Gadianton wrote: ↑Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:38 pm
Ajax wrote:You're so right about this. I said Zelensky should have been more willing to make some concessions for peace a couple weeks ago. The window for an off ramp appears to be closing. I'd rather have peace than justice right now.
Well of course. So does Donald Trump. If NATO could have been destabilized and Ukraine not fed weapons, perhaps the war would have went quickly even with Russia's incompetence. Certainly, it could have been played in a way where there were no threats of nuclear weapons against America and sanctions that threaten oil prices for right-wingers. Trump has what, 15 years left at the most?
Letting Russia sweep in and take Ukraine and several other countries and locking those acquisitions down could take a few years, and the whole of Europe is a huge buffer for us. Trump could go to his grave living the good, easy life, and by the time Russia is ready to be a problem for America, its ultimate objective, we'll be dead and the problem can be passed on to the grandkids. A Russia controlling half of Europe in addition to its nuclear arsenal will only be a bigger problem then.
The best argument from a global strategy pov for America for inaction would be, if Gunner's guy Zeihan is right (I've probably seen about 10 of his videos) then Russia will implode economically anyway. However, then you have mob factions controlling nukes.
The more the world unites against them, the more it feeds into Putin's paranoia
The only answer for the Trump loyalists of the right-wing, should they yet prevail, is enjoy the now, which is pretty much the only strategy they've ever had anyway. As long as things can be good for Ajax personally tomorrow, world politics should revolve around achieving that.
Putin cares more about Russia than Trump or Ajax care about America. It's not likely he'll end the world just because he can't have Ukraine. But it's enough of a possibility that it makes you want to think it through a thousand times, and yet, there's no time to think.
I think it's a mistake to see a desperate Putin as the ultimate danger. The ultimate danger is a Putin ready to go all-in. When you're ready to go all-in, you've already planned to be desperate and unpredictable if things don't go your way, and we know before the fact that things can't go his way. As every strategist points out, Putin doesn't have the economy, the manpower, or technology, or expertise to take half of Europe. If Ukraine can't stop him, Poland will, maybe even without NATO. And so Putin in the near future, having already decided to go all in, is going to hit the wall and be desperate, whether it's after taking zero countries or taking five. You can buy a little time for dealing with desperate Putin and that's all. So, it would probably be best for NATO to announce a special operation 24 hours in advance with clear and specific parameters laid out, to take place cleanly within Ukraine's borders, wipe every last troop out and then stop and make it clear the border is secure. then pray.