I guess I'll be the wet blanket and call it for Trump. Odds of Trump winning the general, .001, odds winning electorate, .51.
honorentheos wrote:So here's a less hopeful prediction. I thing the odds are if Arizona goes for Harris there will be violence in the streets here.
I know nothing about polling, and while I think Lichtman makes sense (he's also a loose cannon as he could be the reason why Democrat's couldn't give up Biden until the breaking point), his model is limited, as he himself shows. As he explains, many Floridians had their ballots rejected for the same technicality (confusion; writing the name of the president in along with checking the box), which arguably lost the election for Gore.
I'm happy to accept the polls as slightly favoring Harris, but I must weigh in factors outside of polling. I've done no research here, I'm just speculating based on my own narrow observation. I'm right there with h. I live in a swing state, and whether there's actual social media collusion or something is just in the air, I think there is a real voter intimidation problem likely spanning every swing state; it feels very different than 2020.
I've mentioned before that Harris signs get removed from the local voting tent within hours of being planted, while the Trump signs multiplied to well over a hundred; as if it were a joke. I could only see a trace of a single Harris sign that was face down in the mud last drive by. Keeping my eye out as I've driven around town the last few days, and there are no Harris signs anywhere, just Trump and local stuff. Trumpers, with their zero moral compass, have removed them all. In my neighborhood, there are five Trump sings on the street that I walk daily, whereas in 2020, I believe there was only 1. There are no Harris signs; nobody want's their house vandalized or get stalked, I'm sure.
Here's the thing about that: It's not that there are 100 Trump signs. It's the subtext that Trump's guys are "standing by", that the sign situation is their doing, and let it be a warning to anyone who dares vote against Trump. I voted pretty early, and I had no issues at the voting tent. Nobody was in the parking lot. I dropped off my ballot; asked a couple of questions, and I got zero indication that the workers there were up to no good or anything. That part was positive. However, I drove by several times after I noticed the Harris signs disappearing, and the parking lot situation got interesting. It's a big parking lot, and as the crowds increased, there seemed to be gatherings of Trumpers on the opposite side of the tent, where the entrance is. No Trump flags, but two or three trucks jacked up with American flags planted in them, and guys with Trump beards outside talking. Obviously they aren't there to vote. I live in a pretty good area, and I'm extrapolating from what I've seen here, that in denser and poorer areas it's worse.
So if you're headed to the tent, maybe you're a woman by yourself, and you see the sign situation and all the Trumpers watching as you pull in, then that only has to deter a small percentage of voters in a tight race, maybe even one out of a hundred. It could easily be reasoned that Harris is ahead in the polls, so why risk it?
I don't want to say if Trump wins its only because of intimidation, if he wins by more than a percent, then I'm willing to say that he would have won anyway. But yeah, I think the unethical behavior of his most ardent supporters in swing states may just win it for him.
Social distancing has likely already begun to flatten the curve...Continue to research good antivirals and vaccine candidates. Make everyone wear masks. -- J.D. Vance
