Republicans in Disarray

[Res Ipsa]

So, big picture time.

It seems likely we will see one of two scenarios. One which is very unlikely, is the House votes to change the election rules to require only a plurality of votes to become the next speaker. I only see this happening if McCarthy absolutely refuses to give in, forcing the opposition to decide if they are willing to let Jefferies become Speaker rather than McCarthy take the gavel. I don't know what the odds are, but my instincts say he'd eventually cave to pressure if there is no chance he gets the votes...and I think that's the case.

The other, most likely scenario is bad. That being, the opposition to McCarthy ultimately succeed in forcing the rest of the party to accept their rule changes AND a Speaker who gives them the outsized influence on committee assignments, House rules and business, and defines their priorities in a way that tilts the boat further in the extremist MAGA direction. Slim but unlikely possibilities McCarthy stays in and manages to get holdouts to concede in this direction himself. But he'd have to be willing to be Speaker in name only and really, really denigrate himself to get there and I think he'd ultimately drop out or go nuclear with the plurality change first.

I think there is practically a zero percent chance a moderate Republicans becomes Speaker. The margin is too slim, the entrenched have no incentive to give in. Shamelessness has it's advantages...

I'm feeling dark about this the more I watch. I think the odds are this grabs the Overton window and yanks it hard. Plus, if they end up successful, expect the next Democrat majority to find itself in the same situation. This genie won't go back in the bottle easily.

Could be. But can they even change that rule before a Speaker is elected? It's a weird situation.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Gaetz nominated Trump.

- Doc

I don't think he nominated Trump. The reps aren't restricted to voting for nominees. So far, he's voted for Trump in two rounds. Both of those votes were included in the "other" total.

Hrm. Unless news outlets are misreporting it, I’m pretty sure it was a nomination. But this process is fairly mysterious to me, so I’m not sure if vote and nominate are the same thing essentially:

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6318241897112

Lol @ Trump:

https://gyazo.com/29bcccb4052b2f9995401f369ed69d2e

- Doc

[hauslern]

Here in Australia I watch on youtube the goings on among the members of congress. in my opinion even if McCarthy gets the position those who initially rejected him will have the power to reject bills. I cannot recall Pelosi having a vote not approved by her collegues before it went to the floor.

[Res Ipsa]

I don't think he nominated Trump. The reps aren't restricted to voting for nominees. So far, he's voted for Trump in two rounds. Both of those votes were included in the "other" total.

Hrm. Unless news outlets are misreporting it, I’m pretty sure it was a nomination. But this process is fairly mysterious to me, so I’m not sure if vote and nominate are the same thing essentially:

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6318241897112

Lol @ Trump:

https://gyazo.com/29bcccb4052b2f9995401f369ed69d2e

- Doc

Just from watching the process (which I'm doing on C-SPAN), nominations happen before the vote starts. I've been tracking the nominations for each round in this thread. However, the reps can vote for anyone they want, whether that person was nominated or not. I'm not surprised that Fox got this wrong.

[Res Ipsa]

Here in Australia I watch on youtube the goings on among the members of congress.in my opinion even if McCarthy gets the position those who initially rejected him will have the power to reject bills. I cannot recall Pelosi having a vote not approved by her collegues before it went to the floor.

That's due to a controversial practice in the House called the Hastert Rule. It's not a formal rule. A speaker who follows the Hastert rule will refuse to bring a bill to the floor unless the bill will be pass without needed any votes from the other party. This means that bills that would be supported by a majority of the House are never brought to the floor for a vote. It also takes away any incentive to cooperate with the minority party. If votes from the minority are needed to pass the bill, it's never brought to a vote.

But the Hastert rule doesn't apply to the election of the Speaker because the vote is mandatory. Pelosi faced a similar challenge to her position as speaker last term. But she was able to resolve it before the vote. I think part of the difference is that the progressive wing of the D party is not anti-government. That gives them incentive to compromise with more centrist leadership. One of the big proposals by the progressive caucus was the Green New Deal. It didn't happen, and Pelosi still was able to become speaker.

[Res Ipsa]

Results of Round 9: no substantive change. Still 20 dissenters and one "present" vote. Dissenters went 17 for Donalds and 3 for Hearn. The Trumpmentum went away.

