Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Gunnar
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

Chap wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:06 pm
Will no-one think of the optometrists?

This from the man whose sig line reads:
And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
At what stage do you think the Confederacy should have 'preferred peace to [what it saw as] justice'?
:lol: Good comeback, Chap!
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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Bret Ripley
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Chap wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:06 pm
This from the man whose sig line reads:
And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
At what stage do you think the Confederacy should have 'preferred peace to [what it saw as] justice'?
"There's no telling what Stonewall Jackson would have accomplished had he only gotten around to cultivating the necessary sense of philosophical detachment. The bottle stands by you, sir." (U.S. Grant during a post-war pub crawl. Probably.)
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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At least we now know not to be afraid of a civil war.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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‘The Russians are trying to obliterate us. You think that we’d agree to half-measures now?’
Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of occupied Melitopol, says the battle for Donbas is also a fight for global security


Guardian, Shaun Walker in Zaporizhzhia, 9 April 2022

Just a sample of how people are thinking and feeling. There's a lot more like this in the article ...

Fedorov, who was kidnapped by Russian soldiers and eventually swapped in a prisoner exchange, now works from an office in Zaporizhzhia. After a week in which news of horrific war crimes in Bucha and other small towns near Kyiv has shocked the world, Fedorov’s demeanour in an interview with the Observer was characteristic of a new Ukrainian resolve to continue fighting the Russian assault.

“We should not talk about half measures. Today, all the red lines are crossed. Thousands of peaceful citizens have been killed,” said Fedorov, frequently breaking off to field calls on two different phones about continued evacuations from occupied Melitopol.

He reacted angrily to a question about whether Ukraine should still attempt to negotiate a peace settlement: “Bucha has been obliterated, f*****g obliterated. And you think we’re going to agree to half measures?”

This sentiment is widely shared and suggests the battle for Donbas could be long and bloody, involving a more focused and determined Russian attack force, as well as a rejuvenated and vengeful Ukrainian army, fighting on terrain where the war has been continuing for the past eight years.
Maksutov:
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ajax18
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Gadianton wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:38 pm
Ajax wrote:You're so right about this. I said Zelensky should have been more willing to make some concessions for peace a couple weeks ago. The window for an off ramp appears to be closing. I'd rather have peace than justice right now.
Well of course. So does Donald Trump. If NATO could have been destabilized and Ukraine not fed weapons, perhaps the war would have went quickly even with Russia's incompetence. Certainly, it could have been played in a way where there were no threats of nuclear weapons against America and sanctions that threaten oil prices for right-wingers. Trump has what, 15 years left at the most?

Letting Russia sweep in and take Ukraine and several other countries and locking those acquisitions down could take a few years, and the whole of Europe is a huge buffer for us. Trump could go to his grave living the good, easy life, and by the time Russia is ready to be a problem for America, its ultimate objective, we'll be dead and the problem can be passed on to the grandkids. A Russia controlling half of Europe in addition to its nuclear arsenal will only be a bigger problem then.

The best argument from a global strategy pov for America for inaction would be, if Gunner's guy Zeihan is right (I've probably seen about 10 of his videos) then Russia will implode economically anyway. However, then you have mob factions controlling nukes.
The more the world unites against them, the more it feeds into Putin's paranoia
The only answer for the Trump loyalists of the right-wing, should they yet prevail, is enjoy the now, which is pretty much the only strategy they've ever had anyway. As long as things can be good for Ajax personally tomorrow, world politics should revolve around achieving that.

Putin cares more about Russia than Trump or Ajax care about America. It's not likely he'll end the world just because he can't have Ukraine. But it's enough of a possibility that it makes you want to think it through a thousand times, and yet, there's no time to think.

