long time, however. So why is a dollar still worth anything?

The reason it's worth something is that it's legal tender. That's not just another expression for moolah. It means that if you owe someone a debt, and you give them some dollar bills, then they can't sue you to demand payment in chickens or lithium. Your debt is legally cancelled by giving those dollar bills.

It's not at all that of course the debt is legally cancelled because you've given real money. It's that dollars are real money because if you give them, the debt is legally cancelled. That's the basis of the value of money. All the billionaires' mansions and superyachts, all the share prices, everything—it all rests on just this one little law. That's been sufficient, so far.

US money is legal tender in the US, where US law holds. It's not legal tender in China. The only reason anyone in China wants a US dollar is that it will let them buy something in the US, at some point.

Well, that's not quite the only reason anyone in China wants dollars. As long as there are enough people in China who want dollars in order to be able to buy something in the US someday, other people in China will want dollars in order to trade them with those first people. In the end it's still a lot like it was in the days when banknotes were redeemable in silver, but most people didn't bother exchanging them for sackfuls of silver and just traded the bills with each other, knowing that somebody would always want them for their silver value. The legal opportunity to buy American goods and services is the new silver that makes US dollars valuable. Of course it works just the same for all other national currencies. US dollars are more popular around the world because the opportunity to buy anything from the US seems like a bigger opportunity than the opportunity to buy anything from elsewhere.

Most of the Trump rhetoric about tariffs seems to be about shifting the US balance of trade in industrial products specifically, rather than the overall bottom line for all goods and services. This has nothing to do with fairness or prosperity, though. If country A makes all the cars and country B makes all the computers, the two countries can perfectly well trade cars and computers with fairness and prosperity on both sides. In fact everyone will be more prosperous if different countries specialise in producing the things that they can produce most efficiently.

All Trump is trying to do with his tariffs is to force other Americans to subsidise American factory workers. That's not any weird academic spin on his tariffs. It's not a theory about how the tariffs will somehow lead to an unexpected result. It's the simple fact of exactly what the tariffs directly do.