ETA: McCarthy actually lost a vote. Ken Buck, a McCarthy supporter, is en route to some kind of medical appointment and reportedly will miss any further votes today and tomorrow.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Hrm. Unless news outlets are misreporting it, I’m pretty sure it was a nomination. But this process is fairly mysterious to me, so I’m not sure if vote and nominate are the same thing essentially:

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6318241897112

Lol @ Trump:

https://gyazo.com/29bcccb4052b2f9995401f369ed69d2e

- Doc

Just from watching the process (which I'm doing on C-SPAN), nominations happen before the vote starts. I've been tracking the nominations for each round in this thread. However, the reps can vote for anyone they want, whether that person was nominated or not. I'm not surprised that Fox got this wrong.

BBC reported Gaetz nominated Trump. Do you have information he was nominated by someone else?

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

Just from watching the process (which I'm doing on C-SPAN), nominations happen before the vote starts. I've been tracking the nominations for each round in this thread. However, the reps can vote for anyone they want, whether that person was nominated or not. I'm not surprised that Fox got this wrong.

BBC reported Gaetz nominated Trump. Do you have information he was nominated by someone else?

- Doc

No. "Nomination" occurs before the vote starts. Nominating works something like this: a member stands, the chair asks "for what purpose does the member rise?" The member says "I rise to nominate XXX for the office of Speaker." It's pretty formulaic. Then the nominator gives a short speech. I've listed the persons nominated in each round by listening to the proceedings live. For the R's, I've included the person who makes the nomination. I've been listening pretty carefully, and I didn't hear Gaetz nominate Trump.

Gaetz did vote for Trump twice. The House members-elect can vote for anyone they want -- they are not restricted to candidates that have been nominated.

I think what you're seeing is sloppy language. If you've seen a clip of Gaetz giving a nomination speech, as opposed to just voting, that would lead me to believe I missed something and I'd change my mind.

[Res Ipsa]

Round 10: Fight!!!!!

(1) McCarthy, nominated by Juan Ciscomani (AZ)

I was born in Mexico. My father drove a bus all his life, and his son was able to become a member of the House. Where else could this happen? Nowhere! Every American should have the right to write their own story. We need to step up now and stand united. I'm proud to be the first naturalized citizen elected to Congress from Arizona. No other country has the opportunities we have in America.

(2) Jeffries, nominated by Pete Aguilar (CA)

[Story about how Hakim walked to school in NYC as a child, escorting his younger brother. Okayyyyyyy. Maybe shorten this up a little?]

(3) Donalds, nominated by Anna Luna (Florida).

I must tell my colleague across the aisle: No democrat will be elected speaker by this congress. [uh, duhhhhh].

(4) Heard, nominated by Lauren Boebert (CO)

Kevin doesn't have the votes. Let's move on. [Short and sweet]

Trivia: the last time a speaker election went to a 10th vote was 1859.

Vote!!

[Res Ipsa]

BBC reported Gaetz nominated Trump. Do you have information he was nominated by someone else?

- Doc

No. "Nomination" occurs before the vote starts. Nominating works something like this: a member stands, the chair asks "for what purpose does the member rise?" The member says "I rise to nominate XXX for the office of Speaker." It's pretty formulaic. Then the nominator gives a short speech. I've listed the persons nominated in each round by listening to the proceedings live. For the R's, I've included the person who makes the nomination. I've been listening pretty carefully, and I didn't hear Gaetz nominate Trump.

Gaetz did vote for Trump twice. The House members-elect can vote for anyone they want -- they are not restricted to candidates that have been nominated.

I think what you're seeing is sloppy language. If you've seen a clip of Gaetz giving a nomination speech, as opposed to just voting, that would lead me to believe I missed something and I'd change my mind.

ETA: On the subject of Gaetz, before the session started this morning, the cameras showed him addressing a small group of reps I didn't recognize. He had a big crap-eating grin as he spoke. He said something that the group reacted to with surprise and amusement. He seemed to follow that up with something like "no, really, I'm serious." I'm guessing he was telling them about his intention to vote for Trump.