I think it's a mistake to see a desperate Putin as the ultimate danger. The ultimate danger is a Putin ready to go all-in. When you're ready to go all-in, you've already planned to be desperate and unpredictable if things don't go your way, and we know before the fact that things can't go his way. As every strategist points out, Putin doesn't have the economy, the manpower, or technology, or expertise to take half of Europe. If Ukraine can't stop him, Poland will, maybe even without NATO. And so Putin in the near future, having already decided to go all in, is going to hit the wall and be desperate, whether it's after taking zero countries or taking five. You can buy a little time for dealing with desperate Putin and that's all. So, it would probably be best for NATO to announce a special operation 24 hours in advance with clear and specific parameters laid out, to take place cleanly within Ukraine's borders, wipe every last troop out and then stop and make it clear the border is secure. then pray.
Putin would stop at Ukraine.
And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
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Gadianton
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Putin would stop at Ukraine.
why?
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ajax18
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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At what stage do you think the Confederacy should have 'preferred peace to [what it saw as] justice'?
Confederate leaders went to General Lee and pointed out that they could no longer mount a conventional war against the Union but offered to continue to fight in a guerrilla campaign. General Lee declined saying that this was not honorable. In any event, you're comparing apples to kiwis given that the union didn't possess nuclear weapons nor threaten to use them upon anyone who supplied the confederates with food and weapons.
And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
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ajax18
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by ajax18 »

Gadianton wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:50 am
Putin would stop at Ukraine.
why?
Because he knows he doesn't have the strength to do it. I think Putin believes that he should rule all northern slavic countries. As you said, if Putin wanted nuclear war he could have it right now. If you give him at least the parts of Ukraine in the east that were pro Russian anyway, it will allow him to save face and not go home completely empty handed. He'll have his buffer zone, his Crimean port (which was Russian before Krustchev anyway). If you concede nothing, he's only going to wratchet up the hostilities and the idea of nuclear war becomes more appeasing to him than it is now.
And when the Confederates saw Jackson standing fearless like a stonewall, the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

ajax18 wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 11:26 pm
Putin would stop at Ukraine.
I'm totally flabbergasted that even you could be that delusional! Are you totally ignorant of the atrocities Putin has already been responsible for, not only in Ukraine but in Aleppo and Drozny? Are you really unaware of the fact that Putin worked for the KGB under Stalin, one of the cruelest and most evil despots in history, and whom Putin openly admires as a hero, and wishes to emulate? Have you not heard what Putin himself says about aspiring to reacquire not only Ukraine, but to to reaquire and re-subjugate all the other republics and nations that broke away from the USSR to Russian rule? He makes no secret of the fact that his eventual goal is to accomplish precisey that by any means necessary. He leaves no doubt that he doesn't care who or how many he has to hurt to accomplish that.
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gunnar »

ajax18 wrote:
Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:23 am
Because he knows he doesn't have the strength to do it. I think Putin believes that he should rule all northern slavic countries. As you said, if Putin wanted nuclear war he could have it right now. If you give him at least the parts of Ukraine in the east that were pro Russian anyway, it will allow him to save face and not go home completely empty handed. He'll have his buffer zone, his Crimean port (which was Russian before Krustchev anyway). If you concede nothing, he's only going to wratchet up the hostilities and the idea of nuclear war becomes more appeasing to him than it is now.
The problem with that argument is that even much of the Russian Speaking formerly pro Russian populace of Eastern Ukraine are so aghast at what Putin has been doing in Ukraine, that they no longer want to be any part of Russia. Surely you must realize that the bombs and artillery that are killing so many in the cities of the Donbas region don't distinguish between Russian and Ukrainian speakers or between pro and anti Russian people, don't you? None of them are being spared simply because they speak Russian or claim to be Pro Russia. In fact, if anything, because Putin is trying so hard now to concentrate on the cities in the Donbas region in particular, the inhabitants of those cities, including those who are Russian speaking and/or have ever expressed pro Russian sentiments are probably getting the worst of it. Thus Putin's war has only made Ukrainians, in general, including the Russian speaking ones, more determinedly anti-Russian than ever!
No precept or claim is more suspect or more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.
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